EPAC: POLO - Post-Tropical

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#101 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:04 pm

Recon is finding lower winds than anticipated. 62kt flight-level winds, 50kt surface winds.
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#102 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:20 pm

In other words, unless it strengthens, Polo is looking at a post-season downgrade. 50-55 kt best intensity guess.
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#103 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:29 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:In other words, unless it strengthens, Polo is looking at a post-season downgrade. 50-55 kt best intensity guess.

The pressure is around 983mb, so it's possible that this was stronger last night. Hard to say without recon though.
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Hurricane

#104 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:42 pm

Polo likely peaked during yesterday evening, microwave data also confirmed the low level structure has been deteriorating since then
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#105 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:40 pm

Downgraded.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A WEAKER POLO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 105.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES




TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

An Air Force reconnaissance plane just traversed the core of Polo,
and although a dropsonde measured a pressure of 983 mb with 25 kt
winds in the center, neither the flight-level nor SFMR-winds in any
quadrant support keeping Polo at hurricane intensity. The
maximum winds have been lowered to 60 kt in this advisory. This
is also reflected in the cloud pattern, which has become a little
bit disrupted in the past few hours. Polo had the opportunity to
strengthen, but it appears that the northeasterly shear increased
earlier than anticipated, halting the intensification. Little
change in strength is expected for the next 12 hours or so, but
a gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin in 24 hours, as
indicated by most of the guidance.

There is no change in the forecast track, and as in previous runs,
most of the guidance maintains Polo moving toward the northwest or
west-northwest around the periphery of an amplifying mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico. On the forecast track, the cyclone will pass
well south of the southwestern coast of Mexico and well south of the
southern Baja California peninsula. The confidence in the track
forecast is relatively high since both the multi-model consensus
TVCN and the average of the GFS and the ECMWF models, GFEX, are
keeping Polo well removed from land. However, any unexpected
deviation to the right of the track could require the issuance of a
tropical storm watch for the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 17.8N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.5N 106.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 19.2N 107.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 20.8N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 22.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#106 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:39 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

There has been little change in organization since the Hurricane
Hunters investigated the storm this afternoon. A blend of
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as
ADT numbers from UW-CIMSS, supports holding the intensity at 60 kt
for this advisory. Not much change in strength is likely in the
short term. However east-northeasterly shear, associated with a
large upper-level anticyclone anchored over northwestern Mexico, is
forecast to increase over Polo during the next several days. This,
along with less favorable thermodynamic conditions, should lead to
gradual weakening of the storm through the forecast period. The
official wind speed forecast is the same as the previous one. This
is not far from the Decay-SHIPS guidance for the first couple of
days of the forecast period, and a little above it thereafter.

The motion continues northwestward and, at least temporarily, a
little faster or 320/8 kt. Global models indicate that a ridge is
forecast to develop westward from a mid-troposphere high pressure
system over northern Mexico during the next several days. This
should cause the track of Polo to gradually bend toward the
west-northwest. By late in the forecast period, the weakening
cyclone should be drifting westward in the shallow low-level flow.
The official track forecast has been nudged just a little northward
on account of the recent faster northwestward motion. This is close
to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF predictions, and slightly south
of the multi-model consensus TVCE.

Although the northward shift is not large, given the uncertainties
in the track and future wind radii, it is prudent to issued a
tropical storm watch for the extreme southern Baja California
peninsula at this time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 18.4N 106.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 19.0N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 19.8N 108.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 20.6N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 21.3N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 22.2N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 22.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 22.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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#107 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:51 am

EP, 17, 2014091912, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1077W, 60, 981, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 70, 60, 70, 1008, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, POLO, D,
EP, 17, 2014091912, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1077W, 60, 981, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 20, 1008, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, POLO, D,
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#108 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:03 am

That's quite unexpected

Image

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 978.4mb/ 74.6kt

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#109 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:58 am

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Data from a SSMI/S satellite at 1144 UTC revealed that the center
of Polo was a little farther to the southeast than previously
indicated. The initial position has then been adjusted accordingly.

The cloud pattern has not changed very much, and a blend of
satellite intensity estimates with an earlier ASCAT pass is
consistent in keeping the winds at 60 kt. Most of the guidance
show a significant increase in the easterly shear over Polo, and
with cooler waters along the expected track of Polo, the NHC
forecast calls for weakening. Polo will likely be a remnant low in
96 hours or earlier.

The initial motion is a little uncertain given the small adjustment
in the initial position. The best estimate is toward the west-
northwest or 300 degrees at 6 kt. The mid-level ridge over northern
Mexico is forecast to build westward, and this pattern should force
Polo to move on a west-northwest to west track during the next
several days. The NHC forecast is not very different from the
previous one, except during the first 12 hours or so due to the
adjustment of the initial position. The rest of the forecast
forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus and to the
average of the GFS and the ECMWF. These models, as well as the
official forecast, keep the center of Polo well south of the the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 19.3N 107.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 19.8N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 20.7N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 21.4N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.7N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z 22.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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#110 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:00 am

Odd, they say they kept the winds at 60 knts yet it says Polo is now 55 knts.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#111 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 19, 2014 3:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Despite the amount of microwave and ASCAT data available earlier, it
was difficult to precisely locate the center of Polo. It appears
that the cyclone spent several hours meandering or perhaps reforming
within the convection. Currently, the cloud pattern is not very
different from 24 hours ago, and both ASCAT data around 1630 UTC and
the latest Dvorak estimates support an initial intensity of 60 kt.
In terms of the wind field, the same ASCAT data indicate that Polo
has a large area of tropical storm force winds in the southeast
quadrant, but a much smaller area of 34-kt winds in the northern
semicircle.

The combination of strong unfavorable upper-level easterly winds
over Polo and cool waters should result in gradual weakening.
Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for Polo to become a depression
or remnant low in about 3 to 4 days well to west of Baja California.
This is consistent with most of the guidance, primarily the
intensity consensus ICON and LGEM model.

Polo has resumed its northwest track at about 5 knots. A strong
mid-level ridge, which is forecast to amplify to the north of the
cyclone, will keep Polo on a general west-northwest to west track
for the next 3 to 5 days. NHC forecasts have been very consistent
for several cycles in bringing the cyclone well south of the Baja
California peninsula, and this is the solution provided by the
multi-model consensus TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 19.4N 108.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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#112 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Sep 19, 2014 4:01 pm

What I didn't understand is why was the media was continuously saying that Polo would hit MX or the Baja (more than one source too) when the NHC never showed it coming that close to those places? They would say "As Polo makes its way into the Baja..." Very strange!
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#113 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 19, 2014 8:16 pm

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192350
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHEAST...
...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 107.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


EP, 17, 2014092000, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1079W, 55, 991, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 90, 80, 40, 1008, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, POLO, M,
EP, 17, 2014092000, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1079W, 55, 991, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 60, 50, 0, 1008, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, POLO, M,
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#114 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:43 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO SLOWLY WEAKENING...
...FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 108.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

An SSM/I pass around 2200 UTC and late-day visible imagery indicated
that the center of Polo was exposed on the northeastern edge of the
deep convection. The cloud pattern has deteriorated quite a bit
during the past few hours, with little structure seen in the warming
cloud tops as they are pushed south and west of the center by about
30 kt of easterly shear. The initial intensity has been lowered to
50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB. Steady weakening is forecast as the shear is
expected to continue and the cyclone will be moving into a drier
environment over gradually cooler SSTs during the next few days.
Polo should become a remnant low in about 3 days west of the Baja
California peninsula. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted
downward from the previous one and is close to the latest IVCN
consensus.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/07 given the erratic
movement of the center in the last 12 to 18 hours. Polo should
gradually turn west-northwestward in the next 24 hours as a mid-
level ridge builds north of the tropical cyclone. Late in the
period, much of the guidance shows the shallow remnant low turning
south-southwestward as a low-level ridge to the west becomes the
dominant steering mechanism. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted
a little to the right in the first 48 hours given the center
position and motion, and lies a little north of a blend of the GFS
and ECMWF models. Late in the period, the NHC forecast has been
adjusted toward the south, but not as far south as the GFS and ECMWF
tracks.

Even with the slight northward shift in the track, tropical storm
force winds are likely to remain south of the Baja California
peninsula since Polo is now forecast to weaken a little faster.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 20.1N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 20.7N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 21.3N 110.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 22.4N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z 22.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#115 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 20, 2014 5:34 am

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Polo continues to lose organization due to the effects of 25-30 kt
of easterly vertical wind shear. The low-level center is exposed
to the northeast of the convection, and the convection has
decreased in both coverage and intensity over the last 24 hours.
In addition, water vapor imagery shows upper-level dry air moving
over the low-level center. Satellite intensity estimates are 55 kt
from TAFB and 45 kt from SAB. Based on these data and trends since
the last advisory, the initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat
uncertain 45 kt.

The initial motion is 315/6. Polo should gradually turn west-
northwestward in the next 24-36 hours as a mid-level ridge builds
north of the cyclone. Late in the forecast period, the dynamical
guidance shows the shallow remnant low turning south-southwestward
as a low-level ridge to the west becomes the dominant steering
mechanism. During the first 48 hours, the new track forecast is
again a little to the north of the previous forecast, and it lies a
little to the south of the center of the guidance envelope. After
that time, the new forecast is similar to the previous forecast.

The large-scale models forecast the shear to continue for the next
72 hours while Polo moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and
into a dryer air mass. This combination should cause steady
weakening, with the cyclone forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression in about 36 hours and to degenerate into a remnant low by
72 hours. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous
advisory and is a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and intensity consensus
guidance.

Based on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force
winds are most likely to remain south of the Baja California
peninsula. However, any deviation to the north of the forecast
track could bring tropical storm force winds to the southern Baja
California peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 20.5N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 21.1N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 21.8N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 22.2N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 22.5N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 22.5N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z 21.5N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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#116 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:08 am

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201131
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO FORECAST TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 108.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS POLO
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#117 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:38 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...WEAKENING POLO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 109.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Although the convection has increased a little in the past
couple of hours, Polo is still a sheared cyclone. The cloud pattern
consists of a tight swirl of low clouds located on the northeastern
edge of an area of intermittent deep convection. Based on the trend
of satellite estimates, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40
kt, and these winds are probably occurring in the convection in the
southwest quadrant. The shear is forecast to increase even further,
and the cyclone is heading toward cooler waters. The combination of
these two factors should result in additional weakening, and Polo is
expected to become a tropical depression in about 24 hours. In fact,
the SHIPS and LGEM models dissipate the cyclone by 36 hours.

Polo has been moving between the northwest and west-northwest since
yesterday at about 5 to 7 kt. The cyclone is trapped south of an
amplifying mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this pattern should
force Polo to move on a west-northwest to west track until
dissipation in a few days. The NHC forecast has not changed, and
continues to be very close to the multi-model consensus.

Based on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force
winds are anticipated to remain south of the Baja California
peninsula. Since any unexpected deviation to the north of the
forecast track could bring tropical storm force winds to the coast,
the government of Mexico has wisely opted to maintain the tropical
storm watch until Polo moves away from Baja California.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 20.9N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 21.3N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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#118 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 20, 2014 1:05 pm

TXPZ24 KNES 201217
TCSENP

A. 17E (POLO)

B. 20/1200Z

C. 20.7N

D. 108.6W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/2.5/W2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY AND DT=1.5 BASED ON SHEAR
MATRIX OF D3 P2 S1. MET ON RAPID CURVE IS 2.0 BUT PAT=1.5. NEW BURSTING
CONVECTION IN SW QUAD OF SYSTEM BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR BANDING. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/0842Z 20.5N 108.4W TMI


...SWANSON
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#119 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 20, 2014 3:38 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 109.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Polo is a sheared cyclone, and the cloud pattern consists of a tight
swirl of low clouds with intermittent deep convection. The initial
intensity is kept at 40 kt at this time, but given the hostile
environment and the cooler waters, weakening is forecast. Polo will
likely become a remnant low in about 36 hours.

Polo has been moving between northwest and west-northwest since
yesterday at about 5 to 7 kt. The cyclone is trapped south of an
amplifying mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this pattern should
force Polo to move on a west-northwest to west track for the next 2
to 3 days, and then the remnant low should meander until
dissipation. The NHC forecast has not changed, and continues to be
very close to the multi-model consensus.

Based on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force
winds are anticipated to remain south of the Baja California
peninsula. Since any unexpected deviation to the north of the
forecast track could bring tropical storm force winds to the coast,
the Government of Mexico is keeping the tropical storm watch until
Polo begins to move away from Baja California Sur.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 21.2N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 22.0N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 22.3N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1800Z 22.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1800Z 21.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1800Z 20.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#120 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...POLO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 109.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Polo continues to be buffeted by 25 to 30 kt of easterly shear, and
the cloud pattern features only small patches of disorganized deep
convection west of the center location. Dvorak estimates are slowly
decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt based on
the latest estimate from TAFB. Given the continued shear and a track
over cooler waters, Polo is forecast to gradually weaken to a
depression and then to a remnant low by 36 hours, but this could
occur sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 300/06. Polo moved a little to the
right of the previous forecast track over the past few hours, but
the overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. The
weakening cyclone will continue west-northwestward and then turn
westward as a mid-level ridge builds to the north during the next
couple of days. Afterward, the weak remnant low should turn
southwestward under the influence of a low-level ridge to the west.
The guidance has shifted to the right this cycle, showing a broader
westward and then southwestward turn through dissipation. Based on
this shift, and the initial position and motion, the NHC track has
been shifted about 30 miles to the right of the previous official
forecast toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus through 48
hours, and is largely an update of the previous forecast after that
time.

Based on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force
winds are expected to remain south of the Baja California peninsula.
Since any unexpected deviation to the north of the forecast track
could still bring tropical storm force winds to the coast, the
Government of Mexico is keeping the tropical storm watch until Polo
begins to move away from Baja California Sur.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 21.6N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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