EPAC: POLO - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:10 am

Roxy wrote:Awww crap! I am supposed to go to Cabo next week....I figured they could clean up from one...but if another comes.....dang it!


Too soon to say if the airport will re-open by then.
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:32 am

Here we go again! Did Odile leave a cold wake of upwelling and if so, is Polo going to pass over it? Early model plots seem to suggest a slightly more easterly track for Polo, this may be more of a mainland threat but it it might be a Baja threat as well.

Roxy wrote:Awww crap! I am supposed to go to Cabo next week....I figured they could clean up from one...but if another comes.....dang it!


Although it pains me to say this because I know that their economy desperately needs new tourist dollars right now, you may want to postpone your plans if you can. I'm not even saying this because of Polo (lightning rarely strikes twice) but just because they're so devastated right now.
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:00 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 99.4W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES




TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Microwave data earlier today indicated that the center of
Polo was to the north of the main convection due to moderate
northeasterly shear. Since that time, the thunderstorm
activity has increased near the center despite the shear, but
the cloud pattern is still somewhat disrupted. Dvorak intensity
numbers support an initial intensity of 35 kt. The ocean is plenty
warm in that area, and with the shear expected to decrease, the NHC
forecast calls for strengthening, making Polo a hurricane in about
48 hours. This is in good agreement with the intensity consensus
ICON.

Polo is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at about 10
kt. The flow around a mid-level ridge over the southwestern
United States and northern Mexico is controlling the track of
Polo. This ridge is forecast to persist, keeping Polo on a general
northwestward track for the next 3 to 4 days. The ECMWF
model forecasts the ridge to weaken faster than the GFS, bringing
the center of the storm closer to the coast. At this time, the NHC
forecast follows the multi-model consensus TVCN, and the average
track between the GFS and the ECMWF, keeping Polo on a track
parallel to the southwest coast of Mexico. Polo is expected to turn
to the west by the end of the forecast period as a ridge to the
north rebuilds.

The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a
portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico from Zihuatanejo to
Cabo Corrientes.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 12.8N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 13.8N 100.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 15.0N 102.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 17.5N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 19.5N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 21.0N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 22.0N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:20 am

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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:33 am

Dr Jeff Masters discussion of TS Polo.

Tropical Storm Polo a threat to Southwest Mexico

The Pacific coast of Mexico has a new heavy rainfall threat to be concerned with--Tropical Storm Polo, which formed about 360 miles SSE of Acapulco at 5 am EDT Tuesday. Polo is expected to head northwest towards the Pacific coast of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday, and will be capable of bringing heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches of rain to the coast of Southwest Mexico near Manzanillo Wednesday through Friday. While most of our reliable forecast models show Polo will miss making landfall, the reliable European model has the storm hitting Mexico near Manzanillo on Thursday, while the UKMET model shows Polo coming very close to the tip of the Baja Peninsula on Sunday. The 11 am EDT WInd Probability Forecast from NHC gives Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 31% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Polo, and a 2% chance of hurricane-force winds. Satellite loops show that Polo has plenty of heavy thunderstorms, but the storm is just beginning to get organized.
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:46 am

Roxy wrote:Awww crap! I am supposed to go to Cabo next week....I figured they could clean up from one...but if another comes.....dang it!


cabo will not be the cabo you remember or hoped for even by the end of next week...divert somewhere else unless you you want to vacation in a disaster zone which by the way can be ok..done it myself, not many tourists around which can be a good thing..just depends on how fast they can get it to at least a low level standard of living
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:57 am

Roxy wrote:Awww crap! I am supposed to go to Cabo next week....I figured they could clean up from one...but if another comes.....dang it!


I would cancel that trip. Simply put, Cabo is a disaster area. They may still not have electricity or running water in many areas.
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:02 pm

00Z Euro takes Polo inland 500 miles south of Baja into Mexico near Manzanillo. Euro did better than the GFS with Odille & Norbert. GFS takes Polo west of the Baja Peninsula.
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#49 Postby zeehag » Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:57 pm

barra de navidad is still nice, but , if you are a magnet for storms, please remain faaarrr away from here. please... my feline begs you. deeply.

"00Z Euro takes Polo inland 500 miles south of Baja into Mexico near Manzanillo. Euro did better than the GFS with Odille & Norbert. GFS takes Polo west of the Baja Peninsula."

ok. how is it gonna affect 19.1 north and 104.5 west, please.
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:59 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...POLO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 99.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES
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Re:

#51 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:03 pm

zeehag wrote:barra de navidad is still nice, but , if you are a magnet for storms, please remain faaarrr away from here. please... my feline begs you. deeply.

"00Z Euro takes Polo inland 500 miles south of Baja into Mexico near Manzanillo. Euro did better than the GFS with Odille & Norbert. GFS takes Polo west of the Baja Peninsula."

ok. how is it gonna affect 19.1 north and 104.5 west, please.


You should be prepared for a hurricane just in case it does come your way. I'd rather prepare for nothing than be unprepared when there is something.
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:16 pm

And now the 12Z Euro keeps Polo moving NNW and NOT moving inland into Mexico near Manzanillo. It stalls Polo south of 20N and drifts it westward through 5 days...
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:And now the 12Z Euro keeps Polo moving NNW and NOT moving inland into Mexico near Manzanillo. It stalls Polo south of 20N and drifts it westward through 5 days...


That scenario sounds like Polo would be torn apart by shear as it stalls and then a remnant low drifts westward, but I haven't seen the Euro output myself.

Certainly the whole Mexican west coast should continue to watch this carefully.
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#54 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:51 pm

Weak, it goes north west. Strong, I think it smashes into Mexico.

But I certainly am surprised for them calling for it to only become a weak hurricane. Norbert and Odile both showed that they only needed a short amount of time of decent conditions to RI.

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Re:

#55 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:14 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Weak, it goes north west. Strong, I think it smashes into Mexico.

But I certainly am surprised for them calling for it to only become a weak hurricane. Norbert and Odile both showed that they only needed a short amount of time of decent conditions to RI.

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Remember Norbert and Odile left behind some cold waters.
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#56 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:18 pm

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Zoinks!!

Looks like Baja is taking Florida's '04 role as punching bag.
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#57 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:28 pm

17E POLO 140916 1700 12.0N 100.0W EPAC 35 1005

I don't know if this qualifies as the 18z Best Track, but it does look better than a few hours ago, so I'd personally estimate 40 knots.
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:35 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...POLO POISED TO TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 100.4W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES




TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized, with very
well defined cyclonically curved convective bands wrapping around a
small central dense overcast. An ASCAT-B pass over the cyclone
a few hours ago yields an initial intensity of 40 kt. The ocean is
plenty warm south of Mexico, and the shear is expected to decrease
during the next day or two. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls
for strengthening, making Polo a hurricane in about 36 hours, in
good agreement with the model consensus ICON. After 48 hours, most
of the guidance shows an increase in shear and no additional
development is anticipated, and in fact, some gradual weakening
should then begin.

Polo is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at about 10
kt, steered by the flow around a mid-level ridge over the
southwestern United States and northern Mexico. This ridge will
continue to steer Polo on a track parallel to and not too far from
the southwest coast of Mexico, and take the cyclone well south
of the Baja California peninsula. The ECMWF model, which
previously brought the cyclone closer to Mexico, has changed its
tune, and now keeps the cyclone offshore like the solution of the
GFS. This is reflected in a southward shift in the multi-model
consensus TVCN, which is very close to the NHC forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 13.2N 100.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 14.2N 101.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 16.8N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 17.8N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 21.0N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 22.5N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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#59 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:43 pm

I once again see this as a little conservative. My amateur and personal estimate would be around Category 2 or so.
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Re: Re:

#60 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:56 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Weak, it goes north west. Strong, I think it smashes into Mexico.

But I certainly am surprised for them calling for it to only become a weak hurricane. Norbert and Odile both showed that they only needed a short amount of time of decent conditions to RI.

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Remember Norbert and Odile left behind some cold waters.


Odile did, but Norbert was small and intensified later on. This has not yet reached Odile's latitude where it deepened.
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