EPAC: POLO - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby beoumont » Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:17 pm

Roxy wrote:Awww crap! I am supposed to go to Cabo next week....I figured they could clean up from one...but if another comes.....dang it!


As others have noted above: forget it; unless you are going there to help with the cleanup and providing human services. Make sure your typhoid and hepatitis vaccinations are up to date.

Even in the USA it takes several weeks, at least, to get the power back on in most areas (not all) after a cat #2, much less a cat #3 storm. In the USA the power crews from many states help recreate the grid in the cities affected; where are all those crews and equipment going to come from to restore Cabo's infrastructure? Same for cleaning up.

I am sure thousands of locals are homeless; and the logical place for the gov't to give them shelter would be the thousands of hotel rooms in the tourist zone. Will the gov't care about helping the high % of poor folks down there and do that? Hmmm.

Go to Cancun; similar tourist trap. Nice beaches.
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:09 pm

beoumont wrote:
Roxy wrote:Awww crap! I am supposed to go to Cabo next week....I figured they could clean up from one...but if another comes.....dang it!


As others have noted above: forget it; unless you are going there to help with the cleanup and providing human services. Make sure your typhoid and hepatitis vaccinations are up to date.

Even in the USA it takes several weeks, at least, to get the power back on in most areas (not all) after a cat #2, much less a cat #3 storm. In the USA the power crews from many states help recreate the grid in the cities affected; where are all those crews and equipment going to come from to restore Cabo's infrastructure? Same for cleaning up.

I am sure thousands of locals are homeless; and the logical place for the gov't to give them shelter would be the thousands of hotel rooms in the tourist zone. Will the gov't care about helping the high % of poor folks down there and do that? Hmmm.

Go to Cancun; similar tourist trap. Nice beaches.

Hopefully pollo stays west....was in cabo, felt like I was in USA, more English spoken then Miami, Costco and office max in cabo

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk
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#63 Postby zeehag » Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:57 pm

we ready fro almost anything, hoping for less,,,, love barra--no tan mucho ingles... awesome here. cabo is over rated...
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 16, 2014 6:40 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...POLO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 100.7W
ABOUT 245 MI...400 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:43 pm

00z Best Track up to 45kts.

EP, 17, 2014091700, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1010W, 45, 1000, TS
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...POLO A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 101.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Polo continues to gradually become better organized. The center is
located on the northern edge of an area of deep convection, and a
curved convective band has become better established in the western
semicircle. The initial intensity has been set to 45 kt based on
the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The SHIPS model shows the
shear decreasing below 10 kt during the next 24 hours, which in
combination with very warm SSTs above 29C should allow for
intensification in the short term. In fact, the SHIPS RI index
shows a 66 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours.
The official forecast has been adjusted upward in the short range,
and shows Polo becoming a hurricane by 24 hours. Easterly shear is
forecast to increase after that time, which should slow the pace
of strengthening. By the end of the period Polo will be moving over
cooler waters in a moderate shear environment, and gradual weakening
is expected. The new NHC intensity forecast is a a little above the
latest IVCN intensity consensus and is close to the SHIPS model
through the period.

A pair of timely SSMIS passes around 00 UTC were helpful in
establishing the initial position and the initial motion of 310/10.
The tropical cyclone will be steered northwestward for the next
several days by a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. By
day 5, the cyclone should turn toward the west as the ridge builds
westward to its north. The new NHC track is a little left of the
previous one through 24 hours due to the initial position and
motion, but is otherwise an update of the previous track. Through
the period, the official forecast is close to the TVCE multi-model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 13.8N 101.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 14.9N 102.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 16.2N 103.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 17.2N 105.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 18.2N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 19.7N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 21.3N 111.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 22.0N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#67 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:22 am

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

The overall organization of Polo has changed little in conventional
satellite imagery during the past few hours. However, an earlier
SSMIS microwave overpass showed a low-level ring, which suggests
that the inner-core is becoming better defined. The latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and UW/CIMSS still support an initial intensity
of 45 kt. Recent satellite imagery shows that upper-level outflow
is becoming better established over Polo. With the improved
inner-core structure and low shear forecast, steady strengthening is
expected during the next day or so. The statistical guidance
predicts less intensification than previously, but this could be due
to the lack of strengthening during the past 6 hours and its affect
on the persistence factor in the SHIPS model. Therefore, the new NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 24 hours,
but shows a slightly lower peak to be in better agreement with the
intensity consensus. In a couple of days, strong upper-level
easterly winds are expected to cause an increase in shear, which is
likely to halt further intensification. Weakening is expected later
in the period, due to the shear and the cyclone moving over
decreasing sea surface temperatures.

The initial motion estimate is 315/10 kt. Polo is forecast to move
northwestward during the next few days around the southwestern
portion of a mid-level ridge over northeastern Mexico. Later in
the period, the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward while
a ridge builds to its north. Although the model guidance is in
general agreement on this scenario, there are large differences in
how sharp Polo turns west-northwestward. The ECMWF and GFS show an
earlier west-northwestward turn and are along the southern edge of
the guidance envelope, meanwhile the UKMET and GFDL are on the
northern side. For now, the NHC forecast lies near the latest
multi-model consensus, which is also similar to the previous NHC
forecast track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 14.8N 101.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 15.8N 102.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 16.9N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 17.7N 105.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 18.5N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 19.9N 108.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 21.1N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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#68 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:54 am

EP, 17, 2014091712, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1021W, 50, 998, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 70, 60, 50, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, POLO, D,
EP, 17, 2014091712, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1021W, 50, 998, TS, 50, NEQ, 25, 25, 0, 25, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, POLO, D,
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#69 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:13 am

cycloneye wrote:TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER
-------
The statistical guidance
predicts less intensification than previously, but this could be due
to the lack of strengthening during the past 6 hours and its affect
on the persistence factor in the SHIPS model.
--------
$$
Forecaster Brown


This is what happened with the intensity models prior to Odile's intensification, isn't it?
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#70 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:55 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NOW ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 102.4W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO
TO PLAYA PERULA.



TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

The cloud pattern has continued to become better organized, and
the center is now more embedded within the area of deep convection
as indicated by satellite. The initial intensity has been increased
to 50 kt based on estimates from TAFB and SAB. There is still
some shear over the cyclone, but not strong enough to halt
intensification, and Polo is forecast to become a hurricane in 24
hours or so. After an expected peak intensity in about 36 hours,
strong upper-level northeasterly winds should become established
over Polo, resulting is gradual weakening. This is the solution
provided by most of the guidance, and the NHC forecast follows
closely the intensity consensus ICON.

Polo is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 9 knots,
steered by the flow around a mid-level ridge over northeastern
Mexico. Beyond 48 hours, most of the global models build the
ridge westward forcing Polo to move on a west-northwesterly track.
The bulk of the guidance keeps the core of Polo well south
of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, and so does the
NHC forecast. This forecast is not very different from the previous
one, and is placed between the multi-model consensus TVCN, and
lies between the average of the GFS and the ECMWF models.

A small deviation to the north of the track could bring stronger
winds to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Consequently,
the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for a
portion of the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 15.7N 102.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 16.6N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 17.5N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 18.8N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 20.0N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 22.0N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:30 pm

18z Best Track is up to almost a hurricane.

EP, 17, 2014091718, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1033W, 60, 991, TS
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#72 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:53 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...POLO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 103.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES




TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

Polo is intensifying, given the improvement of the cloud pattern
during the past several hours. In fact, there was a hint of an eye
feature embedded within a circular area of deep convection around
1800 UTC, but this feature has not been observed since then. Based
on the average of the T-numbers from SAB and TAFB, the initial
intensity is increased to 60 kt. There is an opportunity for Polo to
strengthen before the strong upper-level northeasterlies become
established over the cyclone in 48 hours as indicated by most of the
global models. The NHC forecast is near the upper boundary of the
intensity guidance.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
310 degrees at 10 knots. Most of the global models indicate that
the mid-level ridge over Mexico will build westward, and this
pattern will gradually steer Polo toward the west-northwest. On the
forecast track, the core of the cyclone will stay south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. This
official forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows both
the multi-model consensus TVCN, and the average of the GFS and the
ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 16.4N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.2N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 17.8N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 19.2N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 20.5N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 21.5N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#73 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:58 pm

somethingfunny wrote:
This is what happened with the intensity models prior to Odile's intensification, isn't it?


Yes, and Norbert too.
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#74 Postby Steve820 » Wed Sep 17, 2014 6:32 pm

It is almost a hurricane. I believe it will be upgraded next advisory. This means we'll have the 10th hurricane in a row!!! Geez, the hurricanes can't stop coming! :eek: The NHC is forecasting a peak of 80 knots/90 mph out of this guy. But, I'd say it has a shot at major status.
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Re:

#75 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 17, 2014 6:38 pm

Steve820 wrote:It is almost a hurricane. I believe it will be upgraded next advisory. This means we'll have the 10th hurricane in a row!!! Geez, the hurricanes can't stop coming! :eek: The NHC is forecasting a peak of 80 knots/90 mph out of this guy. But, I'd say it has a shot at major status.


Genevieve was not a hurricane in the EPAC, so it doesn't count .. still, 8 straight hurricanes are impressive
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 17, 2014 6:56 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
500 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

...POLO LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 104.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
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#77 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Sep 17, 2014 6:58 pm

So far they're keeping it west of the Baja though.
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Re: Re:

#78 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:15 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Steve820 wrote:It is almost a hurricane. I believe it will be upgraded next advisory. This means we'll have the 10th hurricane in a row!!! Geez, the hurricanes can't stop coming! :eek: The NHC is forecasting a peak of 80 knots/90 mph out of this guy. But, I'd say it has a shot at major status.


Genevieve was not a hurricane in the EPAC, so it doesn't count .. still, 8 straight hurricanes are impressive



EPAC continues to the dateline in HURDAT.
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Re: Re:

#79 Postby Ntxw » Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:26 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
Steve820 wrote:It is almost a hurricane. I believe it will be upgraded next advisory. This means we'll have the 10th hurricane in a row!!! Geez, the hurricanes can't stop coming! :eek: The NHC is forecasting a peak of 80 knots/90 mph out of this guy. But, I'd say it has a shot at major status.


Genevieve was not a hurricane in the EPAC, so it doesn't count .. still, 8 straight hurricanes are impressive



EPAC continues to the dateline in HURDAT.


Yeah when talking about all things final, CPAC belongs to EPAC count in ACE as well. Rightfully so, I mean we're just talking about an agency concerning mostly just Hawaii for CPAC. It's not like the far eastern WPAC is counted as CPAC.

Anyway, the good thing about 16E not getting named, the hurricane streak continues as mentioned previously here. Go with the most robust model.
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#80 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:41 pm

Polo cannot cause serious damage and get retired. We need to keep the possibility alive of having Marco and Polo active at the same time.
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