WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 21, 2014 5:53 am

Here we go!!
Image
98WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-120N-1530E

Image
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Sep 30, 2014 5:39 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Reason: To fix the title
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 21, 2014 9:15 am

12z Best Track:

98W INVEST 140921 1200 11.7N 151.1E WPAC 15 1010
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 21, 2014 9:58 am

Been gone and here is the latest discussion...

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.7N 151.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
211143Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS BROADLY
WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. A 211055Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK (05
TO 10 KNOT) ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER (20 TO 25 KNOT)
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:08 am

NWS GUAM:

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR AND INDICATE THAT A
MONSOON TROUGH FORMING SE OF GUAM WILL SPAWN A MONSOON
CIRCULATION NORTH OF CHUUK THAT WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:25 am

Image

98W INVEST 140921 1200 11.7N 151.1E WPAC 15 1007

Latest JTWC best track southeast of Guam
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:15 pm

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 212324
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
924 AM CHST MON SEP 22 2014

PMZ172-222300-
CHUUK-
924 AM CHST MON SEP 22 2014

...MONSOON CIRCULATION NORTH OF CHUUK DRIFTING NORTH...

A MONSOON CIRCULATION NORTH OF CHUUK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
AS IT DRIFTS NORTH. THE CIRCULATION...CENTERED NEAR 13N154E...IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT CURVES EASTWARD FROM NEAR
GUAM TO NORTH OF KOSRAE.

SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CHUUK STATE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT AT WENO. AN ADDITIONAL 2
TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF A BIT
THIS MORNING...BUT IF MONSOON SHOWERS FILL BACK IN WITHIN THE
SURGE...MUDSLIDE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DUE TO SOIL SATURATION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PLEASE STAY INFORMED ABOUT CURRENT WEATHER SITUATIONS BECAUSE THE
WEATHER CAN BE VERY CHANGEABLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY
AFFECTING MARINE ACTIVITIES. LISTEN FOR INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

$$

AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:24 pm

Image

EURO develops this and rides up the Northern Mariana Islands and quite powerful landfall in Okinawa...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:14 pm

000
WWMY80 PGUM 220345
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
145 PM CHST MON SEP 22 2014

GUZ001>004-230500-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
145 PM CHST MON SEP 22 2014

...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER FORMING SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

A MONSOON TROUGH HAS BECOME VERY ACTIVE FROM SOUTH OF GUAM TO THE
NORTH OF CHUUK. A BROAD ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
11N151E...WHICH IS ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SEVERAL LARGE AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

MOST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE CIRCULATION WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN
THE COMING DAYS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AND CAUSE PERIODS OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR BOTH GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.

THIS IS A DYNAMIC AND DEVELOPING WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY...SO PLEASE STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY
FURTHER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

SIMPSON/EDSON
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 12:19 am

98W INVEST 140922 0600 11.6N 149.9E WPAC 15 1006

Pressure down...

Located just west of anticyclone...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 12:23 am

TXPQ29 KNES 220322
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 22/0301Z

C. 10.8N

D. 149.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...INITIAL POSITION OF HOOKING BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH DT=1.0
BASED ON JUST OVER 2/10 BANDING. MET AND PAT ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:09 am

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 220751
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
551 PM CHST MON SEP 22 2014

PMZ172-222200-
CHUUK-
551 PM CHST MON SEP 22 2014

...MONSOON CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTH OF CHUUK...

A MONSOON CIRCULATION NORTH OF CHUUK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. THE CIRCULATION...CENTERED NEAR 11N151E...IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT CURVES EASTWARD FROM NEAR GUAM TO
NORTH OF POHNPEI.

SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CHUUK
STATE TONIGHT WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER AT WENO ON TUESDAY...BUT COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE
OUTER ISLANDS OF CHUUK STATE WEST OF WENO THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

HEAVIEST WEATHER HAS SHIFTED JUST WEST AND NORTH OF WENO THIS
AFTERNOON. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A LINE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PASSING
OVER WENO FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH MUCH DRIER WEATHER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS. WENO COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN
THIS EVENING BEFORE SHOWERS TAPER OVERNIGHT.

COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WINDS DECREASE TUESDAY.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ISSUED FOR CHUUK UNDER THIS BULLETIN
HEADER. REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THE
MARIANA ISLANDS UNDER WMO HEADER WWMY80 PGUM FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE STAY INFORMED ABOUT CURRENT
WEATHER SITUATIONS BECAUSE THE WEATHER CAN BE VERY CHANGEABLE THIS
TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING MARINE ACTIVITIES. LISTEN FOR
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

$$

AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:15 am

Up to MEDIUM!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N
151.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 150.5E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION
BROADLY WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY-ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 220331Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING TOWARDS THE
ILL-DEFINED LLCC. AN OLDER 220017Z ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY SHOWED 20 TO
30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND BARBS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTION AND SLOW
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:25 am

Image
Image

Big shift south...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:39 am

NWS GUAM:

Plenty of rain coming towards the Marianas...

RADAR SHOWS MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE COVERAGE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SATELLITE SHOWS AREAS
OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR 12N AND MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF GUAM NEAR 148E...WHICH ARE EDGING OUR WAY. ASCAT ANALYSIS
SHOWS A CIRCULATION NEAR 11N151E THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST
98W. VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE NORTH 5 TO 10 KT BUT SURFACE WINDS
RANGE FROM NE TO NW IN THE LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. BUOYS SHOW COMBINED
SEAS NEAR 4 FEET WITH DIRECTIONAL COMPONENTS FROM WEST...AND
NORTHEAST.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:50 am

06Z much further north and east from EURO...Bottoming out at 968 mb and a close hit for Tokyo...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 8:46 am

98W INVEST 140922 1200 11.5N 148.5E WPAC 20 1006
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:05 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:19 am

Getting heavy downpours over guam...storms that impacts Asia as a strong typhoon first have to go through the Marianas...
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#19 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:20 am

just had a look at it, this is a clear TD. Officially, it is a TD as well
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:27 am

Up to 1.5 and i expect JTWC to issuea TCFA soon...

TXPQ29 KNES 221509
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 22/1432Z

C. 11.7N

D. 148.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .2+ WH BAND. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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