WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:52 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#22 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:11 am

JMA (10 min) has this as a TD on their map with little information...
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#23 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 22, 2014 1:16 pm

is a TD. Title should be updated
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#24 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:02 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 221900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 148.1E TO 17.5N 147.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 148.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N
148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 148.1E, APPROXIMATELY 200NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THE AREA OF CONVECTION, WHILE EXTREMELY BROAD,
HAS STARTED TO SHOW SOME CONSOLIDATION. A 221632Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS VERY FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE, WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS WITH THE MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATING OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231900Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#25 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:04 pm

000
WWMY80 PGUM 222303
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
903 AM CHST TUE SEP 23 2014

GUZ001>004-240500-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
903 AM CHST TUE SEP 23 2014

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

A BROAD CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 12N148E...WHICH IS ABOUT 250
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION COVER A LARGE AREA WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF THE MARIANA
ISLANDS.

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE MONSOON TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. AS A
RESULT...RAIN BANDS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR GUAM AS WELL AS THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
VARY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

THIS REMAINS A STEADILY EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY...SO PLEASE STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY
FURTHER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

MCELROY
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#26 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:06 pm

Not much happening now, earlier we had some strong rains and loud thunder but it's just patches of sky with the sun peeking through... :D
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#27 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:07 pm

TXPQ29 KNES 222120
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 22/2032Z

C. 12.6N

D. 147.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=1.5. MET IS 1.0 WHILE THE PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY


TPPN10 PGTW 222111

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (SE OF GUAM)

B. 22/2032Z

C. 12.7N

D. 148.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE MET IS
UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#28 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 2:18 am

Dvorak numbers have come down as circulation is elongated and not well defined...

TPPN10 PGTW 230614

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (NE OF GUAM)

B. 23/0532Z

C. XX.X

D. XXX.X

E. N/A/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LONG

TXPQ29 KNES 230325
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 23/0232Z

C. 13.4N

D. 146.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM NOT AS WELL DEFINED AND LOOKING MORE
ELONGATED. EXTRAPOLATING PREVIOUS CENTER DT=1.0 BASED ON 2/10 BANDING
OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. MET AND PAT ALSO 1.0. WATCHING AREA FURTHER NE
FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#29 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 2:24 am

NWS GUAM:

LATEST ASCAT/WINDSAT IMAGERY...AS WELL AS ANIMATED RADAR AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST JTWC HIGH INVEST AREA 98W IS
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN NEAR 15N147E. 98W IS AN
ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS LOW. 98W IS A LARGE SYSTEM. A TUTT CELL
IS CENTERED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF 98W NEAR 20N151E. THESE TWO
FACTORS BOTH SUGGEST 98W WILL NOT RAPIDLY DEVELOP.


ASCAT/WINDSAT STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED WINDS ON THE
PERIPHERY OF 98W WERE QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THEY WERE IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS. HAVE ACCORDINGLY UPDATED WIND GRIDS FOR DAYS 1
THROUGH 4 TO MORE CLOSELY ALIGN WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL.
LARGE SIZE AND PROXIMITY OF 98W BOTH ARGUE FOR ADDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CONSIDERED ADDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...BUT HELD OFF
ON THIS BASED ON THE LATEST GFS40 RUN...WHICH BEST INITIALIZES THE
DRY AIR AND LACK OF CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF 98W. 98W
SHOULD DEPART THE FORECAST ZONES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL LEAVE THE MONSOON TROUGH BEHIND.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#30 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 2:44 am

Remains HIGH

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 148.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. MSI ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
TROUGHING AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SOUTH OF A TUTT CELL
POSITIONED NEAR 20N 150E. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM AND SAIPAN SHOW SUSTAINED
WESTERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 10 KNOTS WITH SLP
NEAR 1004 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20
KNOTS) AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#31 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 4:00 am

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmsSwRoZG_8#t=54[/youtube]

Tropical Disturbance Southeast of Guam is Huge But NWS Doesn't Expect it to Become a Tropical Storm Anytime Soon


http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/latest-news/48122-tropical-disturbance-southeast-of-guam-is-huge-but-nws-doesn-t-expect-it-to-become-a-tropical-storm-anytime-soon
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#32 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 4:32 am

Image

Complete Mess...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#33 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 6:06 am

000
WWMY80 PGUM 230955
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
755 PM CHST TUE SEP 23 2014

GUZ001>004-240500-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
755 PM CHST TUE SEP 23 2014

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED EAST OF THE MARIANAS...

A BROAD CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 15N148E...WHICH IS ABOUT 120
MILES EAST OF SAIPAN. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION
COVER A LARGE AREA WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE MONSOON
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.
AS A RESULT...RAIN BANDS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR GUAM AS WELL AS THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
VARY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

THIS REMAINS A STEADILY EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY...SO PLEASE STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY
FURTHER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

STANKO
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#34 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 6:48 am

Loving this cold weather mixed with downpours.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - (JMA - TROPICAL DEPRESSION)

#35 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:05 am

Image

98W INVEST 140923 1200 17.2N 147.4E WPAC 20 1003

Cloudless center.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - (JMA - TROPICAL DEPRESSION)

#36 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:43 am

TXPQ29 KNES 230918
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 23/0832Z

C. 13.6N

D. 145.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM STILL NOT WELL DEFINED AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
24 HOURS BUT WEAKER THAN 12 HOURS AGO. DT=1.0 BASED ON 2/10 BURSTING
NEW CONVECTION. MET AND PAT ALSO 1.0. WATCHING AREA NE ALONG TROF AROUND
19.7N 149.6 FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBLE RELOCATION OF 98W. FT
IS BASED ON DT.


I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - (JMA - TROPICAL DEPRESSION)

#37 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:45 am

Deep convection increasing northeast of center...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - (JMA - TROPICAL DEPRESSION)

#38 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:26 am

ASCAT indicates the LLC is much farther north, near 16.3N and 149E. I don't see any LLC where JMA has the center.

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_META/zooms/WMBas256.png
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - (JMA - TROPICAL DEPRESSION)

#39 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 2:38 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 231900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221900Z SEP 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 221900)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 150.6E TO 23.5N 145.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.7N 149.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4N
148.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 149.4E, APPROXIMATELY 380NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. THE AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN
EXTREMELY BROAD, ALMOST 600NM IN LENGTH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AND MAINTAINS THE APPEARANCE OF A LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION. FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE TROUGHING AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SOUTH OF A TUTT
CELL. THE WEAKENING TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDES SOME
MODERATE OUTFLOW AND THERE IS MODERATE WINDSHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
FOR AN OVERALL MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
ALIGNMENT WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND SLOWING CONSOLIDATING FROM A MONSOON DEPRESSION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS WITH
THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO CONTINUED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241900Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - (JMA - TROPICAL DEPRESSION)

#40 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 2:39 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 231815

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (NE OF GUAM)

B. 23/1732Z

C. 18.2N

D. 149.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN BROADLY WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT.
DBO DT. LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON POSITION DUE TO VERY BROAD
TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

TXPQ29 KNES 231511
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 23/1432Z

C. 17.3N

D. 148.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/S1.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. RELOCATED BASED ON SHORTWAVE
IMAGERY. LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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