WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - (JMA - TROPICAL DEPRESSION)

#41 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:01 pm

NWS GUAM:

TUESDAY NIGHTS SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED THE CIRCULATION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL IN THAT THEY AGREE
WITH THIS LOCATION. MODELS MOVE THE CIRCULATION NORTHWARD THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. YESTERDAY ECMWF HAD SHOWN THE CIRCULATION CROSSING
ACROSS THE MARIANAS NEAR PAGAN. NOW THIS MODEL AGREES WITH THE
GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE KEEPING THE TRACK OF THE CIRCULATION EAST OF
THE ALL THE MARIANA ISLANDS. THE MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION NEAR
20N BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIRCULATION WILL PICK-UP STEAM DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT IS
NORTH OF 20N. THE CIRCULATION WILL PROMOTE A SURGE IN THE
MONSOON. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A LONG PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE MARIANAS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - (JMA - TROPICAL DEPRESSION)

#42 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 24, 2014 5:57 am

Remains HIGH

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4N
148.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 149.7E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 240311Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE BUT WEAK BANDING
ELSEWHERE. AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT SURFACE FLOW
AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS) AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SMALL TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

Dvorak now up to 1.5!

TXPQ29 KNES 240916
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 24/0832Z

C. 20.0N

D. 150.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=1.5. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 1.5. FT
IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY

TPPN10 PGTW 240908

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (NE OF GUAM)

B. 24/0832Z

C. 19.7N

D. 149.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
WAS 2.0; MET WAS N/A. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/0335Z 19.7N 149.7E ATMS


LONG
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - (JMA - TROPICAL DEPRESSION)

#43 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:13 am

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - (JMA - TROPICAL DEPRESSION)

#44 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 24, 2014 7:35 am

It looks like a TS on the latest satellite imagery.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W - (JMA - TROPICAL DEPRESSION)

#45 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 24, 2014 8:28 am

17W SEVENTEEN 140924 0600 18.8N 149.6E WPAC 25 1004

17W is here!
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI

#46 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 24, 2014 9:31 am

Image

Forecasting a peak of 80 knots!


WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231851Z SEP 14//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 149.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 149.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.7N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.5N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.4N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.6N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 24.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 28.6N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 33.5N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 149.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z
AND 251500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCCEN 231851Z SEP 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 231900).//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI

#47 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 24, 2014 9:31 am

Image
TS 1417 (KAMMURI)
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 24 September 2014

<Analyses at 24/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°20'(20.3°)
E149°55'(149.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE390km(210NM)
SW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°10'(22.2°)
E148°10'(148.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°05'(24.1°)
E146°00'(146.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°20'(26.3°)
E143°20'(143.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI

#48 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 24, 2014 10:18 am

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (KAMMURI)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320
NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP CONVECTION. A
241135Z METOP-B 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS EXPOSED LLCC AND
BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND RECENT
ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. TD 17W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK EXTENSION OF
THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 17W IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
WEAK EXTENSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR, WHICH IS REINFORCED BY A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN
THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 36 AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 48, TD 17W SHOULD ACCELERATE AS
IT TURNS MORE POLEWARD TOWARD A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE STR PRODUCED
BY AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT INTO TWO CLUSTERS WITH JGSM, JENS, GFDN AND HWRF INDICATING A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE GFS, AEMN, COTC, NVGM AND ECMF DEPICT
A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THE MODEL SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS ABOUT 320 NM,
INDICATIVE OF THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
SCENARIO.
THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO, WHICH
MAKES MORE SENSE BASED ON MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF JAPAN. TD 17W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
80 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 17W SHOULD RE-CURVE POLEWARD OF THE
STR AXIS INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AND WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND POSITIONING UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI

#49 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 24, 2014 10:25 am

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 241446
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAMMURI (17W) ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP172014
200 AM CHST THU SEP 25 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAMMURI FORMS WELL NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.3N 149.3E

ABOUT 235 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 370 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 385 MILES NORTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 450 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 505 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW...345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
KAMMURI WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 149.3 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAMMURI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT
5 MPH. KAMMURI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAMMURI IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY FOR KAMMURI WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

SIMPSON
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 24, 2014 10:39 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 SEP 2014 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 19:17:00 N Lon : 149:19:41 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 / 999.8mb/ 31.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.2 3.1

Center Temp : -73.2C Cloud Region Temp : -60.1C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.1 degrees
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:50 pm

17W KAMMURI 140925 0000 20.2N 148.4E WPAC 35 996

15th tropical storm of the season!
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 24, 2014 7:12 pm

2014SEP24 231400 2.6 996.9 37.0 2.6 2.7 2.9 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -19.72 -55.95 CRVBND N/A N/A 20.47 -148.47 FCST MTSAT2 24.3
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 24, 2014 7:59 pm

Image
Image

Large and impressive circulation
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:09 am

Relocated 90 nm southwest...

WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (KAMMURI)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 498 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 242203Z SSMIS
PASS AND A PARTIAL 250005Z ASCAT PASS. THE BEST TRACK POSITION HAS
BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE BASED ON THE CLARIFYING MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND PERIPHERAL WINDS EVIDENT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. TD 17W IS TRACKING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
DEVOID OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT INDUCED BY
A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW ARE FUELING SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS IN THE TAU 72 TO TAU 96 PERIOD HAVE
DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING DUE TO A SLOWER ANTICIPATED
RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AS A RESULT,
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL AFTER TAU
72. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU
72. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AMONG CONSENSUS MODELS. A
WESTWARD GROUPING CONSISTING OF THE JAPANESE GLOBAL MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE, NAVGEM, GFDN, AND ECMWF DEPICTS A MORE CONTINUOUS STEERING
RIDGE AND, CONSEQUENTLY, A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST FOLLOWED BY A
SLOWER AND SHARPER RECURVATURE. THE POLEWARD GROUPING CONSISTING OF
HWRF, UKMET, GFS, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
EARLY AND THE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
FOLLOWED BY A BROADER RECURVATURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
WESTWARD GROUPING THROUGH TAU 72 BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPING
STEERING RIDGE AND ITS ORIENTATION. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPRESSES CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THEREAFTER, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FILLS AND UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED AROUND THE RIDGE PERIPHERY, STEADIER
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE PEAK INTENSITY TO AROUND 75 KNOTS AT TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
ACCELERATES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE AND HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE
DUE TO SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DISCUSSED EARLIER. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SLOW AND SHARPER
RECURVATURE DEPICTED IN THE WESTWARD MODEL GROUPING, AND LIES WEST
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:55 am

WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (KAMMURI)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436
NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AND 250622Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH BROKEN CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
ADDITIONALLY, A POINT-SOURCE IS LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING
THE DEEP CONVECTION. TD 17W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 17W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 17W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANISTION (ETT) AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 96. TD 17W WILL BECOME A
STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING VWS
AND COOLING SSTS WILL CAUSE A STEADY DECAY. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE; HOWEVER, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK SPEEDS IN THE SHORT-TERM AND LARGE SPREAD
AMONG MODEL TRACKERS AT THE TURN, THE CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:32 am

35 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (KAMMURI) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE ROUND SIGNATURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 250917Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND SSMIS
IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO
35 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS THE ORGANIZING
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS AS EVIDENT
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 17W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED THROUGH TAU 48
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND OVERALL STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE.
B. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR TS 17W
THROUGH TAU 72. TS KAMMURI IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD AFTER TAU 48
AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS TO RE-CURVE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TS 17W TO INTENSIFY LEADING TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 17W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 96. THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A
STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING VWS
AND COOLING SSTS WILL CAUSE A STEADY DECAY. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS; HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TRACK SPEEDS IN THE SHORT-TERM AND LARGE SPREAD AMONG MODEL
TRACKERS AT THE TURN, THE CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:37 am

Image

Image

Large wind field...
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:42 am

Looks like one of those rapidly intensifying large cat 5 typhoon in the making...



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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:09 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:37 pm

17W KAMMURI 140926 0000 21.7N 146.3E WPAC 45 989

WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (KAMMURI) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY LARGE CYCLONE, SPANNING
OVER 700 NM, WITH MONSOON DEPRESSION CHARACTERISTICS - WEAK
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
IN THE OUTER PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP
AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RAGGED WARM SPOT ON A 252130Z 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 17W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR TS 17W
THROUGH TAU 48. TS KAMMURI IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD AFTER TAU 36
AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS TO RE-CURVE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TS 17W TO INTENSIFY LEADING TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL
COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 17W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
(ETT) AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
CYCLONE WILL BECOME A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 96.
ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL CAUSE A STEADY
DECAY. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS;
HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK SPEEDS IN THE SHORT-TERM AND
LARGE SPREAD AMONG MODEL TRACKERS AT THE TURN, THE CONFIDENCE IN JTWC
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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