WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:38 pm

Typhoon?

TXPQ29 KNES 260323
TCSWNP

A. 17W (KAMMURI)

B. 26/0232Z

C. 22.0N

D. 146.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...1.3 VISIBLE BANDING YIELDS A DT=4.0. MET IS 3.0 WHILE THE
PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 12:08 am

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 260316
TCPPQ1

TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI (17W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP172014
200 PM CHST FRI SEP 26 2014

...KAMMURI STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.1N 146.0E

ABOUT 230 MILES NORTH OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 480 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 490 MILES NORTH OF TINIAN
ABOUT 560 MILES NORTH OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 605 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW...335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.0 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8
MPH. KAMMURI IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE AND SPEED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
KAMMURI IS STILL A LARGE SYSTEM. KAMMURI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

MCELROY
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 12:10 am

NWS GUAM:

TROPICAL STORM KAMMURI BEGAN AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION. IT
THEREFORE STILL HAS A LARGE LIGHT WIND CENTER AND CORRESPONDINGLY
LARGE WIND RADII. CONTACTED THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
ABOUT THAT...THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AGREED SO THE WIND RADII
WERE EXPANDED. AS KAMMURI STRENGTHENS...THE WIND RADII WILL
PROBABLY NOT CHANGE MUCH. IT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE LIKE THE
CLASSIC TROPICAL CYCLONE. LATEST WARNING FROM JTWC HANDLES THIS
WELL.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:48 am

17W KAMMURI 140926 0600 22.2N 146.0E WPAC 45 988

not much change...
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 4:59 am

Large size and center void of Deep convection continues to limit faster intensification...

WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (KAMMURI) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 260451Z SSMI DEPICT A ROUND SIGNATURE WITH SPIRAL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND SSMI IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
(05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY,
A POINT SOURCE IS LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 17W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR TS 17W
THROUGH TAU 48. TS KAMMURI IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD AFTER TAU 36
AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS TO RE-CURVE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TS 17W TO INTENSIFY LEADING TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL
COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 17W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
CYCLONE WILL BECOME A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 96. ALSO,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL CAUSE A STEADY DECAY. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS; HOWEVER, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK SPEEDS IN THE SHORT-TERM AND LARGE SPREAD
AMONG MODEL TRACKERS AT THE TURN, THE CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:02 am

Image
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#67 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:47 am

Why isn't this a typhoon? CI values are at 4.0.
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Re:

#68 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:58 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Why isn't this a typhoon? CI values are at 4.0.


Well SSD is the only one reporting 4.0...PGTW was just upped to 3.5 and AMSU saying 60 knots...

I think if this can get a solid 4.0 on PG then we might have a typhoon...

Although I agree, this could very well be a typhoon, at least a Category 2...
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#69 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:02 am

17W KAMMURI 140926 1200 23.1N 145.5E WPAC 55 982

Good call...

Up to 55 knots!
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#70 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 9:22 am

Image

The size of this classic monsoon cyclone is astonishing...

I'd estimate 400-500 miles of Gale force winds from NE to SW...
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 9:25 am

WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (KAMMURI) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 252 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A SERIES
OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING A 261143Z NOAA-19 IMAGE SHOW TIGHTLY-
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDS A ROUND SIGNATURE MICROWAVE
CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND
AFOREMENTIONED NOAA-19 IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON AN INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION AND OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
(05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS
EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 17W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS INCREASED IN THE NEAR-TERM DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR TS 17W
THROUGH TAU 48. TS KAMMURI IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD AFTER TAU 36
AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS TO RE-CURVE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TS 17W TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL COMMENCE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 17W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
CYCLONE WILL BECOME A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL CAUSE A
STEADY DECAY. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT;
HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK SPEEDS IN THE SHORT-TERM
AND LARGE SPREAD AMONG MODEL TRACKERS AT THE TURN, THE CONFIDENCE IN
JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#72 Postby 404UserNotFound » Fri Sep 26, 2014 9:25 am

Reminds me of Lowell.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#73 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:19 am

JTWC - 55 knots
JMA - 40 knots
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#74 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:12 am

A recent ASCAT pass indicates 50-55 kts. JMA may have issued their latest advisory prior to the ASCAT pass. Even 10-min winds are likely a good bit stronger than their 45 kts.

Image
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#75 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 26, 2014 5:36 pm

STS 1417 (KAMMURI)
Issued at 21:50 UTC, 26 September 2014

<Analyses at 26/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N23°50'(23.8°)
E144°30'(144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E500km(270NM)
W390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 27/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°35'(25.6°)
E143°25'(143.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 27/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°10'(27.2°)
E142°40'(142.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°35'(29.6°)
E142°35'(142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 29/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N32°50'(32.8°)
E144°40'(144.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 9:32 pm

Remains 55 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (KAMMURI) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SEMI-
EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 262059Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOW
FRAGMENTED BANDING WARPING INTO A VERY LARGE CENTROID FEATURE,
RESEMBLING A LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION. ADDITIONALLY, THE DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CENTER AND MULTIPLE VORTICES VISIBLE
WITHIN THE CENTROID. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT)
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. TS 17W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR TS 17W
THROUGH TAU 48. TS KAMMURI IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AFTER
TAU 12 AS IT CONTINUES TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS TO RE-CURVE
TO THE NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. A MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALLOWING TS 17W SOME CONSOLIDATION, IF ANY, SLIGHTLY INTENSIFYING BY
TAU 24. EXPECT KAMMURI TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY
TAU 48, AS IT IS FORECASTED TO BE ABOVE THE RIDGE ACCESS AND BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH THE COMPLETION OF ETT
BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT;
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN ITS INITIAL POSITION.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#77 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 29, 2014 2:08 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 33.5N 146.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.5N 146.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 36.1N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 38.9N 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 34.1N 147.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 17W CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES. A 282031Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
THE SYSTEM IS ENGULFED IN THE MIDLATTITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. WITH INCREASING
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, EXPECT
KUMMARI TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
AS IT TAKES ON THE FULL CHARACTERISTICS OF A COLD-CORE LOW. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 18 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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