* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992014 09/22/14 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 41 52 64 73 79 84 87 91 93
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 41 52 64 73 79 84 87 91 93
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 47 55 62 69 74 77
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 20 22 20 20 17 13 11 10 11 7 6 8 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 -1 -4 -2 -5 -5
SHEAR DIR 30 38 41 45 54 36 37 35 65 43 343 310 275
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 156 156 157 156 154 153 149 146 143 142 145
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -51.9 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 8
700-500 MB RH 78 76 77 76 77 75 78 79 80 77 76 71 67
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 8 9 12 13 14 16 18 20 22
850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 23 26 16 9 7 18 24 34 37 37 36
200 MB DIV 51 51 66 53 50 60 48 56 56 33 14 38 8
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 0
LAND (KM) 439 421 403 399 403 430 465 469 494 506 582 589 545
LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.4 14.1 15.0 16.0 16.8 17.7 18.4
LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.0 98.5 99.1 99.6 100.9 102.6 104.5 106.5 108.2 109.8 111.1 112.1
STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 6 6 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 16 17 17 18 22 34 31 40 41 17 11 15 17
EPAC: RACHEL - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Yellow Evan
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supercane4867
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-
Tropical Cyclone Polo, located a few hundred miles west of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure area
located about 300 hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico,
is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or two while the low moves west-
northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Kimberlain
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-
Tropical Cyclone Polo, located a few hundred miles west of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure area
located about 300 hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico,
is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or two while the low moves west-
northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Yellow Evan
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- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
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- Contact:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992014 09/22/14 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 43 53 65 73 79 81 85 88 92
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 43 53 65 73 79 81 85 88 92
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 52 61 69 75 79 82
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 20 21 22 18 17 16 13 14 15 11 10 6 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 -2 -2 -4 -5 -5 -6 -4
SHEAR DIR 40 44 50 63 58 52 48 62 58 56 20 338 250
SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.8 28.3 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 156 155 153 152 150 148 140 141 146 144
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7
700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 80 77 78 77 78 75 73 69 66 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 17 19 22
850 MB ENV VOR 15 17 23 12 2 3 9 14 34 40 40 46 43
200 MB DIV 51 68 62 49 39 67 49 72 17 25 -2 23 18
700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 0
LAND (KM) 423 418 427 454 482 547 589 614 651 713 754 683 600
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 98.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 8 7 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 16 17 24 31 33 31 47 50 23 15 15 12 8
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992014 09/22/14 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 43 53 65 73 79 81 85 88 92
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 43 53 65 73 79 81 85 88 92
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 52 61 69 75 79 82
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 20 21 22 18 17 16 13 14 15 11 10 6 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 -2 -2 -4 -5 -5 -6 -4
SHEAR DIR 40 44 50 63 58 52 48 62 58 56 20 338 250
SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.8 28.3 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 156 155 153 152 150 148 140 141 146 144
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7
700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 80 77 78 77 78 75 73 69 66 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 17 19 22
850 MB ENV VOR 15 17 23 12 2 3 9 14 34 40 40 46 43
200 MB DIV 51 68 62 49 39 67 49 72 17 25 -2 23 18
700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 0
LAND (KM) 423 418 427 454 482 547 589 614 651 713 754 683 600
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 98.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 8 7 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 16 17 24 31 33 31 47 50 23 15 15 12 8
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 250 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, have
changed little in organization during the past few hours.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the low moves westward or west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 250 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, have
changed little in organization during the past few hours.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the low moves westward or west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139060
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
00z Best Track:
EP, 99, 2014092300, , BEST, 0, 139N, 990W, 25, 1008, DB
EP, 99, 2014092300, , BEST, 0, 139N, 990W, 25, 1008, DB
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Where is everybody?
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992014 09/23/14 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 60 66 67 68 68 71 73
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 60 66 67 68 68 71 73
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 39 43 47 52 56 62 67
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 21 22 20 20 20 17 16 14 11 5 7 4 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -4 -1 -4 0 -5
SHEAR DIR 40 46 47 47 43 43 50 50 55 37 25 327 295
SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 159 157 155 151 149 145 144 142 142 147 144
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 77 79 80 77 78 78 76 80 75 74 69 66 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 11
850 MB ENV VOR 20 29 26 17 13 3 16 17 30 26 23 22 6
200 MB DIV 67 60 30 33 39 36 43 36 32 -8 5 -3 0
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -3 -4 0 0 -1 0 0
LAND (KM) 256 271 287 307 327 374 407 443 521 619 618 534 424
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 32 33 34 31 29 27 31 19 12 12 15 14 8
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992014 09/23/14 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 60 66 67 68 68 71 73
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 60 66 67 68 68 71 73
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 39 43 47 52 56 62 67
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 21 22 20 20 20 17 16 14 11 5 7 4 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -4 -1 -4 0 -5
SHEAR DIR 40 46 47 47 43 43 50 50 55 37 25 327 295
SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 159 157 155 151 149 145 144 142 142 147 144
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 77 79 80 77 78 78 76 80 75 74 69 66 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 11
850 MB ENV VOR 20 29 26 17 13 3 16 17 30 26 23 22 6
200 MB DIV 67 60 30 33 39 36 43 36 32 -8 5 -3 0
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -3 -4 0 0 -1 0 0
LAND (KM) 256 271 287 307 327 374 407 443 521 619 618 534 424
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 32 33 34 31 29 27 31 19 12 12 15 14 8
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supercane4867
- Category 5
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139060
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, have
changed little in organization over the last several hours.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the low moves westward or west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, have
changed little in organization over the last several hours.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the low moves westward or west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139060
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
12z Best Track:
EP, 99, 2014092312, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1014W, 25, 1008, LO
EP, 99, 2014092312, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1014W, 25, 1008, LO
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992014 09/23/14 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 54 58 58 60 61 62 62
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 54 58 58 60 61 62 62
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 35 38 40 44 48 53
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 23 20 23 24 23 20 19 15 9 7 4 2 1
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 0 0 -3 -3 -5 -1 -5
SHEAR DIR 48 47 46 48 49 48 48 56 54 25 73 33 194
SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.5
POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 155 153 152 150 147 144 142 145 145 140 136
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 80 81 77 78 79 76 78 75 73 68 64 59 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 7 8 8 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7
850 MB ENV VOR 22 22 11 15 9 10 17 25 36 27 21 6 0
200 MB DIV 63 36 21 46 46 39 41 13 9 -15 -2 0 4
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -4 0 0 0 -1 1 0
LAND (KM) 327 347 368 395 414 488 532 569 632 593 588 568 536
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 100.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 4
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
Models less bullish likely due to lack of divergence.
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992014 09/23/14 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 54 58 58 60 61 62 62
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 54 58 58 60 61 62 62
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 35 38 40 44 48 53
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 23 20 23 24 23 20 19 15 9 7 4 2 1
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 0 0 -3 -3 -5 -1 -5
SHEAR DIR 48 47 46 48 49 48 48 56 54 25 73 33 194
SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.5
POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 155 153 152 150 147 144 142 145 145 140 136
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 80 81 77 78 79 76 78 75 73 68 64 59 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 7 8 8 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7
850 MB ENV VOR 22 22 11 15 9 10 17 25 36 27 21 6 0
200 MB DIV 63 36 21 46 46 39 41 13 9 -15 -2 0 4
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -4 0 0 0 -1 1 0
LAND (KM) 327 347 368 395 414 488 532 569 632 593 588 568 536
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 100.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 4
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
Models less bullish likely due to lack of divergence.
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Yellow Evan
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- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
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Here's the 12z output:
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 44 51 55 57 59 59 62 63
V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 44 51 55 57 59 59 62 63
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 35 38 41 45 49 53
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 21 19 19 17 11 9 5 5 3 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 0 -2 -1 -2 -4 0 -3 -4
SHEAR DIR 41 43 46 49 51 46 61 50 35 14 323 315 311
SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 153 153 151 148 146 143 145 145 143 138 134
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 6
700-500 MB RH 80 77 78 79 77 75 77 73 71 65 61 54 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 10
850 MB ENV VOR 21 14 16 7 7 23 20 31 35 27 15 7 5
200 MB DIV 34 21 46 42 20 37 21 20 -14 -4 -9 -8 -2
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 0 1
LAND (KM) 351 376 405 430 463 524 537 608 596 555 516 525 527
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 101.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 8 5 4 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 29 27 26 30 41 40 19 14 14 11 8 5 2
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 44 51 55 57 59 59 62 63
V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 44 51 55 57 59 59 62 63
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 35 38 41 45 49 53
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 21 19 19 17 11 9 5 5 3 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 0 -2 -1 -2 -4 0 -3 -4
SHEAR DIR 41 43 46 49 51 46 61 50 35 14 323 315 311
SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 153 153 151 148 146 143 145 145 143 138 134
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 6
700-500 MB RH 80 77 78 79 77 75 77 73 71 65 61 54 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 10
850 MB ENV VOR 21 14 16 7 7 23 20 31 35 27 15 7 5
200 MB DIV 34 21 46 42 20 37 21 20 -14 -4 -9 -8 -2
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 0 1
LAND (KM) 351 376 405 430 463 524 537 608 596 555 516 525 527
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 101.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 8 5 4 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 29 27 26 30 41 40 19 14 14 11 8 5 2
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139060
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico,
continue to show little change in organization. Upper-level winds
are expected to become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two
while the low moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico,
continue to show little change in organization. Upper-level winds
are expected to become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two
while the low moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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supercane4867
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
No TD yet on 18z Best Track:
EP, 99, 2014092318, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1015W, 30, 1007, LO
EP, 99, 2014092318, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1015W, 30, 1007, LO
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico,
have again changed little in organization during the past several
hours. Upper-level winds are currently not favorable for
significant development. However, they are expected to become more
favorable during the next couple of days, and any increase in
organization would lead to the formation of a tropical depression.
The low is expected to move westward or west-northwestward at about
10 mph well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico,
have again changed little in organization during the past several
hours. Upper-level winds are currently not favorable for
significant development. However, they are expected to become more
favorable during the next couple of days, and any increase in
organization would lead to the formation of a tropical depression.
The low is expected to move westward or west-northwestward at about
10 mph well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
00z Best Track:
EP, 99, 2014092400, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1026W, 30, 1007, LO
EP, 99, 2014092400, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1026W, 30, 1007, LO
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Yellow Evan
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I have to agree there's shear, but the SHIPS is too passive. Days 3 to 5, they should no shear, yet little change in intensity.
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992014 09/24/14 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 41 44 45 46 47 46 45
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 41 44 45 46 47 46 45
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 39 42 44 46 48
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 22 24 25 23 23 19 18 11 8 6 4 3 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 0 -5 -1 -4 -1 -5 -3 -3
SHEAR DIR 33 35 36 36 39 49 34 34 21 20 75 120 141
SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.6
POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 150 148 145 143 143 146 140 136 132 127
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5
700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 72 73 76 71 70 64 61 55 53 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 13 12 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 7
850 MB ENV VOR 16 11 2 7 19 19 30 28 22 11 -1 -7 -13
200 MB DIV 55 46 33 48 36 21 8 -15 0 -3 -17 -6 -10
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 1
LAND (KM) 345 384 410 434 465 499 588 617 564 568 591 582 609
LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 8 9 8 5 5 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 25 25 30 38 38 18 14 15 11 6 2 10 8
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992014 09/24/14 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 41 44 45 46 47 46 45
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 41 44 45 46 47 46 45
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 39 42 44 46 48
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 22 24 25 23 23 19 18 11 8 6 4 3 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 0 -5 -1 -4 -1 -5 -3 -3
SHEAR DIR 33 35 36 36 39 49 34 34 21 20 75 120 141
SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.6
POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 150 148 145 143 143 146 140 136 132 127
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5
700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 72 73 76 71 70 64 61 55 53 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 13 12 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 7
850 MB ENV VOR 16 11 2 7 19 19 30 28 22 11 -1 -7 -13
200 MB DIV 55 46 33 48 36 21 8 -15 0 -3 -17 -6 -10
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 1
LAND (KM) 345 384 410 434 465 499 588 617 564 568 591 582 609
LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 8 9 8 5 5 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 25 25 30 38 38 18 14 15 11 6 2 10 8
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TropicalAnalystwx13
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:I have to agree there's shear, but the SHIPS is too passive. Days 3 to 5, they should no shear, yet little change in intensity.
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992014 09/24/14 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 41 44 45 46 47 46 45
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 41 44 45 46 47 46 45
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 39 42 44 46 48
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 22 24 25 23 23 19 18 11 8 6 4 3 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 0 -5 -1 -4 -1 -5 -3 -3
SHEAR DIR 33 35 36 36 39 49 34 34 21 20 75 120 141
SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.6
POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 150 148 145 143 143 146 140 136 132 127
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5
700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 72 73 76 71 70 64 61 55 53 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 13 12 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 7
850 MB ENV VOR 16 11 2 7 19 19 30 28 22 11 -1 -7 -13
200 MB DIV 55 46 33 48 36 21 8 -15 0 -3 -17 -6 -10
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 1
LAND (KM) 345 384 410 434 465 499 588 617 564 568 591 582 609
LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 8 9 8 5 5 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 25 25 30 38 38 18 14 15 11 6 2 10 8
Look at mid-level relative humidity values, they dip below 50% by day 5.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:I have to agree there's shear, but the SHIPS is too passive. Days 3 to 5, they should no shear, yet little change in intensity.
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992014 09/24/14 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 41 44 45 46 47 46 45
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 41 44 45 46 47 46 45
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 39 42 44 46 48
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 22 24 25 23 23 19 18 11 8 6 4 3 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 0 -5 -1 -4 -1 -5 -3 -3
SHEAR DIR 33 35 36 36 39 49 34 34 21 20 75 120 141
SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.6
POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 150 148 145 143 143 146 140 136 132 127
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5
700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 72 73 76 71 70 64 61 55 53 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 13 12 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 7
850 MB ENV VOR 16 11 2 7 19 19 30 28 22 11 -1 -7 -13
200 MB DIV 55 46 33 48 36 21 8 -15 0 -3 -17 -6 -10
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 1
LAND (KM) 345 384 410 434 465 499 588 617 564 568 591 582 609
LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 8 9 8 5 5 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 25 25 30 38 38 18 14 15 11 6 2 10 8
Look at mid-level relative humidity values, they dip below 50% by day 5.
Not low enough to affect the outpout it seems more than 1 knot.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E
This invest has taken it's time to organize that I think is too late for it to be Major Hurricane Rachel.
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