EPAC: RACHEL - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#41 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:59 pm

The shear probably isn't decreasing as much as expected. You can clearly see strong upper level winds are still blowing on top of the thunderstorms

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#42 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:This invest has taken it's time to organize that I think is too late for it to be Major Hurricane Rachel.


SHIPS output still has it over warm SST's by day 5.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#43 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:39 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, have
become a little better organized overnight. Although upper-level
winds are not conducive for significant development, only a slight
increase in organization would lead to the formation of a
tropical depression. The low is expected to move westward or
west-northwestward at about 10 mph well offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#44 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 24, 2014 8:47 am

cycloneye wrote:This invest has taken it's time to organize that I think is too late for it to be Major Hurricane Rachel.


I most certainly agree. I don't think we'll see much, if anything, from this. Upper level winds are not conducive, and the invest doesn't seem to be showing much signs of improvement right now.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#45 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 24, 2014 9:46 am

They should at least upgrade it to a TD based on 2.0 dvorak...

We just had 17W over here and it's even lower than that at 1.5...
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#46 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 24, 2014 9:51 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 105.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2014

Convection associated with the area of low pressure located south of
Mexico has increased and persisted overnight. The convection is not
extremely well organized due to strong northeasterly shear, however
Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from both SAB and TAFB suggest that the
system has enough organization to be classified as a tropical
depression. The shear is causing the convection to be displaced to
the south and southwest of the low-level center. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with the latest
Dvorak classifications and earlier ASCAT data. Strong upper-level
winds over the cyclone are expected to continue during the next 24
hours or so. After that time, the depression is forecast to move
into an area of decreasing shear and some gradually strengthening is
predicted. Late in the period, the cyclone will move into a less
favorable thermodynamic environment and weakening should commence.
The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance.

The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. The depression should
move west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level ridge over
Mexico during the next several days. After 72 hours, the cyclone
will approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude
trough that will be moving into California. This should cause the
cyclone to slow down and turn northwestward by days 4 and 5. The
track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and the NHC
track is a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS model solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 15.0N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.7N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 16.7N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.7N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 18.6N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 21.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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#47 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Sep 24, 2014 11:37 am

" some gradually strengthening is predicted. Late in the period, the cyclone will move into a less favorable thermodynamic environment and weakening should commence."

So, maybe something sort of, but not a whole lot.
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#48 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 24, 2014 3:37 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
200 PM PDT WED SEP 24 2014

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 106.8W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
200 PM PDT WED SEP 24 2014

Deep convection formed closer to the center of the depression late
this morning, but recent satellite imagery suggests that strong
upper-level winds are beginning to cause a separation between the
center and the convection once again. Dvorak intensity estimates
were unchanged at 1800 UTC and a recent ASCAT pass indicated
maximum winds of around 30 kt. Strong upper-level northeasterly
winds are expected to prevent significant strengthening during the
next 12 to 24 hours, however the depression could become a low-end
tropical storm during this time. The shear is forecast to decrease
late Thursday and Friday, which should allow for some modest
strengthening before the cyclone moves into less favorable
thermodynamic conditions late in the period. The updated NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is again
close to the SHIPS guidance.

The initial motion estimate is 280/12, a little more westward than
estimated earlier today. The model guidance indicates that the
cyclone should turn west-northwestward and continue on that general
heading during the next several days, to the south of a mid-level
ridge over northern Mexico. Later in the period, the cyclone
should turn northwestward as a weakness in the ridge develops along
115W. The GFS continues to show a slightly stronger cyclone
turning northward, while the ECMWF takes a weaker system westward.
The NHC track lies between these solutions and is close to the
multi-model consensus. The updated track is a little west of
the previous advisory, primarily due to the more southward and
westward initial position.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 15.1N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 15.7N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 16.7N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 18.5N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 19.7N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 20.5N 116.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 21.5N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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#49 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 24, 2014 7:35 pm

20140925 0000 15.0 107.0 T2.5/2.5 18E NONAME
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#50 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 24, 2014 8:10 pm

We will have TS Rachel at next advisory.

EP, 18, 2014092500, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1069W, 35, 1004, TS
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Re: EPAC: RACHEL - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 24, 2014 9:41 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
800 PM PDT WED SEP 24 2014

...RACHEL...THE 17TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR...DEVELOPS WELL
SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 107.4W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES




TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
800 PM PDT WED SEP 24 2014

Vigorous deep convection has expanded in association with the
tropical cyclone this evening, primarily in the southwestern
semicircle. The asymmetric distribution of thunderstorms around the
system is due to about 25 kt of northeasterly vertical shear being
caused by a strong upper-level anticyclone to its north. The
current intensity is based upon 35 kt estimates from both the
Satellite Analysis Branch and the Advanced Dvorak Technique, though
the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch suggests a slightly
stronger system. Thus the cyclone is now named Tropical Storm
Rachel. The system may gradually intensify during the next two to
three days as the shear diminishes some. However, Rachel should
also encounter cooler sea surface temperatures and drier low-level
air as it moves toward the west-northwest. The system is expected
to peak in intensity as a moderate tropical storm around day 2 or 3,
followed by a gradual weakening. The NHC official intensity
forecast is based upon the tightly clustered IVCN multi-model
ensemble and is about the same as the previous advisory.

The earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass suggested a radius of maximum
wind of around 40 nm, which helped to define the tropical-storm-
force wind radii now that the cyclone has strengthened. The global
and regional hurricane models suggest that Rachel will remain rather
small in size. A blend of these models with the climatology-
persistence technique is the basis for the NHC wind radii
predictions.

A 2333Z SSMIS microwave image assisted in locating the center of
Rachel, as the low-level swirl has remain tucked just under the
convective overcast. Rachel is moving toward the west at about
10 kt. The tropical storm should turn toward the west-northwest
during the next two days as it moves around the periphery of the
mid-level subtropical ridge. In about three days, a strong
short wave trough will be passing north of Rachel over California.
The new 18Z GFS and the hurricane models run from it respond by
turning Rachel northeastward toward Baja California, while the
older 12Z ECMWF and UK Met Office global models continue moving a
weaker Rachel west-northwestward. The NHC official track splits the
difference and is slightly eastward from that of the previous
advisory, but not as far eastward as the TVCE multi-model ensemble.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 15.3N 107.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 15.8N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 16.9N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 17.9N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 18.6N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 19.7N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 21.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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Re: EPAC: RACHEL - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:16 am

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
200 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014

Microwave data reveal that Rachel is still a sheared cyclone with
the center located to the northeast of the deep convection due to
strong upper-level northeasterly winds. The cloud pattern has
changed little, and Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB and ADT from
CIMMS support an initial intensity of 35 kt. There is an opportunity
for Rachel to strengthen a little during the next 2 to 3 days as the
shear decreases. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase
again, and the circulation will begin to move over cooler waters,
resulting in gradual weakening.

Microwave and conventional satellite fixes indicate that Rachel is
moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 11 kt. The ridge
over Mexico which is controlling the track of Rachel is forecast
to weaken as a strong mid-latitude trough approaches. This
steering pattern should favor a turn to the northwest and north
beyond 48 hours. In fact, track models are in better agreement and
now most of them favor a northward turn and a recurvature with a
decrease in forward speed by the end of the forecast period. By
then, Rachel is expected to be a weakening depression or a remnant
low. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one through 3
days. After that time, it was adjusted eastward a little bit to
follow the multi-model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 16.0N 108.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 16.8N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.8N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 18.7N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 19.5N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 21.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 23.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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#53 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:39 am

TXPZ26 KNES 251228
TCSENP

A. 18E (RACHEL)

B. 25/1200Z

C. 16.0N

D. 109.3W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 3.0 BASED ON LESS THAN .5 DEGREES OF SHEAR. MET IS
2.5 BASED ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO. PT IS 2.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LIDDICK
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#54 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:55 am

20140925 1200 16.0 109.3 T3.0/3.0 18E RACHEL
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#55 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:00 am

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 45 47 51 54 55 54 50 44 37 32
V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 45 47 51 54 55 54 50 44 37 32
V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 45 46 48 50 52 52 51 50 48 47
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 15 14 10 10 6 3 5 4 10 12 15 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -1 -4 0 0 1 -4 -2
SHEAR DIR 55 42 45 46 49 60 60 149 184 150 194 202 225
SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.2 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 25.8 25.5
POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 146 146 140 135 131 128 125 123 119 116
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 5 6 5
700-500 MB RH 72 68 66 68 67 61 58 51 45 37 31 25 22
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 12 9 6 3
850 MB ENV VOR 35 31 35 43 38 31 22 13 19 14 22 18 17
200 MB DIV -6 -13 15 21 9 18 4 -5 13 -8 -28 -25 -21
700-850 TADV -3 -2 -4 -4 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -5 -1
LAND (KM) 572 625 636 611 604 621 620 567 521 481 451 373 291
LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.3 21.8 22.2 23.0 23.9
LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.3 111.3 112.2 113.1 114.4 115.2 115.6 115.7 115.7 115.7 115.4 115.0
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 8 7 5 4 3 2 3 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 14 13 14 14 14 9 5 2 8 3 7 0 0

NHC has 40 knts in their ATCF. Likely due to low ADT values (still 2.5).
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Re: EPAC: RACHEL - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:52 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
800 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014

...RACHEL STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 109.6W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
800 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014

The northeasterly shear that has been affecting the cyclone
during the past day or so appears to be decreasing, with the center
of Rachel now located beneath the cold cloud tops. Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB support an initial wind speed of 45
kt for this advisory. The shear is expected to further decrease
over the next 24 to 36 hours and additional strengthening is likely
during this period. The new NHC intensity forecast is above the
previous forecast and close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance. After 48
hours, Rachel will be moving over slightly cooler water and into a
drier airmass, which should cause steady weakening late in the
forecast period.

A recent SSMIS overpass was very helpful in locating the center
this morning. The fixes indicate an initial motion of 295 degrees
at about 11 kt. Rachel should continue moving west-northwestward to
the south of a mid-level ridge over Mexico during the next 24 to 36
hours. After that time, a trough approaching the west coast of the
United States will create a break in the ridge which should cause
Rachel to turn northwestward. During the 3 to 5 day period, there
continues to be large differences in the model solutions. The GFS,
GFDL, and HWRF take the cyclone northward, then northeastward, while
the ECMWF and UKMET show a weaker cyclone becoming nearly stationary
well southwest of the Baja peninsula. The NHC track leans toward
the more northward solution, but it is not nearly as fast or as
far east as the GFS and GFDL models at days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 16.3N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 17.1N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.2N 112.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 19.0N 114.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 19.8N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 21.5N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 22.7N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 23.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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#57 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 25, 2014 10:39 am

Models don't seem to like this too much, but it is hard to bet against Rachel becoming a hurricane given the season...
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Re: EPAC: RACHEL - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 25, 2014 3:55 pm

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
200 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014

After strengthening earlier today, Rachel appears to have leveled
off in intensity this afternoon. The initial wind speed is held
at a possibly generous 45 kt based on the latest satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. The low-level center of the
storm is located near the northeastern edge of the main area of deep
convection due to about 15 kt of shear. This shear is expected to
lessen during the next couple of days, which should allow Rachel to
gain strength. By the end of the weekend and early next week, the
cyclone is expected to move over cooler water, and into an
atmosphere of southwesterly shear and drier air. These unfavorable
conditions should cause a weakening trend. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term,
but is otherwise unchanged and is near the SHIPS guidance.

Rachel is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt steered by
mid-level ridging to its north and northeast. A large trough
currently offshore of the west coast of the U.S. is expected to
move eastward causing the ridge to weaken and shift eastward as
well. This change in the synoptic pattern should cause Rachel to
gradually turn northward during the next few days. By the end of
the forecast period, the weakening system is expected to slow down
or become stationary when it becomes embedded in weak low-level
steering currents. The NHC track forecast is a little to the left
of the previous one and slower at the end of the period, following
the trend in the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 17.0N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 17.7N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 18.7N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 19.5N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 20.4N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 22.0N 116.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.8N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 23.1N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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#59 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:00 pm

Rachael reverting to its old ways.

BTW, where is everybody?
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cycloneye
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Re:

#60 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:08 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Rachael reverting to its old ways.

BTW, where is everybody?


There is no big interest in this storm as it was with Marie and Odile.
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