EPAC: RACHEL - Post-Tropical

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#81 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:48 pm

TXPZ26 KNES 270023
TCSENP

A. 18E (RACHEL)

B. 27/0000Z

C. 18.1N

D. 115.0W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...RACHEL HAS SHOWN REMARKABLE DEVELOPMENT PAST 6 HOURS AS
SHEAR HAS RELAXED. SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHEARED FOR PAST 2 DAYS BUT SHEAR HAS
RELAXED AND LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS REFORMED MID LEVEL CENTER. THIS IS WELL
DEPICTED IN AMSR2 89GHZ AND 37GHZ IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS NEARLY VERTICAL
STRUCTURE. AMSR2 AND TRMM ALSO DEPICT NACENT EYE FORMATION WHICH IS ALSO
REFLECTED IN WARM SPOT IN GOES IR. 10 TENTHS BANDING GIVES DT=3.5. MET=3.5
BASED ON 24 HOUR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

26/2002Z 18.0N 114.9W AMSR2


...RUMINSKI
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#82 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:49 pm

20140927 0000 18.1 115.0 T3.5/3.5 18E RACHEL

Rachael making progress.
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#83 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:53 pm

EP, 18, 2014092700, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1151W, 55, 994, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 60, 40, 60, 1007, 240, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RACHEL, D,
EP, 18, 2014092700, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1151W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 20, 1007, 240, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RACHEL, D,
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Re: EPAC: RACHEL - Tropical Storm

#84 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 26, 2014 9:49 pm

Now forecast to become a Hurricane.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...RACHEL INTENSIFYING WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 115.3W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY WITH A
SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SOME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AND THE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE. SLOW
WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA



TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014

Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery show a much improved
structure for Rachel this evening. A pronounced curved band has
developed and wrapped around the center of the cyclone, while a
mid-level eye is seen in 2002Z AMSR-E, 2130Z AMSU, and 0127Z SSMIS
microwave passes. Correspondingly, the Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB have jumped up to a 3.5. This supports a 55 kt
intensity, which may be conservative as the CIMSS AMSU method
suggests maximum sustained winds of about 75 kt. It appears likely
that Rachel is responding to a reduction in the vertical shear, as
it has now dropped below 10 kt. Rachel has about 24 to 36 hr of
conducive environmental conditions remaining before the atmosphere
that it moves into becomes quite dry and stable. In about three
days, the vertical shear increases which should hasten the demise of
this system. The NHC intensity prediction is based upon the IVCN
multi-model ensemble through 48 hr and upon the HWRF and GFDL
hurricane models after that time. The peak intensity indicated here
is above that from the previous advisory due to the jump in the
initial intensity.

The aforementioned AMSU pass also provided some guidance from the
CIRA size technique for the initial tropical-storm-force wind radii,
which have been expanded outward some as a result. The forecast
wind radii, however, are anticipated to not grow much, based upon a
blend of the dynamical and climatological models.

Rachel's center apparently reformed southwestward closer to the
deep convection earlier today, as suggested by a late arriving
WindSat microwave pass. While the uncertainty in the initial
position is low, the current motion is a bit ambiguous due to the
reformation. It is estimated that the cyclone's center is moving
toward the west-northwest at around 10 kt, primarily due to
steering imparted by a mid-level subtropical ridge to its
northeast. A vigorous shortwave trough near California is
anticipated to induce a break in the ridge and allow Rachel to turn
toward the north-northwest at a slower rate of forward speed by
Sunday. In about three days, a decaying Rachel will start
meandering in the weak low-level flow west of Baja California. The
NHC track forecast is based upon the TVCE multi-model ensemble,
which shows substantial divergence in solutions late in the
forecast period, and is slightly east of the track shown in the
previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 18.4N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 19.1N 116.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 20.0N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 20.9N 116.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 21.5N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 22.1N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 21.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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Re: EPAC: RACHEL - Tropical Storm

#85 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:03 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: RACHEL - Tropical Storm

#86 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 27, 2014 5:13 am

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

Rachel's convective structure has evolved since the last advisory.
The long curved band noted earlier has become broken and is
separated from a small, compact area of deep convection which has
developed over the low-level center. An eye-like feature has
also occasionally appeared in infrared satellite imagery. Maximum
winds are held at 55 kt based on a consensus of T3.5/55 kt Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB. Rachel is forecast to be in a
low-shear environment for the next 36 hours or so, and the
atmosphere should be sufficiently moist and unstable to support some
strengthening in the short term. After 48 hours, southwesterly
vertical shear of 15-20 kt is forecast to develop, and Rachel will
be moving into a much drier and stable environment. The intensity
models are in good agreement that Rachel should be at or just below
hurricane intensity in 24 hours, which is indicated in the official
forecast. Thereafter, the dynamical models show a faster rate of
weakening than the statistical models, and the NHC forecast closely
follows the multi-model consensus ICON.

Rachel has turned northwestward, or 315/7 kt, into a weakness in
the subtropical ridge caused by two deep-layer lows over California
and the Rio Grande Valley. As the low over California moves
eastward, steering currents are expected to collapse, and Rachel
should turn north-northwestward but slow down and become nearly
stationary in 2-3 days. Once vertical shear increases on day 3,
a less-vertically-deep Rachel is expected to begin drifting
southwestward in the prevailing low-level flow. The GFS, GFDL, and
GFDL ensemble mean have begun to pull back a bit on their previous
trend of showing Rachel turning northeastward toward the Baja
California peninsula, although there is still considerable spread
in the track guidance by days 4 and 5. The updated NHC track
forecast essentially maintains continuity with the previous forecast
and is not too far from the multi-model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 19.1N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 19.8N 116.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 20.7N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 21.5N 116.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 21.9N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 22.1N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 21.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: RACHEL - Tropical Storm

#87 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:34 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...RACHEL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 116.1W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES




TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

Rachel continues to exhibit an occasional eye-like feature in
infrared satellite imagery, and this was also seen in an AMSR2 pass
just after 0900 UTC. However, the overall convective pattern is not
terribly impressive, with only a small area of deep convection near
the center and little in the way of banding. The initial intensity
remains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB. With the inner core trying to organize, there is the potential
for Rachel to reach hurricane intensity during in the next 12 to 18
hours before the thermodynamic environment becomes more hostile.
After that time, Rachel will be moving over marginal SSTs and into
an increasingly dry and stable atmosphere, which should result in
steady weakening. The new NHC forecast shows Rachel peaking in 12
hours, and after that time is close to the IVCN intensity consensus
while the cyclone decays.

The initial motion estimate is 325/07. Rachel should continue
turning poleward while it moves into a weakness in the subtropical
ridge during the next 24 hours. After that time, the decaying
cyclone will be caught in a region of weak steering currents, and a
slow north-northwestward motion is shown at 36 to 48 hours. Later in
the period, the shallow cyclone should begin moving southwestward as
it comes under the influence of a low-level ridge over the
northeastern Pacific. The track model guidance still shows a fair
amount of spread, but the GFS and GFDL models have continued to
trend southward this cycle. As a result, the TVCE multi-model
consensus has shifted to the left, and the latest NHC track has been
adjusted in that direction at 36 to 48 hours. Otherwise, the new
NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous advisory when
accounting for the initial position and motion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 19.6N 116.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 20.3N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 21.2N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 21.7N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 21.9N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 21.7N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 21.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: RACHEL - Tropical Storm

#88 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 27, 2014 1:11 pm

Eye clearing out

Image

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL
Saturday 27sep14 Time: 1305 UTC
Latitude: 19.23 Longitude: -116.06
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 17 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 976 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 74 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 7mb +/- 8kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: EPAC: RACHEL - Tropical Storm

#89 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 27, 2014 1:37 pm

Saved loop of eye appearing.

Image
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Re: EPAC: RACHEL - Tropical Storm

#90 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 27, 2014 2:02 pm

TXPZ26 KNES 271828
TCSENP

A. 18E (RACHEL)

B. 27/1800Z

C. 20.0N

D. 116.3W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 4.5 IS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE SURROUNDED
BY LG EMBEDDED IN DG. NO PLUS EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE 4.0. FT IS
BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
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#91 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 27, 2014 2:09 pm

This looks alot like Delta and Epsilon.
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#92 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 27, 2014 2:10 pm

EP, 18, 2014092718, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1163W, 60, 992, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 70, 30, 40, 1009, 180, 15, 75, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RACHEL, D,
EP, 18, 2014092718, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1163W, 60, 992, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 20, 1009, 180, 15, 75, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RACHEL, D,
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#93 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 27, 2014 2:11 pm

20140927 1800 20.0 116.3 T4.0/4.0 18E RACHEL

Based on this, I'd go 65 knts.
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#94 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:00 pm

Rachel sure looks like a hurricane now but best track just shows 60kt.
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Re: EPAC: RACHEL - Hurricane

#95 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:33 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...RACHEL BECOMES THE TWELFTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 116.5W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014

An eye has become more persistent in geostationary imagery during
the past few hours, and cloud top temperatures have cooled in the
convective ring surrounding the eye. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB were both T4.0 at 1800 UTC, and the initial intensity is set to
65 kt, making Rachel the 12th hurricane of the eastern North Pacific
season. The cyclone does not have much time to strengthen further,
given that it will be moving over gradually cooler waters and into a
drier and more stable environment during the next day or so.
Weakening is forecast to begin by 24 hours, and continue through the
remainder of the period given the aforementioned unfavorable
conditions and a forecast increase in shear. The cyclone should
weaken to a remnant low in about 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one and is close to the IVCN intensity
consensus.

The initial motion is now toward the north-northwest or 335/07.
Rachel is forecast to gradually turn northward by 24 hours as it
moves into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Then, the decaying
cyclone will be caught in a region of weak steering currents, and
little net motion is expected on days 2 and 3. After that time, the
remnant low should move southwestward as it comes under the
influence of a low-level ridge over the northeastern Pacific. There
continues to be considerable spread in the track model guidance
beyond 24 to 36 hours, but the NHC forecast remains close to the
previous official forecast and is not too far from the TVCE
multi-model consensus.

The initial 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on an ASCAT
pass around 18Z.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 20.3N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 21.1N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 22.0N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 22.3N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 22.2N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 21.7N 117.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z 20.8N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z 19.8N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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Re: EPAC: RACHEL - Hurricane

#96 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:42 pm

Rachel marks the 11th consecutive named storm to reach hurricane status this year and the old record was 8
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Re: EPAC: RACHEL - Hurricane

#97 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:43 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Rachel marks the 11th consecutive named storm to reach hurricane status this year and the old record was 8


That is of course, assuming that Fernanda 11 was not a hurricane.
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#98 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:52 pm

Nice looking little hurricane. :)
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#99 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:51 pm

DT of 4.5 might be a case to go a bit higher, perhaps 70 kt.
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#100 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:25 pm

20140928 0000 20.4 116.5 T4.5/4.5 18E RACHEL
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