ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

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cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 24, 2014 7:43 pm

AL, 96, 2014092400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 445W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014092406, , BEST, 0, 136N, 445W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014092412, , BEST, 0, 138N, 445W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014092418, , BEST, 0, 141N, 445W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014092500, , BEST, 0, 142N, 445W, 20, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Image

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116782&p=2416199#p2416199
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 24, 2014 8:08 pm

So is the ULL to the NW of 96l forecast to weaken?
This setup has been out there for two days but I thought sure the ULL would get it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 24, 2014 10:32 pm

Late bloomer. Will 2014 get it?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:15 am

Sanibel wrote:Late bloomer. Will 2014 get it?


already has from the moment it was declared. Nothing but hostile conditions ahead.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:28 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated low pressure area located about 1100 miles east of
the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not conducive for
significant development and tropical cyclone formation is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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#6 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:37 am

Well that was a total waste of an Invest tag. :x
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:23 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Well that was a total waste of an Invest tag. :x


Explain to me, how do you waste an invest tag? It counts for nothing offically, and the NHC has to run tests sometimes. They have invested systems that have no chance of development, but do it for their own in-house purposes. So, How do waste something that has no value to anyone but us, and you don't even know the purpose of why they tagged it?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:10 am

Florida1118 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Well that was a total waste of an Invest tag. :x


Explain to me, how do you waste an invest tag? It counts for nothing offically, and the NHC has to run tests sometimes. They have invested systems that have no chance of development, but do it for their own in-house purposes. So, How do waste something that has no value to anyone but us, and you don't even know the purpose of why they tagged it?


Yeah, they just start over at 90L once they go past 99L so the invests can be infinite. More like a waste of a post than an invest.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:49 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated low pressure area located about 1100 miles east of
the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not conducive
for development and tropical cyclone formation is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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#10 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 25, 2014 1:11 pm

No Invest is a waste, since surprises do happen. But I do agree this one is highly unlikely to develop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:33 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated low pressure area located about 1100 miles east of
the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not conducive
for development and tropical cyclone formation is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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#12 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:33 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N61W TO 10N63W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS N OF 15N E OF 68W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
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#13 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:39 pm

It's just sitting there. It ain't movin'! :lol:
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Re:

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:47 pm

abajan wrote:It's just sitting there. It ain't movin'! :lol:


That is right. Here are all the best track positions until the last one at 9/26 00z. :)

AL, 96, 2014092400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 445W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014092406, , BEST, 0, 136N, 445W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014092412, , BEST, 0, 138N, 445W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014092418, , BEST, 0, 141N, 445W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014092500, , BEST, 0, 140N, 443W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 96, 2014092506, , BEST, 0, 140N, 441W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 96, 2014092512, , BEST, 0, 139N, 438W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 96, 2014092518, , BEST, 0, 135N, 432W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 60, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014092600, , BEST, 0, 132N, 433W, 25, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:32 pm

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_META/zooms/WMBas112.png

ASCAT shows a well defined circulation and a good amount of westerly winds on the southern side, I'm surprised the percentages aren't higher as this seems to almost be a depression at this point, given how the convection has been sustaining itself.
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#16 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 26, 2014 4:53 am

96 L recap... from SSD.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/0545 UTC 12.5N 43.1W T1.0/1.0 96L
25/2345 UTC 13.0N 43.1W T1.0/1.0 96L
25/1745 UTC 13.3N 43.3W T1.0/1.0 96L
25/1145 UTC 13.6N 43.5W T1.0/1.0 96L
25/0545 UTC 14.3N 44.3W T1.0/1.0 96L
24/2345 UTC 14.1N 44.5W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
24/1745 UTC 14.0N 44.7W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby wzrgirl1 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:31 am

Wondering if this makes it into the carribean. Could be a different ballgame then.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:48 am

Same ballgame, just a different ball...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 26, 2014 12:22 pm

This invest will be deactivated soon as NHC is not mentioning it anymore at the TWO's.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#20 Postby StarmanHDB » Fri Sep 26, 2014 12:47 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
Florida1118 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Well that was a total waste of an Invest tag. :x


Explain to me, how do you waste an invest tag? It counts for nothing offically, and the NHC has to run tests sometimes. They have invested systems that have no chance of development, but do it for their own in-house purposes. So, How do waste something that has no value to anyone but us, and you don't even know the purpose of why they tagged it?


Yeah, they just start over at 90L once they go past 99L so the invests can be infinite. More like a waste of a post than an invest.


At the risk of kicking the proverbial Dead Horse, why exactly was this invest a "waste"? Being that you're "The Storm Expert", please tell us why because evidently we all need a little bit of your "expertise" on this subject.

Thanks "Storm Expert"!
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