WPAC: PHANFONE - Post-Tropical

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euro6208
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WPAC: PHANFONE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:53 am

Image

Image

99W INVEST 140926 0600 5.0N 170.0E WPAC 15 NA

Could this be the monster typhoon GFS is developing?
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:53 am, edited 7 times in total.
Reason: To change title
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#2 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 26, 2014 4:09 am

euro6208 wrote:Image

Image

99W INVEST 140926 0600 5.0N 170.0E WPAC 15 NA

Could this be the monster typhoon GFS is developing?


it looks promising...
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#3 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 26, 2014 4:25 am

It's far east and looks fairly organized. It is currently over a favorable environment, and due to the said status of the system this may be our next monster and possibly the first since Genevieve.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 4:46 am

Image

54 hours...

Looks like it will miss the Marianas...Track is solidly to the northwest and intensifying...Waters in this area are the warmest and untouched...

We'll see...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#5 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 26, 2014 4:50 am

Current model runs are in tight agreement that this is going to be a "FISH"
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 5:01 am

Image

Down to 960...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 5:16 am

Image

933 mb!

mrbagyo wrote:Current model runs are in tight agreement that this is going to be a "FISH"


There are thousands of Islands that could get affected by this aka Micronesia which include the Marianas...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#8 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 26, 2014 5:25 am

euro6208 wrote:http://i.imgur.com/WU95g9f.png

933 mb!

mrbagyo wrote:Current model runs are in tight agreement that this is going to be a "FISH"


There are thousands of Islands that could get affected by this aka Micronesia which include the Marianas...


"FISH" in the sense that it will stay away from any major landmass. But yeah, it might affect the Marianas.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:09 am

Showing off some popcorn convection...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:40 am

Image

Interesting...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 9:26 am

LOW chance!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.6N 166.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 208 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 260957Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS
WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. A 260958Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS A POINT-SOURCE IS
LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND
SUSTAINING THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#12 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:08 am

It's consolidating fast.
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:13 am

TXPQ21 KNES 261537
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 26/1432Z

C. 5.7N

D. 165.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...POSITION BASED ON CSC. DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT 0.2
BANDING. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#14 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:22 am

Remember, JTWC only discusses development chances over the next 24 hours. A "Low" chance doesn't mean that they don't think it will develop, it only means it won't likely be classified as a TC today.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:29 am

12Z much further south with a 945 mb typhoon plowing through Pagan in the central NMA...

Has it bottoming out at 927 mb after it clears the islands and an incredibly strong typhoon east of Okinawa, 929 mb....

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#16 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:12 pm

Image

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N
166.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3N 166.3E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 261222Z TRMM
MICROWAVE PARTIAL IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. A 260958Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE
KWAJALEIN RADAR LOOP DOES NOT CURRENTLY DEPICT ANY TURNING. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS DIVERGENT EASTERLY AND SLIGHT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, PROVIDING OVERALL EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND SUSTAINING THE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

it's just been upgraded to medium but I can already smell a TCFA.
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#17 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 26, 2014 5:33 pm

That escalated quickly

WTPN21 PGTW 262230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.2N 166.5E TO 8.6N 160.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.6N 166.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N
166.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT
CENTRAL CONVECTION WHILE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERIES
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND FLARING IN NATURE WHILE SOME BROKEN
CONVECTIVE BANDING CAN BE OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. A
261923Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE AS CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. A 260958Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED AN ELONGATED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS BEING OFFSET BY WIDELY DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND
THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272230Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 9:26 pm

Image

TPPN11 PGTW 270014

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (SW OF KWAJALEIN)

B. 26/2332Z

C. 6.3N

D. 164.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE MET IS
UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 9:31 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:31 pm

Image
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