WPAC: PHANFONE - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Remains HIGH

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 166.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 163.4E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 270134Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER YET
AND SHOWS ILL-DEFINED, SHALLOW BANDING AND DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL
SHARP SURFACE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH AN ELONGATED, WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR 6.3N 157.7E. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL NEAR 20N 175E. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION TO THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 270658
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
458 PM CHST SAT SEP 27 2014

PMZ173-174-181-280600-
POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-
458 PM CHST SAT SEP 27 2014

...DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF KOSRAE...

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST NORTH OF
KOSRAE. THE DISTURBANCE IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING BETWEEN PINGELAP IN
POHNPEI STATE AND UJELANG IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE
REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

THE DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 7N163E WHICH IS ABOUT 120 MILES
NORTH OF KOSRAE AND 300 MILES EAST OF POHNPEI...AND IT IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ROUGHLY 10 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY A THREAT TO THOSE WHO ARE PLANNING OR
CONDUCTING INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL IN AREAS TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI. WINDS NEAR THIS DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS. COMBINED SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI TONIGHT
AND COULD BE HIGHER BY SUNDAY.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING
MARINE ACTIVITIES. THIS IS AN EVOLVING WEATHER SITUATION. LISTEN FOR
UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

$$

SIMPSON

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

99W INVEST 140927 1800 9.4N 159.9E WPAC 15 1010

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN21 PGTW 272030 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262221Z SEP 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 262230)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 262230). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 163.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
9.4N 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. RECENT
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LACK OF LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE 261725Z AMSU-B AND 261711Z GMI SENSORS
SHOW THE APPARENT MID LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE LESS
CONSOLIDATED THAN 24 HOURS AGO. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE, THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSOLIDATION AND
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO MEDIUM.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DTG IN MANOP HEADER.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

JMA is with TD.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 155E WNW 20 KT.

[cycloneye]

First JTWC warning for 18W.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280551Z SEP 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 12.4N 153.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 153.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 13.6N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.8N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.3N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.6N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.0N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.1N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.4N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 152.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND
292100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 280551Z SEP 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 280600). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (KAMMURI)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
759 AM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...STRENGTHENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W FORMS 540 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
FIRST COMPLETE STATEMENT.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
TINIAN...SAIPAN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF MARIANAS WATERS AROUND SAIPAN AND TINIAN OUT TO 40
NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 153.1 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 570 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 630 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WILL BE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS WITH THE CENTER PASSING
NEAR...MOST LIKELY JUST NORTH OF...SAIPAN SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 18W INTENSIFYING INTO A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND INTO A TYPHOON JUST WEST OF THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY
VARYING IMPACTS AND A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WATCHES SOUTHWARD.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES
FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS GIVEN TRACK UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS... DANGEROUS SURF...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE
ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 11 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-290600-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
759 AM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. EVACUATE IF ORDERED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. BOAT OWNERS AND
CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR
SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH AT THIS TIME.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS...THOUGH LARGE WAVES COULD ARRIVE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

...INLAND FLOODING...
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF 18W...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE LIKELY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...WITH THE AREA REMAINING UNDER A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE FLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER 18W PASSES BY.

$$
WROE

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 12.5N 152.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 152.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.7N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.2N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.6N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.9N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.0N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.2N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.9N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 151.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM NORTH
OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 17W (KAMMURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 2903000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM NORTH
OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT
BROAD CIRCULATION ABOUT A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 28216Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ITS INITIAL POSITION
DUE TO THE CHAOTIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEMS STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THERE IS A FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A POINT SOURCE TO
THE NORTHWEST. TS 18W IS TRACKING TO THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 18W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TAKING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
ROUTE. LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TO IMPROVE AND HIGH
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT NEAR TAU
72, WITH A DISPARITY OF ABOUT 20NM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE IS MODERATE DISAGREEMENT IN
MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE STR AND WHERE TS 18W
BEGINS TO TURN INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE. HWRF CONTINUES TO BE THE
WESTERN, MORE FLAT OUTLIER WHILE COAMPS-TC DEPICTS THE EASTERN, MORE
NORTHERN SCENARIO. DUE TO THE SPREAD OF OVER 450NM IN BY TAU 120,
THE JTWC TRACK CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 290024

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (NW OF POHNPEI)

B. 28/2332Z

C. 12.5N

D. 152.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN



TXPQ21 KNES 282118
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 28/2032Z

C. 12.3N

D. 152.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290112 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 18W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1100 AM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 18W STRENGTHENING AND MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.5N 152.2E

ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 485 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 18W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
152.2 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST AT 13 MPH. THIS MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUTTING THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 18W IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING IT A
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
IN 48 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 PM.

$$

WROE

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 290333 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 18W ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
200 PM CHST MON SEP 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM 18W STRENGTHENING AND THREATENING THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TYPHOON WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TYPHOON WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 18W.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.7N 151.5E

ABOUT 420 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 440 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 365 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W...275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 18W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
151.5 DEGREES EAST.

TROPICAL STORM 18W IS MOVING TOWARD WEST AROUND 13 MPH. THIS MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PUTTING THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 18W IS EXPECTED
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING IT A
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 PM.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM.

$$

WROE

[euro6208]

NWS GUAM:

RECENTLY DEVELOPED AND STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM 18W WILL BE
ADVANCING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE SHORT TERM AND
WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT CROSSES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN.
BASED ON THE CURRENT GUIDANCE...GUAM AND ROTA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM...BUT SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO REQUIRE THAT A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH BE ISSUED THERE. ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE FORECAST TRACK
AND INTENSITY WOULD LEAD TO CHANGES IN IMPACTS...SO ALL THOSE IN THE
MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE SYSTEM. FOR THOSE IN THE
FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...PREPARATIONS FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN.ONCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PASSES...THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN WILL
REMAIN UNDER A MOIST...CONVERGENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

00Z with a 977 mb typhoon right through the NMA and a 932 mb system east of Okinawa...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE WITH
BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION,
WHICH IS LOCATED UNDER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS CDO FEATURE BASED
ON THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
290355Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE CORE
CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC DUE
TO WEAK NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY, THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED FLAT AT 35 KNOTS AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS. OVERALL, UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VIGOROUS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL POSITIONED NEAR 20N 165E. TS 18W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER, THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST OF THE NORTHERN MARIANAS.
B. TS 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THIS PHASE WITH A 60NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36 (OVER THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS) AND A 130 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A TIGHT GROUPING OF SOLUTIONS AND
SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE. TS 18W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE ON THE SYSTEM BUT
SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DUE TO A
MORE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT CREATED BY AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE SPLITTING INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS. THE FIRST, FAVORING A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. THE SECOND CLUSTER INDICATES A
SHARPER RE-CURVE SCENARIO NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD BY TAU 120. THE
JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO DUE TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THE DEEP, BROAD MIDLATITUDE TROUGHING EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER
EASTERN ASIA INTO WESTERN JAPAN BY TAU 96. TS 18W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 125
KNOTS AT TAU 120 WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS' DEPICTION OF THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND STR AS WELL AS THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD OF
320NM AT TAU 120, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Forecast peak is 125 knts!! THUS, NOT SURPRISING THAT THIS WILL BE A MONSTER

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to 40kts.

18W PHANFONE 140929 1200 13.6N 149.9E WPAC 40 993

[euro6208]

Much closer to Saipan with a possible typhoon...

WDPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CENTRAL ORGANIZATION AND
OVERALL STRUCTURE; HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS
FRAGMENTED OVER THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
291130Z METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTER CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL POSITIONED NEAR 20N
165E. TS 18W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PHASE WITH
A 115NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24 (OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS)
AND A 150NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWS A TIGHT GROUPING OF SOLUTIONS. TS 18W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE ON THE SYSTEM
BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DUE TO A
MORE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT CREATED BY AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE INDICATE INCREASING SPREAD BY TAU 120, HOWEVER, RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT AND IS TRENDING CLOSER TOWARD A RE-
CURVE POINT NEAR 25N 135E. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND COAMPS-TC,
THE REMAINDER OF THE VORTEX TRACKERS SHOW A 170NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO
DUE TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEP, BROAD MIDLATITUDE TROUGHING
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN ASIA INTO WESTERN JAPAN BY TAU 96.
TS 18W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 125
KNOTS OCCURS AT TAU 96 WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.