WPAC: PHANFONE - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 SEP 2014 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 13:42:20 N Lon : 149:45:40 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 997.5mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 3.3

Center Temp : -70.1C Cloud Region Temp : -59.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 47km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.0 degrees

[euro6208]

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 149.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 149.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.1N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.3N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.4N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.6N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.3N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.2N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.3N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 149.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
//
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

ugh, Guam radar down again...

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

18W PHANFONE 140930 0000 15.4N 148.3E WPAC 45 989

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 300052
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP182014
ISSUED BY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1100 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARD THE FAR
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...
PAGAN...ALAMAGAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS...INCLUDING PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHANFONE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 148.3E
ABOUT 175 MILES E OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 225 MILES ENE OF ROTA
ABOUT 270 MILES NE OF GUAM
ABOUT 250 MILES SE OF PAGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW...305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.3 EAST.
PHANFONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TYPHOON LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

BIRCHARD

000
WGMY60 PGUM 292250
FFAMY

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
850 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AS PHANFONE PASSES CLOSE TO SAIPAN...

.BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SAIPAN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS TROPICAL STORM PHANFONE APPROACHES AND THEN
MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND.

GUZ004-300700-
/X.NEW.PGUM.FF.A.0001.140929T2250Z-141001T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAIPAN-
850 AM CHST TUE SEP 30 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SAIPAN.

* THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

BIRCHARD

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY UNRAVELED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS HAD BECOME EVEN
MORE FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING RIDGING
ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE WEST ENHANCING OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 18W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS IT PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER AND AS
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INDUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. BY TAU
120, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS
THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INITIAL EXPOSURE OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTENSIFY
18W TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BEFORE STRONG VWS TAKES ITS TOLL.
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AS THE SOLE
LEFT OUTLIER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Better Organized...

[euro6208]

Strongest winds and rainfall away from the Main islands...

[euro6208]

EURO...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM NORTH
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CONVECTION
HAS DEEPENED. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A
301112Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY FIXES TO REFLECT THE OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING RIDGING ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE WEST ENHANCING
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 18W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER AND AS
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INDUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. BY TAU
120, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS
THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INITIAL EXPOSURE OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTENSIFY
18W TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 96 BEFORE STRONG VWS TAKES ITS
TOLL. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AS
THE LEFTMOST OUTLIER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY GFDN SOLUTION.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Peak east of Okinawa...

[euro6208]

Latest radar...

[Alyono]

what model is JTWC using? They are 5 degrees east of the GFS and about 10 degrees east of the EC

[phwxenthusiast]

what model is JTWC using? They are 5 degrees east of the GFS and about 10 degrees east of the EC

must be the NAVGEM? lol
i'd definitely favor the western side of the envelope. you have, GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, even the GEM is well west.

anyway, it looks like the system is beginning to bomb out now. we might have a typhoon by the afternoon.

[weathernerdguy]

i feel like this would be a cat. 5....

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to Typhoon status at 65kts.

18W PHANFONE 141001 0000 16.7N 143.6E WPAC 65 974

[SouthDadeFish]

Environmental conditions are there for rapid deepening. Get ready for another classic WPAC bomb, in my opinion.

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to Typhoon but JMA remains at Severe Tropical Storm. Forecast track shifts a little bit to the west in this warning.