WPAC: PHANFONE - Post-Tropical

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CrazyC83
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#101 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 02, 2014 12:33 am

When you have a pinhole eye you should at least go for the highest Dvorak reading available if you don't have Recon. Even still, Raw T#'s might be a better estimate.
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#102 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 02, 2014 12:34 am

TXPQ21 KNES 020336
TCSWNP

A. 18W (PHANFONE)

B. 02/0301Z

C. 19.5N

D. 138.2E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG EMBDEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF 6.5
AFTER A PLUS 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE 6HR AVG DT IS 6.4. MET IS 5.5 AND
PT IS 6.0. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE CONSTRAINT LIMITING
THE CHANGE IN FT TO 1.5 IN 12HRS WAS BROKEN.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

Based on Raw T's and the DT, I would go with 130 kt personally.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#103 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 02, 2014 1:39 am

euro6208 wrote:There goes our 145-155 knots Category 5. Dvorak likely underestimating the strength.

Anyone remember Wilma?


I remember PARMA of 2009 with that pinhole.
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#104 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 02, 2014 2:41 am

00Z GFS down to 928mb in 36 hours

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#105 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 02, 2014 2:45 am

18W PHANFONE 141002 0600 19.8N 138.2E WPAC 115 937

Category 4! :roll:
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#106 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 02, 2014 2:51 am

Latest JMA forecast cone, still noticeably east of the ECMWF and GFS tracks

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#107 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 02, 2014 7:32 am

TXPQ21 KNES 020933
TCSWNP

A. 18W (PHANFONE)

B. 02/0832Z

C. 20.2N

D. 137.5E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/6.0/D1.5/18HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...CMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CDG EMBEDDED IN CMG YIELDS A DT OF 5.5
AFTER A MINUS 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

The whole eye adjustment thing is why Dvorak does not like pinhole eyes. JTWC has no choise but to keep it at 115 knts or lower it now.

20141002 0832 20.2 -137.5 T5.5/6.0 18W PHANFONE
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#108 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 02, 2014 7:36 am

They keep it at 115kts.

18W PHANFONE 141002 1200 20.5N 137.2E WPAC 115 937
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#109 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 02, 2014 7:51 am

cycloneye wrote:They keep it at 115kts.

18W PHANFONE 141002 1200 20.5N 137.2E WPAC 115 937


I could argue for 120, but I honestly can't blame them.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#110 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:23 am

They updated the 12z Best Track decreasing to 110kts.

18W PHANFONE 141002 1200 20.6N 137.4E WPAC 110 941
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#111 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 02, 2014 9:39 am

It might be undergoing an ERC right now, given the incredibly small eye to begin with?
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#112 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 02, 2014 9:59 am

spiral wrote:WDPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, TY 18W HAS
RETAINED A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. A 020940Z
TRMM IMAGE APPEARS TO INDICATE FORMATION OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL AND
SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR THE
RECENT WEAKENING TREND. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK FINAL-T INTENSITY AND CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.5/6.0 (102/115 KNOTS)
FROM ALL AGENCIES. BASED ON
THE SMALL INNER EYEWALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND RECENT MOTION DESPITE A PRONOUNCED WOBBLE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT EXCELLENT NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY THE POLEWARD CHANNEL. TY 18W IS TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TOWARD A BROAD WEAKNESS CREATED BY A
DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CHINA AND
THE EAST CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TURNING POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TRANSLATES
EASTWARD, MAINTAINING THE BREAK IN THE STR. THE TYPHOON SHOULD
CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN ITS NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE AFTER
TAU 48, COMMENCING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 60 AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE POSITIONED OVER JAPAN. CONSENSUS NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN IMPROVED, TIGHTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS POLEWARD TURN. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THE CURRENT TAU 00-72 TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER SHOULD ALLOW
TY 18W TO INTENSITY FURTHER IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGIN
TO INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD, AND COMPLETE ETT. THE TRANSITION INTO A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR RATHER RAPIDLY AS THE CYCLONE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF HONSHU. AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND
FIELD, INCLUDING GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS, IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
SYSTEM COMPLETES THIS TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK DIRECTION IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, BUT TRACK SPEEDS VARY WIDELY AMONG THE MODELS. THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU, SO THE
CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS RAPID ACCELERATION AND LIES NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, GIVEN LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL DEPICTIONS
OF TRACK SPEED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND 18W
WILL INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD,
IT WILL ULTIMATELY BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TRANSITION INTO A
STORM FORCE LOW BY TAU


That new bigger and badder eyewall will be amazing to watch once completed...
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#113 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:34 am

Image

Pinhole to Big eye!
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#114 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:01 am

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#115 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:02 am

Image

CP below 880 mb...
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#116 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:21 am

Image

Another view of the pinhole eye earlier...
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#117 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 02, 2014 12:35 pm

12Z GFS 72 hours:

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#118 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:08 pm

So much for the pinhole eye.
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Re:

#119 Postby phwxenthusiast » Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:31 pm

bahamaswx wrote:So much for the pinhole eye.


it had to collapse sooner or later. it was really tight and the outer eyewall was already taking shape even before the primary eyewall was fully completed.
It looks like the EWRC is somewhat successful though.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#120 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 03, 2014 12:13 am

Category 3 Phanfone...

WDPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
INDICATES A RAGGED EYE FEATURE, AND THUS WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, A 022123Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A LARGE EYE (ABOUT 50NM IN DIAMETER) FEATURE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON BOTH THE MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE, ALTHOUGH LOWER RESOLUTION THAN
OTHER SENSORS, SEEMS TO INDICATE COMPLETION OF THE POSSIBLE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). HOWEVER, A HIGHER RESOLUTION MICROWAVE
PASS IS REQUIRED TO VERIFY THE PROCESS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AND POSSIBILITY OF AN ERC OCCURRING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A GOOD POLEWARD CHANNEL, AND CONTINUED, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY
DECREASED, RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 18W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TOWARDS A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED THROUGH THE YELLOW SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TURNING POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TRACKS TO THE
EAST. PHANFONE IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE STR AXIS BY TAU 36 AND
START ITS NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE. NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 120 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS DUE TO SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION VISIBLE ALREADY
IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP PARTIALLY OFFSETTING FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
CONDITIONS AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU 36, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK DUE TO A SPREAD IN THE MODELS, AND THUS
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE MIDLATTITUDE TROUGH AND THUS THE BREAK IN THE STR. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK LAYS IN CLOSE ALIGNMENT WITH THIS CONSENSUS THROUGH
TAU 36 AND IS FASTER AND TO THE EAST DUE TO A KNOWN HISTORICAL BIAS
OF DYNAMIC MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE SPEED OF RECURVE SCENARIOS AND
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). EXPECT THE INTENSITY OF PHANFONE TO
DECREASE BEYOND TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM IS AFFECTED BY INCREASED VWS
DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL JAPAN. AFTER TAU 48, EXPECT
TY PHANFONE TO BEING ETT, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED IN
THE MIDLATTITUDE WESTERIES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETELY MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH,
ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 96. A
FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD SHOULD BE EXPECTED, INCLUDING
GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS, AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES THIS
TRANSITION. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN, SPECIFICALLY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALONG SOUTHEAST HONSHU, WHICH
ALIGNS WITH THE FORECAST OF RAPID ACCELERATION AND RECURVATURE.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL DEPICTIONS OF TRACK
SPEED AND THE RECURVE TIMELINE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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