WPAC: PHANFONE - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#141 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Oct 03, 2014 8:34 pm

Looking elongated.
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#142 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 03, 2014 8:46 pm

20141003 2101 25.0 -133.1 T7.0/7.0 18W PHANFONE

I'd go 135 tbh, but I know the JTWC uses other agencies which are likely much lower.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#143 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:26 pm

0300z warning graphic by JTWC of now Supertyphoon Phanfone.

Image
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#144 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:33 pm

Storms with large eyes can sometimes be overestimated by Dvorak, as proven by Recon flights in similar Atlantic storms in recent years. I would set it at 125 kt personally.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#145 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 03, 2014 11:24 pm

Super Typhoon Phanfone!

WDPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING
NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 682 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A 35-NM EYE WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 032333Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
REVEALS A SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON MSI ANIMATION,
MICROWAVE EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STY 18W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS OUTFLOW, NAMELY THE IMPROVED POLEWARD
CHANNEL AS IT TAPS INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTS THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. STY 18W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TOWARD A LARGE BREAK IN THE STR,
POSITIONED SOUTH OF WESTERN JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM HAS
UPGRADED TO SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THEN SHOULD TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE STR. BY TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. STY 18W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
COMPLETE ETT AND GAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS NEAR THE KANTO PLAIN
LENDING INCREASED UNCERTAINTY TO POSITIONING DUE TO A BROADENING LOW
PRESSURE AREA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM IS WARM-CORE OR COLD-
CORE, STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ENHANCED BY A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER JAPAN. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS; HOWEVER, DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL TRACK SPEED
DIFFERENCES AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAPID ETT
PROCESS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#146 Postby bahamaswx » Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:23 am

Might be the ugliest super typhoon I've ever seen.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#147 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 4:21 am

Down to 120 knots Category 4...

WDPN32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING
NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM SOUTH OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 35-NM EYE EVEN AS THE SPIRAL BANDING
HAVE SLIGHTLY LOOSENED THEIR WRAP INTO THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND ON A
040607Z 37H SSMI MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 18W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
(GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS
IS OFFSET BY VIGOROUS OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE THAT
IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 18W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKIMG NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THEN SHOULD
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TY
18W IS EXPECTED TO BE RAPIDLY ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL BE A VERY INTENSE COLD-CORE LOW BY
TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND
LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
KNOWN MODEL TENDENCIES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#148 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 4:36 am

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2817

Typhoon Phanfong a Heavy Rainfall Threat for Japan
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#149 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 5:13 am

Image

Minami Daito Jima in the eyewall...
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#150 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 5:39 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 OCT 2014 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 26:56:24 N Lon : 131:47:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 946.8mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.0 5.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 52 km

Center Temp : +13.9C Cloud Region Temp : -55.7C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 132km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 34.7 degrees
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#151 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:42 am

06Z has 947 mb typhoon right through the spine of Japan...Likely a disaster unfolding with that volcano eruption earlier which could turn into mudslides...
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#152 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 04, 2014 8:47 am

Here is the 15:00 UTC warning graphic.

Image
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#153 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:04 am

WDPN32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING
NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM SOUTH OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL AS CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED UP.
HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE MAINTAINED A 22-NM RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND ON A 041051Z 37V SSMIS
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
110 KNOTS IS BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TY 18W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY VIGOROUS
OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 18W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THEN SHOULD
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TY
18W IS EXPECTED TO BE QUICKLY ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL BE A VERY INTENSE STORM FORCE
COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT
IS LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET
KNOWN MODEL TENDENCIES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#154 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:23 am

Image
Image

Monster 9C...
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#155 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:17 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 OCT 2014 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 27:49:56 N Lon : 131:24:53 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 952.1mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.0 5.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 46 km

Center Temp : -0.1C Cloud Region Temp : -60.6C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 132km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.8 degrees
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#156 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 04, 2014 7:42 pm

Looks like the JMA forecast track has finally shifted west and is closer to the GFS/ECMWF consensus forecast. The NAVGEM has finally joined those two reliable models as that model was recurving it east of Japan a couple of days ago. Still wonder why they were basing their forecast on the NAVGEM and GFDN for the majority of the time. These two models are not as reliable as the GFS/ECMWF.

Image
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#157 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:34 pm

0300z warning graphic by JTWC.

Image
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#158 Postby RaijinWeather » Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:07 pm

Typhoon Phanfone in Radar

Though the typhoon yet to make landfall close to tokyo, the extreme outerbands are producing heavy rainfall in islands of tokyo. Few stations have already recorded close to 200mm and Tokyo metro and near by areas have already received over 40mm and now the rains have intensified there.
Image
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#159 Postby supercane » Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:20 pm

Highest winds I can find are from Yakushima, reported from the N at 31.2 m/s ~ 60.6 kt (10-min), pressure 983.2 mb. See the amedas page at http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today- ... oupCode=64.
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Re: WPAC: PHANFONE - Typhoon

#160 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Oct 05, 2014 4:05 am

Live broadcast from WestPacWX:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUkbcjYzH64[/youtube]
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