EPAC: SIMON - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11214
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#161 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:08 am

EP, 19, 2014100612, , BEST, 0, 248N, 1175W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 70, 50, 60, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, M,
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114523
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SIMON - Tropical Storm

#162 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 06, 2014 11:02 am

TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014

Simon's cloud pattern continues to deteriorate...with almost all of
the remaining deep convection displaced well to the east and north
of the low-level center. Using a blend of Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB yields a current intensity estimate of 40 kt. The
vertical shear over the cyclone is currently near 25 kt, and is
forecast to increase to 40-50 kt within the next couple of days.
Given the hostile dynamical environment, continued steady weakening
is expected. The official forecast shows Simon becoming a remnant
low in 36 hours, although this event may well occur sooner than
that.

The motion is now just east of due north or 010/6 kt. Simon is
moving along the northwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level
anticyclone. An approaching shortwave trough should cause the
cyclone to move north-northeastward, with the remnant low moving
across the northern Baja California peninsula and then into extreme
northwestern mainland Mexico and the southwestern United States over
the next couple of days. The official track forecast follows the
dynamical model consensus, TVCE, rather closely.

Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated
with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja
California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert
Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during
the next few days. Please refer to statements from your local
weather office for information on hazards specific to your area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 25.1N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 25.9N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 27.0N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 28.1N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1200Z 29.4N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1200Z 32.0N 112.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114523
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SIMON - Tropical Storm

#163 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 06, 2014 3:46 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...
...BUT SIMON STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 117.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA



TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014

Although the tropical cyclone has very little deep convection
remaining, a recent ASCAT overpass indicated that the system had
not weakened as much as earlier estimated. Data from that pass
showed that the current intensity is about 45 kt. Water vapor
imagery shows quite a bit of southwesterly shear affecting Simon at
this time, and dynamical models show the shear becoming even
stronger within a day or two. The official intensity forecast is
above most of the numerical guidance and shows the system
degenerating into a remnant low in 24 hours. However, since the
ASCAT data revealed a slightly larger and stronger cyclone, and
considering the uncertainties in the forecast track, it is prudent
to issue a tropical storm watch for a portion of the west coast of
the Baja peninsula at this time.

The motion continues about the same as before, or 010/6 kt. There
is little change to the track forecast or reasoning. Simon is
moving around the northwestern periphery of a mid-level high
pressure area. An approaching shortwave trough should cause the
tropical cyclone or its remnant low to move north-northeastward
over the next couple of days. The official track forecast is a
blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, with the former
guidance farther north and the latter guidance farther south.

Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated
with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja
California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert
Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during
the next few days. Please refer to statements from your local
weather office for information on hazards specific to your area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 25.8N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 26.8N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 28.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0600Z 29.0N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1800Z 30.2N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1800Z 32.0N 112.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11214
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#164 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:59 pm

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 062351
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
500 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014

...SIMON TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 117.2W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SIMON
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 9 INCHES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. STARTING
LATER TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL FROM SIMON
OR ITS REMNANTS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE U.S.
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SWELLS FROM SIMON ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY AND TUESDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGHOUT THESE AREAS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11214
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#165 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:59 pm

EP, 19, 2014100700, , BEST, 0, 262N, 1172W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 80, 60, 90, 1010, 180, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, M,
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114523
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SIMON - Tropical Storm

#166 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:44 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014

...SIMON EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 117.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES





TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014

The cloud pattern of Simon has changed little since the previous
advisory. The tropical cyclone continues to produce a small area
of deep convection well to the north of the exposed low-level
center. Subjective satellite intensity estimates continue to
slowly decrease and the initial wind speed has been lowered to 40 kt
for this advisory. Westerly shear of 30 kt or more, along with
cool water, and a drier mid-level atmosphere should cause the
tropical storm to weaken during the next day or so. Simon is
expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday
and dissipate within 2 to 3 days.

The latest satellite fixes indicate that Simon has turned
north-northeastward or 015/7 kt. Simon should move north-
northeastward to northeastward in southwesterly flow between a
mid-level ridge to its southeast and an approaching mid-latitude
trough. The NHC track forecast lies between the ECMWF and the more
poleward GFS. The new track is close to the previous advisory
through 24 hours, but has been adjusted a little northward
thereafter.

Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated
with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja
California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert
Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during
the next few days. Please refer to statements from your local
weather office for information on hazards specific to your area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 26.5N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 27.5N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 28.7N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1200Z 29.8N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0000Z 30.9N 114.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114523
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SIMON - Tropical Storm

#167 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:15 am

TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014


The cloud pattern of Simon consists of a tight swirl of low
clouds with some patches of convection to the northeast of
the center. A recent ASCAT overpass indicated that there are
35-kt winds associated with the circulation. These winds were
primarily occurring to the southeast and northwest of the center. A
strong shear is forecast to remain over the cyclone, and Simon is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in about a day, and then
dissipate over the rugged terrain of Baja California peninsula.

Simon is moving toward the north-northeast or 015 degrees at 6 kt.
The cyclone is already embedded within the mid-latitude
southwesterly flow and this general motion should continue until
dissipation. The NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model
consensus.

Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated
with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja
California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert
Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during
the next few days. Please refer to statements from your local
weather office for information on hazards specific to your area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 27.1N 116.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 28.4N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 29.3N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1800Z 30.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114523
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SIMON - Tropical Storm

#168 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2014 9:50 am

TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014

The deep convection associated with Simon has diminished even
further, with only a small patch of showers remaining near the
north-central Baja California peninsula. Unless significant
convection returns to the circulation later today, the cyclone
could degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The intensity is
maintained at 35 kt for now, based mainly on continuity from the
earlier ASCAT pass. The surface circulation of Simon or its remnant
low is likely to dissipate while it moves into the southwestern
United States, unless it fails to survive its passage over the
mountainous Baja peninsula during the next day or so.

The motion is just slightly faster than before, or 025/8 kt. With
the cyclone expected to remain embedded in low- to mid-level
south-southwesterly flow, this motion should continue until the
system loses its identity. The official forecast is close to
TVCN, the dynamical model consensus.

Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated
with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja
California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert
Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during
the next few days. Please refer to statements from your local
weather office for information on hazards specific to your area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 27.7N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 28.7N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1200Z 30.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0000Z 31.8N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114523
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SIMON - Tropical Depression

#169 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:34 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014

...SIMON WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 116.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014

An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago indicates that there are no
longer winds of tropical storm force in the circulation. Therefore
the system is being downgraded to a depression and the tropical
storm watch for Baja California is discontinued. The current
intensity is 30 kt, and since the wind shear over Simon is forecast
to be very strong and even increase a little more over the next day
or so, additional weakening is expected. The interaction
with land could cause even more weakening than indicated here.
In any event, given the lack of deep convection, the system is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight.

The north-northeastward motion continues, at around 030/6.
A consensus of the dynamical guidance calls for this general
direction of motion with a little acceleration, for the next 24-36
hours. This will take Simon, or its remnant low, across
north-central Baja California and into Mainland Mexico.

Even if Simon or its remnant surface circulation does not make it
across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture
associated with this system is expected to spread across the
northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into
the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those
regions during the next few days. Please refer to statements from
your local weather office for information on hazards specific to
your area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 27.9N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 28.8N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1800Z 30.5N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0600Z 32.2N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114523
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SIMON - Post-Tropical

#170 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2014 9:42 pm

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014

...SIMON BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 115.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014

Simon has been devoid of organized deep convection for more than 12
hours. Strong shear and an unfavorable thermodynamic environment
should prevent any significant redevelopment of convection, and the
system is being declared a post-tropical remnant low at this time.
Based on earlier ASCAT data, the initial wind speed remains 30
kt for this advisory. The low should weaken during the next day or
so, and the global models suggest that the cyclone will become
an open trough within 24 to 48 hours as it interacts with land.

The low has turned northeastward this evening with an initial motion
estimate of 040/6 kt. A northeastward motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected until dissipation occurs. This will take
the cyclone, or its remnant, across north-central Baja California
and into Mainland Mexico.

Even if Simon or its remnant surface circulation does not make it
across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture
associated with this system is expected to spread across the
northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into
the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those
regions during the next couple of days. Please refer to statements
from your local weather office for information on hazards specific
to your area.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Simon. For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 28.1N 115.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 08/1200Z 28.9N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 09/0000Z 30.5N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11214
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#171 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:24 pm

Simon says goodbye to the world.
0 likes   


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest