EPAC: SIMON - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902014 10/01/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 40 48 55 57 59 58 59 58 58
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 40 48 55 57 59 58 59 58 58
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 36 36 35 36 36 38
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 15 11 9 11 8 10 8 7 3 6 10 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -4 -1 -3 2 1 5 2 0 -4 -6
SHEAR DIR 41 42 53 73 79 112 110 127 116 156 204 239 232
SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.5
POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 149 148 147 143 141 142 143 141 138 131 127
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 8 10 7 9 6 6 5 5
700-500 MB RH 82 81 82 81 81 80 76 75 74 74 71 71 66
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 10 10
850 MB ENV VOR 37 39 46 43 46 34 29 18 23 15 9 10 13
200 MB DIV 68 67 47 46 69 55 63 38 46 40 34 17 5
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 2 0 1 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 223 228 206 213 231 239 255 307 345 319 434 484 566
LAT (DEG N) 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 101.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 9 10 9 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 23 24 22 16 13 11 7 6 10 17 9 1 5

[hurricanes1234]

This has stopped development for a little. I wonder why?

[Yellow Evan]

This has stopped development for a little. I wonder why?

Much like the last 3 systems, it's had to face shear early on.

[Yellow Evan]

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form later
today or Thursday while the system moves toward the west-northwest
or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
this disturbance will likely produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Recon is planned to go on Friday.

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE FIX
ON DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 19.5N
110.5W AT 03/1730Z.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

WTPN21 PHNC 011400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 102.5W TO 18.1N 107.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
011330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N
103.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.4N 103.4W,
APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. RECENT
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION
ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERIES. A 011130Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A FAIRLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH A FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING IN FROM THE WESTERN FLANK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
CYCLONE IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA WITH LOW
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT WINDS. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

90%-90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with an area of low pressure located about 150 miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become better organized during the
past few hours. In addition, satellite data indicate that the
low-level circulation has become better defined this morning.
A tropical depression is expected to form later today or Thursday
while the system moves toward the west-northwest at around 10 mph.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will
likely produce locally heavy rains over coastal portions of southern
Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud slides during the
next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

EP, 90, 2014100118, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1040W, 25, 1005, LO

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 104.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014

The area of low pressure south of Manzanillo has become better
defined today and has enough organized deep convection to be
considered a tropical cyclone. The cloud pattern consists of a
small area of central convection west of the partially exposed
low-level center and a curved band wrapping around the north and
west side of the circulation. The initial intensity of 25 kt is
based on the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The structure
of the cyclone is consistent with moderate easterly shear as shown
by the SHIPS model. This shear is forecast to diminish in the next
12 to 24 hours, which should allow for some intensification while
the cyclone is moving over warm SSTs for the next couple of days.
Later in the period, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler SSTs
west of the Baja California peninsula and encounter a somewhat drier
airmass, which should lead to gradual weakening. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the HWRF and the SHIPS model through 48 hours
and is near the SHIPS forecast after that time.

The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 290/07, since the
center has only recently been apparent in visible imagery. In the
short range, most of the track model guidance, with the exception
of the GFDL and the GFDL ensemble mean, shows the cyclone moving
generally west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a
subtropical ridge. Model spread increases markedly beyond 36 hours.
The GFS and ECMWF are well to the left showing a more westward
motion, while the aforementioned GFDL and its ensemble mean show a
northwestward and then northward motion well to the right of the
rest of the guidance. The HWRF and UKMET models are in between these
solutions, showing a northward turn around day 3. The NHC track
forecast is a little to the left of the TVCE multi-model consensus
out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF solutions, but remains well to
the right of the consensus of those models at days 3 through 5.
Given the large spread in the guidance, confidence in the details of
the track forecast late in the period, including any potential
threat to the Baja California peninsula, is lower than usual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 17.3N 104.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 17.8N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 18.5N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 114.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 23.5N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Yellow Evan]

If this system intensifies, the track guidance should shift E much like most Baja storms.

[WeatherGuesser]

That didn't take long. Not forecast to do much though so far.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

EP, 19, 2014100200, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1050W, 30, 1003, TD

[hurricanes1234]

Stronger.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014

...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 105.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014

The cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized with some
developing convective bands. The center, however, is still exposed
due to shear and is located on the northeastern edge of the
thunderstorm activity. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on
T2.0 Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB and the University of Wisconsin
CIMMS. Global models and SHIPS guidance indicate that the shear will
likely diminish, and since the cyclone is heading toward a pool of
warm waters, some strengthening is forecast during the next 3 days.
After that time, the cyclone should begin to interact with cooler
waters and a more stable environment, resulting in gradual
weakening.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
or 295 degrees at 9 knots. A nearly permanent mid-level high
pressure system over northern Mexico has been controlling the
tracks of many of the cyclones in this region, and this is same
story all over again. The NHC forecast calls for a west-northwest to
northwest track during the next 3 days with a slow turn to the north
thereafter. By then, the steering currents will probably collapse
and the cyclone will meander while it weakens. The NHC forecast is
just a little bit to the south of the previous one following the
trend of the multi-model consensus TVCN, and considering that the
ECMWF and the latest GFS models are farther south than the
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 17.8N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 18.2N 106.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 18.7N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 19.1N 109.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 19.6N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 21.0N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 24.0N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[TheStormExpert]

Sounds like the NHC are beyond done with this East Pacific hurricane season.

[WeatherGuesser]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2014

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM SIMON JUST OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 106.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO AND
NAYARIT IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[WeatherGuesser]

TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2014

Satellite images indicate that curved banding features have become
better established during the last several hours, and the low-level
center is now estimated to be located beneath the deep convection.
Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and the University of
Wisconsin-CIMSS all support raising the initial wind speed to 35
kt, making the system Tropical Storm Simon. This is the 18th named
storm of the busy 2014 hurricane season in the east Pacific basin.
Simon is expected to strengthen during the next few days while the
storm remains over warm water and within a fairly low wind shear and
moist environment. The combination of an increase in southwesterly
shear and cooler water should stop the strengthening trend in about
3 days, and induce a gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast
is a little above the intensity model consensus, given the expected
favorable conditions during the next few days, leaning toward the
more aggressive SHIPS model.

Simon is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt, and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next 2 to 3 days while the
storm is steered by mid-level ridging to its north and northeast.
The model guidance is in fair agreement during that time period,
and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope. The guidance diverges significantly beyond that time
period, however, with many of the models showing a turn to the
north and then northeast toward large-scale troughing over the U.S.
Conversely, the ECMWF shows less interaction with the trough and
takes the storm farther west. The NHC track forecast lies on the
western side of the guidance envelope at days 4 and 5, similar to
the previous forecast, but confidence at the longer range is low at
this time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 18.1N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 18.5N 107.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 18.9N 108.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 19.3N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 19.9N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 21.5N 114.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 23.2N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 24.0N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

2014OCT02 120000 3.1 996.3 47.0 3.1 3.1 3.6 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -57.96 -54.47 CRVBND N/A N/A 18.26 106.47 FCST GOES15 38.8
2014OCT02 113000 3.1 996.3 47.0 3.1 3.1 3.6 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -64.26 -55.11 CRVBND N/A N/A 18.23 106.41 FCST GOES15 38.9
2014OCT02 110000 3.1 996.3 47.0 3.1 3.1 3.7 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -64.66 -55.82 CRVBND N/A N/A 18.21 106.35 FCST GOES15 38.9
2014OCT02 103000 3.1 996.3 47.0 3.1 3.2 4.1 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -49.26 -56.56 CRVBND N/A N/A 18.18 106.29 FCST GOES15 39.0

I know this is 8.1.4 ADT, but it seems to do well with weak systems. It got the center fix right.

[Yellow Evan]

20141002 1200 18.0 106.8 T2.5/2.5 19E SIMON

EP, 19, 2014100212, , BEST, 0, 183N, 1067W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1008, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, M,

Since NHC does not use 8.1.4 ADT, guess we're screwed.

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2014

First-light visible imagery shows that Simon is gradually becoming
better organized. The center is under a ragged central dense
overcast, and outer bands are occurring in all quadrants except the
north. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 kt,
while recent AMSU and SATCON estimates from CIMSS are 35-40 kt.
The initial intensity remains 35 kt, but this could be a little
conservative.

The initial motion is 295/9, and this general motion is expected to
continue for the next 2 days or so while the storm is steered by
mid-level ridging to its north and northeast. The model guidance is
in fair agreement during that time period, and the NHC track
forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. The
guidance continues to show significant divergence after 48 hours.
The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF, show a northeastward turn between 72-120
hours, while the the ECMWF and UKMET show a generally northward
motion. In addition, the NAVGEM shows a west-northwestward motion
through the entire forecast period. The track forecast compromises
between these extremes by showing a slow northward motion by 120
hours. Overall, the new forecast is similar to, but faster than,
the previous forecast. However, it is notably slower than the
consensus model TVCE from 72-120 hours.

Simon is forecast to remain in a light vertical wind shear
environment and over sea surface temperatures of 28-29C for the
next 48 hours. This should allow at least steady strengthening, and
there is an above normal chance for rapid strengthening as shown by
the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model. After 48 hours,
the center is expected to move over cooler sea surface temperatures
and into an area of westerly shear. These conditions should cause a
weakening trend, albeit at a slower rate than seen during Rachel a
few days ago. The new intensity forecast is increased above that of
the previous forecast and is in best overall agreement with the
SHIPS model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 18.4N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 18.9N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 19.3N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 19.8N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 20.4N 113.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 22.5N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 24.0N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 25.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven