EPAC: SIMON - Post-Tropical

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SouthDadeFish
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#81 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:44 am

One of the smallest eyes I've ever seen:

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Re: EPAC: SIMON - Hurricane

#82 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:49 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014

...SIMON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 113.8W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SIMON IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY...AND
SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE SIMON LATER TODAY.

SIMON REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014

Infrared satellite imagery indicates that Simon has undergone rapid
intensification during the past several hours. A small eye has
formed, and the cloud tops surrounding the eye are in the -75C to
-85C range. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to 102 kt
from TAFB and 90 kt from SAB, and the latest estimated from the
CIMSS ADT is 90 kt. Based on these, the initial intensity is
increased to 95 kt, and this could be conservative. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Simon later
today.

The initial motion is now 295/11. Simon is expected to move
west-northwest to northwestward for the next 36 hours or so as is
approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge to its north. After
that, the system is expected to turn northward and northeastward,
although there remains significant spread in the track guidance on
when and how fast this will occur. The GFS, GFS ensemble mean,
NAVGEM, and the GFDL show Simon moving quickly to the northeast,
eventually making landfall on the Baja California peninsula and in
northwestern Mexico. The ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models show the turn
occurring later and farther west, and these models forecast the
cyclone to dissipate over water west of the Baja California
peninsula. The forecast track continues to compromise between these
two extremes in showing a slow northeastward motion after
recurvature. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track
and is slower than the model consensus.

How long the current rapid intensification will continue is
uncertain, as Simon is now moving over decreasing sea surface
temperatures. The new intensity forecast follows the guidance trend
of showing 12 hours more strengthening. Simon is now forecast to
become a major hurricane, and it would not be a surprise if it
reached a higher peak intensity than currently forecast. After 12
hours, cooler waters under the forecast track should result in a
weakening trend, and this should become more pronounced after 48
hours due to increasing shear. The new intensity forecast shows
rapid weakening after 48 hours, with Simon expected to become a
remnant low by the end of the forecast period. It should be noted
that, if Simon follows the GFS forecast track, it would likely
weaken more slowly than currently forecast since it would stay over
warmer water and encounters less shear.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 20.2N 113.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 21.0N 115.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 22.2N 116.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 23.1N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 23.7N 117.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 25.5N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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#83 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:49 am

Beautiful outflow pattern:

Image

Could become quite the storm over the next 12-24 hours.
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#84 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:57 am

Personally I'd have this peaking at 115 knts.
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#85 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:05 am

Alvin and Theodore have to be jealous...
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Re: EPAC: SIMON - Hurricane

#86 Postby MGC » Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:32 am

Another beautiful EPAC hurricane....lets hope it stays at sea. With that small eye I'm interested in what recon will find.......MGC
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#87 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:08 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 OCT 2014 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 20:09:00 N Lon : 113:57:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 960.0mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 7 km

Center Temp : -34.4C Cloud Region Temp : -69.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 55km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.6 degrees
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Re: EPAC: SIMON - Hurricane

#88 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:12 am

Looking like Phanfone part 2 but much larger eye...Phanfone displayed 5 miles...
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#89 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:46 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 OCT 2014 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 20:08:32 N Lon : 114:07:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 951.9mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.1 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 7 km

Center Temp : -26.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 55km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.4 degrees
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#90 Postby Dave C » Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:58 am

Nice outflow channel to the north! :eek:
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#91 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:20 pm

Eye warming, but so are cloud tops.
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#92 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:21 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 OCT 2014 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 20:11:15 N Lon : 114:12:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 949.7mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.1 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -22.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.9C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 55km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.4 degrees
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Re: EPAC: SIMON - Hurricane

#93 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:27 pm

114 kt wind at flight level found.

114 084 015 00
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#94 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:27 pm

Early Recon data has good agreement on the 95 kt intensity (114 FL, 90 SFMR) but the pressure is likely around 950.
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Re:

#95 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:30 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Early Recon data has good agreement on the 95 kt intensity (114 FL, 90 SFMR) but the pressure is likely around 950.

Most likely Simon will be upgraded to 100kt based on the pressure readings
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Re: Re:

#96 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:37 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Early Recon data has good agreement on the 95 kt intensity (114 FL, 90 SFMR) but the pressure is likely around 950.

Most likely Simon will be upgraded to 100kt based on the pressure readings



Also, 90 SFMR w/ undersamplling would support 95 knts. Maybe 100 due to the pinhole.

And they haven't sampled the NE have they?
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#97 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:37 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 OCT 2014 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 20:11:15 N Lon : 114:12:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 949.7mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.1 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -22.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.9C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 55km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.4 degrees

I'd say it's still deepening, but likely close to its peak.
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Re: Re:

#98 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:56 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Early Recon data has good agreement on the 95 kt intensity (114 FL, 90 SFMR) but the pressure is likely around 950.

Most likely Simon will be upgraded to 100kt based on the pressure readings



Also, 90 SFMR w/ undersamplling would support 95 knts. Maybe 100 due to the pinhole.

And they haven't sampled the NE have they?


NE was sampled first.
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#99 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:58 pm

UPDATE: Now a Category 3.
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#100 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 12:58 pm

000
WTPZ64 KNHC 041753
TCUEP4

HURRICANE SIMON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014


...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SIMON HAS BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE...

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SIMON HAS
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/H...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT
IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. THIS MAKES SIMON THE EIGHTH MAJOR
HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 114.6W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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