WPAC: VONGFONG - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

It will be stronger than Phanfone if the models are right on the forecast intensity.

[euro6208]

959 mb right over the Marianas and bottoming out east of Okinawa at 932 mb...

We'll see...

[cycloneye]

Things could turn serious in the Marianas as Vongfong continues to get stronger fast. Here is part of the Guan NWS morning discussion.

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG IS INTENSIFYING FASTER THAN USUAL...
BREAKING THE CONSTRAINTS ON THE DVORAK METHOD. THE OUTFLOW FROM
TYPHOON PHANFONE TO THE NORTH WOULD NORMALLY BE MAKING IT HARDER
FOR VONGFONG. HOWEVER...THIS TIME THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH IS POSITIONED JUST RIGHT TO DEFLECT THE OUTFLOW AND TURN IT
INTO A OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR VONGFONG. THIS COULD ALLOW RAPID
INTENSIFICATION ONCE VONGFONG GETS JUST A LITTLE STRONGER.
THEREFORE WENT WITH TYPHOON WATCHES FOR GUAM THROUGH SAIPAN RATHER
THAN TROPICAL STORM WATCHES. RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS ARE URGED
TO KEEP ON THE LATEST INFO FOR VONGFONG.

[cycloneye]

Up to 55kts at 00z Best Track:

19W VONGFONG 141004 0000 9.7N 155.1E WPAC 55 982

[cycloneye]

0300z warning graphic.Peak intensity is raised to 115kts.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 032328Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND METOP-A MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO
55 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 19W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. DUE TO IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND RAPID CONSOLIDATION, THE
FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 12.
OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 70-NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE MARIANAS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING TS 19W
TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
C. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TS 19W TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY. AFTER TAU 96, A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN JAPAN CAUSES A BREAK IN THE STR ALLOWING TS 19W TO SHIFT
POLEWARD. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY AND THE
EXTENT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Ohhhh...

Now expecting near major typhoon Vongfong...This is getting exciting...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 040305
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP192014
200 PM CHST SAT OCT 4 2014

...TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG APPROACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AS WELL AS THE MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...10.0N 154.6E

ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 325 MILES NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 695 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND SAIPAN
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 705 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 810 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 154.6 DEGREES EAST.

VONGFONG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING
VONGFONG THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AROUND NOON ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. VONGFONG IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
800 PM CHST THIS EVENING.

$$

MCELROY

[euro6208]

This is the JMA track which is even closer to Guam compared to that JTWC track!...

[euro6208]

00Z right in between both agencies forecast track. Takes it right over Rota...

[euro6208]

Aw damn...The USS George Washington and Antietam with over 5,000 just docked in on the 2nd and helping to beautify the U.S territory. Looks like this typhoon might destroy their completed projects and might scare them away...

[euro6208]

http://www.guampdn.com

Saturday: 2:15 p.m.
The U.S. Coast Guard Captain of the Port has established port heavy weather condition X-ray for the ports of Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, according to a press release.

Condition X-ray is established when strong winds are expected at the port within 48 hours.

The Captain of the Port has ordered the following:

• All commercial vessels must prepare to complete cargo operations and depart the Ports of Guam when condition Yankee is established (storm expected within 24 hours). “Dead” ships or vessels/barges unable to put to sea must make a prompt written application to the captain of the port.
• Upon the setting of condition Yankee, which is estimated to be set at 8 a.m. on Sunday, all commercial vessels greater than or equal to 200 gross tons must depart and all inbound vessels are prohibited from entering.
• Upon the setting of condition Zulu (storm expected within 12 hours), the port and marinas will remain closed to incoming traffic and all cargo and bunker operations will be suspended.

The release states: "Any vessel or facility operator desiring a Captain of the Port waiver from the above restrictions must submit a written request. If you have questions or concerns, please call the Sector Guam Prevention and Compliance Department at (671) 355-4835 or the Command Center at (671) 355-4821."

[euro6208]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpRqIdbCu7g[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAP-e5hOrKI[/youtube]

Charles *Chip* Guard, Warning coordinator from NWS talks about Vongfong hitting Guam...

Former director at JTWC from 1989 to 1993...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 10.4N 153.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 153.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 11.5N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 12.5N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.6N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.9N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.3N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.4N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.4N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 153.3E.
TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM NORTHEAST OF
CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

DANGER FOR GUAM, especially for our fellow member euro6208...

The JTWC has a category 3 typhoon very close to Guam.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Start of RI?

[euro6208]

Here we go!

Vongfong now a category 1 typhoon with winds of 65 knots!

Track even slightly more south compared to the previous warning...

[euro6208]

Typhoon force winds for much of Rota and Northern guam where i live...

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 040859
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON VONGFONG ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP192014
800 PM CHST SAT OCT 4 2014

...VONGFONG BECOMES A TYPHOON...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
...SAIPAN AND INCLUDING THEIR COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...10.7N 153.3E

ABOUT 240 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 595 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
ABOUT 595 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 610 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON VONGFONG WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
153.3 DEGREES EAST.

VONGFONG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING
VONGFONG THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AROUND NOON ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. VONGFONG IS STILL
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM CHST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM CHST SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) SHOWS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A WARM SPOT - INDICATIVE
OF AN IMMINENT EYE FORMATION - EVIDENT ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE IMMINENT EYE FORMATION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 19W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, ALLOWING TY 19W TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY, REACHING 120 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED AND REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AS THE STR RECEDES SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TY 19W TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS BY TAU 96. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

I won't be surprised if this is far stronger than what is indicated...