WPAC: VONGFONG - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#261 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:25 am

WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING
NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC ANNULUS OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A ROUND 23-NM EYE. A 081234Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THE ROUND EYE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 145 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T7.0 TO T7.5 (140 TO 155 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST. STY 19W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE 08/00Z 500MB
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BREAK IN THE STR OVER OKINAWA WITH ZONAL WESTERLY
MIDLATITUDE FLOW POLEWARD OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 19W IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR
AND TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS POSITIONED NEAR OKINAWA. AFTER TAU 24,
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG OVER
WESTERN JAPAN AFTER TAU 36. THE JGSM, JENS AND ECMWF TRACKERS
INDICATE A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, AFFECTED
MORE BY THE TROUGH, WHILE GFS, HWRF AND COAMPS-TC INDICATE A MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD OKINAWA THAT REFLECTS NO
INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, REFLECTING THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND VARYING DEGREES OF MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
INTERACTION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. STY 19W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN STY STRENGTH THROUGH TAU
36 BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROPAGATES NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND RE-
BUILDS THE STR TO VARYING DEGREES. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A WIDE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IN A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ORIENTATION.
NEAR TAU 96, STY 19W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NORTH OF 28N
LATITUDE WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#262 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:37 am

12Z currently analyze Vongfong at 918 mb and deepens it to 914 mb in 12 hours... :double:
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#263 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:24 pm

wow amazing structure and awesome SAT presentation.
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#264 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:46 pm

18z Best Track remains at 145kts.

19W VONGFONG 141008 1800 18.8N 130.4E WPAC 145 914
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#265 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:28 pm

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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#266 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 08, 2014 3:36 pm

2100z warning. Track is much closer to Okinawa.

Image
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#267 Postby wyq614 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 3:43 pm

The genesis of Hudhud may bring this at least a little further west before its recurvature.
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#268 Postby AFWeather » Wed Oct 08, 2014 4:37 pm

Will be interesting to see just how quickly this weakens before it impacts Okinawa... they're not out of the woods for direct hit by any means. The CPA for Kadena was nearly 250 miles a day or two ago, and only 87 now.
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#269 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 08, 2014 4:53 pm

I just took a look at the wide view Atlantic WPAC image from NHC. I am amazed at the size of this thing. It is huge! :eek:
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#270 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:53 pm

Image
Image
Morning.
Last edited by jaguarjace on Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#271 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:57 pm

People on Okinawa are preparing. Here is a communication by the Kadena Air Base folks.


Here's the latest update for Super Typhoon Vongfong, from the 18th Wing Weather Flight.

Okinawa is currently in TCCOR 4. AT 3am today Super Typhoon Vongfong was located 556 nautical miles South-Southeast of Kadena. It had winds gusting to 201 miles per hour near its center and was moving to the West-Northwest at 7 mph.

The closest point of approach is forecast to be 62 miles East-Northeast of Kadena at 10pm on Saturday.

If Super Typhoon Vongfong continues to move as forecast, damaging winds of 57 mph or greater (sustained) ARE anticipated to occur from 11am Saturday to 6am Sunday.

The strongest winds on Okinawa are expected to be sustained at 80 mph with 103 mph gusts at 11pm Saturday.

Nows the time to prepare for possible storm impact by cleaning your home and work space, make necessary Commissary runs and stay tuned to AFN Radio Wave 89.1FM and the AFN Facebook Page at http://www.Facebook.com/wave89

We'll post updates as they are available.

--GySgt Griffin
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#272 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:46 pm

It remains at 145kts on 00z Best Track.

19W VONGFONG 141009 0000 19.1N 130.0E WPAC 145 914
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#273 Postby phwxenthusiast » Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:54 pm

how do you see the best track so early?
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Re:

#274 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:55 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:how do you see the best track so early?


http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#275 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:01 pm

Can anyone guess how many miles this is?

It stretches from the Philippines to 160E... :eek: or from the leeward islands to africa if it was in the atlantic...

Image
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#276 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:22 pm

The 0300z warning by JTWC.It tracks 57 miles east of Okinawa.

Image
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#277 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:39 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING
NR 26//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A ROUND 20-NM EYE WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON THE MIS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 140 TO 155 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND WEAKENING
TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, SUSTAINING THE
CONVECTION. STY 19W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 19W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD OVER NEXT 18 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BY TAU 24, A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG OVER WESTERN JAPAN MODIFYING THE STR, WHICH WILL
SHIFT STY 19W POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, THE STR WILL
REBUILD IN RESPONSE TO A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST, SLIGHTLY SHIFTING STY 19W TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, BUT STILL INDICATES A 150-NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. JTWC TRACK
FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 72 UNDER THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT OF A FAST MOVING WAVE-
TRAIN UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, ANOTHER MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING OVER
THE KOREA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM RE-
CURVE NORTHEASTWARD. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES WILL RAPIDLY DECAY STY 19W FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT
OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH INTERACTION , THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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#278 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:02 pm

This is one HUGE storm as well...if it makes landfall, it will likely bring an incredibly large storm surge.
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#279 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 09, 2014 3:57 am

19W VONGFONG 141009 0600 19.7N 129.8E WPAC 135 922

Strong Category 4
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Re: WPAC: VONGFONG - Typhoon

#280 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:00 am

Image
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