ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:12 am

AL, 99, 2014100806, , BEST, 0, 193N, 580W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2014100812, , BEST, 0, 194N, 586W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2014100818, , BEST, 0, 196N, 592W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2014100900, , BEST, 0, 198N, 597W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2014100906, , BEST, 0, 200N, 601W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2014100912, , BEST, 0, 204N, 605W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


Image

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116819&hilit=&start=0



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with
a broad surface low pressure area and an upper-level low.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
gradual development of this system as a tropical or subtropical
cyclone during the next few days while the surface low moves
northwestward or north-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 09, 2014 8:07 am

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#3 Postby panamatropicwatch » Thu Oct 09, 2014 8:07 am

No floater images yet and models are slow this morning.
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#4 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Oct 09, 2014 8:19 am

Off topic but looks like Soufriere Hills is showing activity in that visible image.
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#5 Postby panamatropicwatch » Thu Oct 09, 2014 2:17 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity, associated with a broad surface
low pressure area and an upper-level low, is becoming a little
better organized several hundred miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for additional development during the next couple of days,
and a tropical or subtropical depression could form by the weekend
while the system moves northwestward or north-northwestward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 09, 2014 3:27 pm

That doesn't look like a tropical system at all...
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Re:

#7 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 09, 2014 3:38 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That doesn't look like a tropical system at all...

Looks like a severely sheared Tropical or Subtropical Cyclone.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#8 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:43 pm

Definitely seems to be on its way toward subtropical cyclone status.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#9 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:53 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/flash-rgb-long.html

If you watch the low cloud motion near 21/61 you'll see them go from almost still to cleary from the west, so I'd say within 12 hours if not less (all depending on when we get an ASCAT pass or recon) this will probably be upgraded, possibly to a storm right away.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 09, 2014 6:41 pm

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity, associated with a broad surface
low pressure area and an upper-level low, continues to gradually
organize several hundred miles north-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical
depression could form during the next day or two while the system
moves northwestward or north-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:27 pm

00z Best Track.

AL, 99, 2014101000, , BEST, 0, 217N, 620W, 30, 1005, DB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#12 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Oct 09, 2014 8:09 pm

Looks like escape rout pretty much set in stone. Should make abrubt turn prior or just about 65w. Bermuda should see some affects though. Also shoud be just east of Bermuda also so we probably won't get any surf on the east coast. Euro in 10 days in Miami is another story.
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#13 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:48 pm

Kind of odd the NHC says conditions are generally favorable but the 5 day chance is the same as 48 hours.
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#14 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:35 am

Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system located about
350 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has
become a little better defined. This system is interacting
with an upper-level low and is producing showers and thunderstorms
mainly to the north and east of the center. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for development, and a
tropical or subtropical depression could form during the next day or
so while the system moves northwestward or north-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#15 Postby sunnyday » Fri Oct 10, 2014 6:44 am

Is this the one that earlier this week was predicted to go to Florida? 8-) 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#16 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Oct 10, 2014 6:52 am

sunnyday wrote:Is this the one that earlier this week was predicted to go to Florida? 8-) 8-)


no, that was the one behind it

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#17 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 10, 2014 6:54 am

Up to 90% as of the 8am TWO. We may likely see Subtropical Depression 7 or Fay sometime today if trends continue.

Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with a low pressure system located about 625 miles south
of Bermuda are becoming better organized, and a subtropical
depression or storm could be forming. If this trend continues,
advisories will be initiated later this morning or afternoon. The
low is forecast to move northwestward and then northward at 10 to
15 mph during the next couple of days. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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#18 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:41 am

It looks much better this morning with convection now getting close to the surface circulation, it could be upgraded as soon as 11 AM.

Image
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#19 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:33 am

:uarrow: I'd be shocked if this wasn't upgraded at 11am and straight to Subtropical Storm Fay at that! :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#20 Postby sunnyday » Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:35 am

Thank you, Hurricaneman. 8-) 8-)
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