ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FAY - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#41 Postby stauglocal » Sat Oct 11, 2014 8:25 am

sponger wrote:I am grateful for the surf but when was the last storm in the Atlantic that actually looked like a tropical system?

It's good to know I'm not the only St. Augustine surfer on this forum. Bring on the swell Fay!!
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#42 Postby sponger » Sat Oct 11, 2014 9:34 am

Yep, North Florida is taking over Storm2k!
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#43 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 11, 2014 9:44 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FAY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 65.3W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. FAY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.27 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

Tropical Storm Fay made the transition to a tropical cyclone around
0600 UTC based on AMSU and other satellite data that arrived after
the previous advisory was released. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft confirmed this transition had occurred, when
it made a pass through the northwestern and northern quadrants
indicating that the radius of maximum wind had decreased to about 40
n mi. A blend of satellite intensity estimates, flight-level surface
wind conversions, and reliable SFMR surface winds support increasing
the intensity to 60 kt. The latest center dropsonde data suggests a
central pressure of about 991 mb.

The initial motion estimate is 355/14. Other than the center
redeveloping a little farther west and closer to the deep
convection, the overall track forecast and reasoning remains
unchanged form the previous advisory. Fay is expected to continue to
move northward and then northeastward around the western periphery
of a strong mid-level ridge for the next 24 hours or so, and then
recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies with an increase in
forward speed by 36 hours. The official track forecast closely
follows the multi-model consensus TVCN.

The strength and direction of the current vertical wind shear is
forecast to remain unchanged for the next 24 hours, so no change in
intensity indicated during that time. By 36 hours, the shear is
forecast to increase to more than 40 kt from the southwest, which
should induce a weakening trend until the cyclone is absorbed by a
strong cold front in about 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 27.9N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 30.1N 65.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 33.0N 62.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 35.3N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN
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#44 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 11, 2014 9:54 am

Almost a hurricane! Can it make it before conditions become unfavourable?
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#45 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 11, 2014 10:00 am

Of course, recon always find something stronger in the atlantic despite their looks...

ADT only at 35 knots and Dvorak at 3.0 = 45 knots...

Maybe we can safely say Vongfong peaked near 170 knots then :lol:
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#46 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 11, 2014 10:30 am

For some reason, Dvorak seems to be way off in the Atlantic this year. It might have a chance at becoming a hurricane but likely would need to be this afternoon or evening.
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#47 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 11, 2014 11:30 am

As far as this becoming a hurricane, unless it presently is and is found to be one when the plane gets there, it's missed it's chance as the shear already seems to be increasing as the clouds are starting to separate slightly from the center.
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#48 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 11, 2014 12:40 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
200 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

...FAY MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 65.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. FAY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ONLY A
SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE
CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS OVER BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
...FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...NOAA BUOY
41049...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OF FAY...REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H AND A
GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A BUOY NEAR THE
CENTER OF FAY WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THIS
EVENING.

RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#49 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:34 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
500 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

...FAY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 65.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
500 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

Tropical Storm Fay remains a sheared tropical cyclone with deep
convection persisting in the northwestern quadrant. A 1442 UTC
ASCAT-B overpass indicated several 50-52 kt surface wind vectors in
the northeastern and northwestern quadrants, and buoy 41936 measured
a pressure of 990.2 mb a few hours ago when the center passed just
to its west. The initial intensity is being maintained at 60 kt for
this advisory given that the buoy pressure was similar to the last
recon reported surface pressure, and assuming that there is some
undersampling by the ASCAT instrument. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the cyclone
around 0000 UTC this evening.

The initial motion estimate is 360/16 kt, based in large part on
scatterometer and microwave satellite fixes. Fay is expected to
continue moving northward around a deep-layer ridge this evening,
and then turn toward the north-northeast by 0600 UTC, passing just
to the southeast of Bermuda at that time. However, only a slight
deviation to the west of the forecast track would bring the center
and core of strongest winds very close to or even over Bermuda, and
for that reason the Bermuda Weather Service has issued a hurricane
watch for the island. By 24 hours, Fay is expected to get caught up
in the mid-latitude westerlies and recurve rapidly to the northeast
or east-northeast before it merges with a frontal system by 48
hours. The new NHC guidance has again shifted a little to the left,
and the official forecast track has been shifted slightly westward
through 12 hours, and closely follows the multi-model consensus
TVCN.

Overall, there is no significant change to the previous intensity
forecast or reasoning. However, the current south-southeasterly
vertical wind shear of 32 kt is forecast by the GFS-based SHIPS
model to decrease to around 25 kt from the south-southwest in 12-18
hours, which could allow for some slight strengthening during the
convective maximum period around 0600 UTC tonight, and it is
possible that Fay could briefly reach hurricane status. After 24
hours, the wind shear is forecast to increase to more than 40 kt
from the southwest, which should induce a weakening trend up until
the time that Fay merges with a strong frontal system by 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 29.5N 65.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 31.7N 64.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 33.7N 61.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 34.8N 56.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#50 Postby tatertawt24 » Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:45 pm

Fay of 2008 was epic! This storm is a disgrace to her name. :lol:
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#51 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:37 pm

tatertawt24 wrote:Fay of 2008 was epic! This storm is a disgrace to her name. :lol:


Umm no. There are much worse storms out there. Besides, this storm is just as strong as 2008 Fay.
Last edited by galaxy401 on Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#52 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:37 pm

tatertawt24 wrote:Fay of 2008 was epic! This storm is a disgrace to her name. :lol:


This one may end up stronger.

edit: looks like the center is much closer to the convection than earlier based on recon.
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#53 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 11, 2014 6:50 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
800 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

...FAY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 65.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#54 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 11, 2014 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

...RAIN BANDS FROM FAY MOVING OVER BERMUDA...
...CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 65.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

Fay's cloud pattern is that of a sheared cyclone, with deep
convection bursting west of the center and little in the way of
banding features. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the cyclone this evening found peak flight-level winds
of 79 kt at 5,000 ft, but these were in an area of limited deep
convection southeast of the center. Several SFMR winds of around 55
kt in the convection support maintaining the initial intensity at 60
kt for this advisory. The central pressure fell to 988 mb just
before 0000 UTC, but ticked up to 989 mb on the final aircraft fix.

Aircraft fixes indicate that Fay has turned to the east of due
north, with an initial motion of 010/15. The cyclone should
continue to accelerate northeastward and then east-northeastward
into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24 hours. The new
NHC forecast track is close to the multi-model consensus and the
previous official forecast, taking the center of Fay just east of
Bermuda overnight tonight. This track will place the island in a
region with some of the strongest winds and deepest convection
associated with the storm.

Little change in intensity is expected during the next 12 to 24
hours as Fay will continue to be embedded within a high shear
environment. By 36 hours, Fay should be absorbed into a frontal
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 30.9N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 32.7N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 34.6N 58.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#55 Postby tatertawt24 » Sat Oct 11, 2014 10:04 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
tatertawt24 wrote:Fay of 2008 was epic! This storm is a disgrace to her name. :lol:


Umm no. There are much worse storms out there. Besides, this storm is just as strong as 2008 Fay.


I'm not talking about strength. Fay made landfall in Florida like three times and strengthened and formed her eye overland.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL062008_Fay.pdf

You have to admit, that's pretty cool.

Image
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#56 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 11, 2014 11:13 pm

:uarrow: Yeah it strengthened some over S. FL due to it's swamp-like terrain. :eek:
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#57 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Oct 12, 2014 5:11 am

Saved image.
Image
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#58 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2014 6:45 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
800 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...FAY LASHES BERMUDA WITH GUSTS TO 82 MPH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 63.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST. FAY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. BERMUDA REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 61 MPH...98
KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 82 MPH...132 KM/H...A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO
AS THE CENTER OF FAY WAS MOVING BY THE ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM BERMUDA IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA THROUGH
THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER BERMUDA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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NDG
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#59 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 12, 2014 7:47 am

Wow, had no idea that Fay had gone right over Bermuda, looks like to me that it was a bit stronger than they thought it was going to be.
Here is the report of the strongest winds and they reported the lowest pressure.

Conditions at: TXKF observed 12 October 2014 10:34 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.26 inches Hg (991.0 mb)
Winds: from the WNW (300 degrees) at 61 MPH (53 knots; 27.6 m/s)
gusting to 82 MPH (71 knots; 36.9 m/s)
Visibility: 1.24 miles (2.00 km)
Ceiling: 500 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 500 feet AGL
Present Weather: BLPY -TSRA (blowing spray, light rain associated with thunderstorm(s))

TXKF observed 12 October 2014 08:17 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.11 inches Hg (986.0 mb)
Winds: from the NNE (20 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 knots; 3.1 m/s)
Visibility: 2.98 miles (4.80 km)
Ceiling: 500 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 500 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 1500 feet AGL
Present Weather: -RA BR (light rain, mist)
TXKF 120817Z 02006KT 290V090 4800 -RA BR BKN005CB OVC015 25/25 Q0986 RMK WSHFT15 CB EMBDD SW-N WND EST
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#60 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 12, 2014 8:57 am

It does look like Fay indeed made a direct landfall on Bermuda. Otherwise the pressure may have been a bit lower, say 984. 10-min winds of 51 kt equates to 1-min winds of 57 kt.
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