ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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#61 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:01 am

I'm wondering if Fay is (or was) actually a hurricane? The ASCAT pass had barbs near 60 kt in a low-resolution setup...
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#62 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:03 am

Post season upgrade?
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#63 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:37 am

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

The cloud pattern associated with Fay has become more symmetrical,
and microwave data also reveal that the inner core structure is
better than 12 hours ago, including the presence of a closed
mid-level eye feature. I was tempted to classify the system as a
hurricane, but the consensus of the Dvorak T-numbers still support
an initial intensity of 60 kt. No significant change in strength is
anticipated, but only a 5-kt increase in the winds will bring Fay to
hurricane status. A strong cold front is rapidly approaching the
cyclone, and extratropical transition will most likely occur in
about 24 hours.

Fay has turned to the right as anticipated, and the best estimate of
the initial motion is toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 21 kt.
Fay should accelerate even further and turn more to the east while
embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC forecast is
in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is a blend of the
previous forecast and the Ocean Prediction Center input.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 34.0N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 35.5N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 36.0N 52.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/0000Z 36.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/1200Z 34.0N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/1200Z...absorbed by a front

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#64 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:55 am

I say yes to a post-season upgrade. Dvorak has consistently run below Recon, and if that supports 60 kt, it is (or was) likely stronger.
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#65 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 12, 2014 1:07 pm

Convection and organization has been persistent, if not a bit better than earlier, so hopefully this can get upgraded by the end of the day, even if for one advisory.

edit: hurricane now

FAY, D, AL, 07, 2014101218, , BEST, 0, 343N, 619W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ,
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#66 Postby ozonepete » Sun Oct 12, 2014 2:12 pm

You beat me to it Hammy. Was just going to say the same thing. :)

Here's Bermuda observations from last night and satellite images from 1715 UTC, a couple of hours ago. Looking really good. And notice Bermuda got up to 61 mph sustained last night as Fay was intensifying. Surely made hurricane right around then or not long after that.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#67 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 12, 2014 2:34 pm

ozonepete wrote: And notice Bermuda got up to 61 mph sustained last night as Fay was intensifying. Surely made hurricane right around then or not long after that.


Good chance they'll extend hurricane intensity 6-12 hours earlier based on that as well as the statements in the discussion this morning?
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#68 Postby ozonepete » Sun Oct 12, 2014 2:58 pm

Hammy wrote:
ozonepete wrote: And notice Bermuda got up to 61 mph sustained last night as Fay was intensifying. Surely made hurricane right around then or not long after that.


Good chance they'll extend hurricane intensity 6-12 hours earlier based on that as well as the statements in the discussion this morning?


I'm pretty sure they will. Bermuda made a good call when they issued a hurricane warning.
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#69 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:15 pm

I guess that is it for Fay, deep convection is now well removed from its LLC, cool and drier continental air has reached it, to me it is starting to get that extratropical look, IMO.

Image
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#70 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:15 pm

Suddenly with that satellite appearance I'm getting the feeling they'll backtrack and keep it a storm...
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Re: ATL: FAY - Hurricane - Discussion

#71 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:33 pm

We got it!!

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...FAY REACHES HURRICANE STATUS BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 60.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REACHED NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FAY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STATUS
TONIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE FAY BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


HURRICANE FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

After 1200 UTC, subjective T-numbers from and TAFB and objective
numbers from the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS indicate that Fay
has reached hurricane status with an initial intensity of 65 kt.
This coincided with the presence of a closed mid-level eye feature
in microwave imagery and a center surrounded by very deep
convection. Fay is the fifth hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season.

Given the strong shear and the expected interaction with a cold
front, Fay will probably weaken below hurricane status during the
next few hours and begin the expected extratropical transition.

Fay is already embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerlies and is
moving toward the east-northwest or 070 degrees at 22 kt. Fay should
accelerate even further and turn more to the east. The NHC forecast
is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is a blend of the
previous forecast and the Ocean Prediction Center input.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 34.7N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 35.6N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 36.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/0600Z 35.0N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/1800Z 33.5N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: FAY - Hurricane - Discussion

#72 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 12, 2014 4:24 pm

I guess the NHC is acting 3-6 hrs behind actual facts, clearly at 5 pm AST her satellite presentation & microwave image is not of a hurricane. IMO.
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#73 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 12, 2014 4:26 pm

Agreed they probably went a little too slow but I think the afternoon forecasters decided they didn't want to wait until post-analysis. I do agree it will likely go down as a hurricane hit for Bermuda though.
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#74 Postby djones65 » Sun Oct 12, 2014 4:38 pm

Although correct me if I am wrong please, Bermuda was never under a hurricane warning. A hurricane watch was issued last evening, but never upgraded to a warning.
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Re:

#75 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 12, 2014 4:44 pm

djones65 wrote:Although correct me if I am wrong please, Bermuda was never under a hurricane warning. A hurricane watch was issued last evening, but never upgraded to a warning.


That is correct, and probably the right call. No forecast had hurricane conditions in Bermuda but the watch was a good idea to be on the safe side. Although I do believe it went over the island as a Category 1 hurricane (strongest winds over water nearby) with 65 kt winds.
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#76 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 12, 2014 6:51 pm

It seems like while things have had general difficulty forming, the ones that have formed outperformed the intensity forecast, as I think Fay was initially only forecast to 40-45kts
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Re: ATL: FAY - Hurricane - Discussion

#77 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Oct 12, 2014 7:29 pm

Oh sure, some late season storms to knock me out of the prediction game. Just fudge. Thankfully Bermuda knows how to handle these storms and the season will be ending soon enough with all the cold fronts about to whack North America.... :grr:
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Re: ATL: FAY - Hurricane - Discussion

#78 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:14 pm

I thought October would have surprises as we now have two named storms, Fay and Gonzalo. Fay is now a Category 1 hurricane, which the intensity forecast models did not predict. This is like August to September rather than October when the Caribbean is most active.
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Re: ATL: FAY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#79 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:34 pm

Down to TS.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 58.2W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

Fay's cloud pattern has rapidly deteriorated in organization since
this afternoon due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear.
Microwave and last-light visible satellite imagery indicate that the
low-level center has become exposed to the southwest of a large mass
of very cold-topped convection. The same satellite data also
indicate that the center has become increasingly deformed, making
the initial position more uncertain than normal. This uncertainty
has resulted in a large scatter in Dvorak intensity estimates. The
initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, in agreement with the latest
Dvorak estimate from SAB, which was closest to the estimated center
position.

Even stronger west-southwesterly shear should affect Fay during the
next couple of days. Meanwhile, much drier and more stable air
behind a cold front impinging on the storm from the northwest should
become entrained within Fay's circulation. The combination of these
factors should lead to additional steady weakening, with global
models showing extratropical transition occurring in about 24 hours
(or perhaps sooner). The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and in excellent agreement with the latest statistical-
dynamical model consensus.

The exposed center in the last few visible images was south of
previous estimates, and as a result the initial motion estimate is
now more sharply toward the east, or 080/21. Fay is expected to
continue racing eastward or east-southeastward at the base of a
potent shortwave trough moving through eastern Atlantic Canada and
the north Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted toward
the right of the previous one, based primarily on the new center
position and motion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 34.1N 58.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 34.4N 53.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 33.9N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/1200Z 33.4N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 15/0000Z 33.0N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: ATL: FAY - Hurricane - Discussion

#80 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:45 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:I thought October would have surprises as we now have two named storms, Fay and Gonzalo. Fay is now a Category 1 hurricane, which the intensity forecast models did not predict. This is like August to September rather than October when the Caribbean is most active.


Sort of makes me wonder what November will be like.
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