ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:11 am

Disturbance east of the Caribbean is now 90L.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: To change the title
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2 Postby blp » Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:15 am

This is great. Now we can run the HWRF on it. That was quick.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#3 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:23 am

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#4 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Oct 10, 2014 9:30 am

who say season was over it look like aug in topical now
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#5 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 10, 2014 9:55 am

new convection blowing up around the possible LLC. Good sign and we could be seeing some slow development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#6 Postby MGC » Fri Oct 10, 2014 9:59 am

Looks like 90L has some low level spin. Tropics are coming alive after a long September slumber.....MGC
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#7 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 10, 2014 10:33 am

Models seem to want to make this one intense too...
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#8 Postby Gustywind » Fri Oct 10, 2014 10:59 am

A 1009 low pressure is attached with this twave.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM
18N51W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 13N51W TO 6N51W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 46W-51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO W OF THE AXIS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
51W-55W.
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#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:40 am

This will most likely do something similar to Cristobal and head towards the SE Bahamas but just miss it to the east as it abruptly turns north out to sea.

The thing that has my attention is how the Euro is the western most model where with Cristobal it was the eastern most while all the others had a FL hit, and it was the one to correctly forecast Cristobal's track about two weeks out when it fist showed Cristobal in the 10 day about mid-August.
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Re:

#10 Postby adam0983 » Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:02 pm

I am going on vacation to St. Martin this week. Does anyone think that Invest 90L will have a effect on the weather in St. Martin.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#11 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:42 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:50 pm

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has changed
little in organization today. However, environmental conditions are
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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#13 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:53 pm

Not sure what Kimberlain is seeing.

I see a system that is gradually organizing and one that models are quickly developing (though waiting for 12Z EC).

Development chances may be closer to 30/70 than they are 10/30 based upon the trends from today
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Re:

#14 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:12 pm

Alyono wrote:Not sure what Kimberlain is seeing.

I see a system that is gradually organizing and one that models are quickly developing (though waiting for 12Z EC).

Development chances may be closer to 30/70 than they are 10/30 based upon the trends from today


Strongly agreed.
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#15 Postby weatherfanatic » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:14 pm

Hey Alyono, I agree 10/30 is low but they could easily put it up fast at 8pm and 2am and as usual they can always do special advisories as you know as a pro met. And with you saying this I put more stance in it.
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Re: Re:

#16 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:33 pm

adam0983 wrote:I am going on vacation to St. Martin this week. Does anyone think that Invest 90L will have a effect on the weather in St. Martin.


When is "this week"? Expect rain there Sunday through Monday morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:41 pm

18z Best Track:

AL, 90, 2014101018, , BEST, 0, 141N, 500W, 25, 1009, DB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#18 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:09 pm

Fairly strong cold front will be pushing off the East U.S. Coast in advance of this system early next week. Both the GFS and Euro turn it sharply northward well east of Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:14 pm

Here is what the San Juan NWS discusses about this wave.

THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AND SOME
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNED.
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#20 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:17 pm

I have seen crazier things happen, but if I was a betting man, 90L, if it develops,will recurve somewhere between 70 to 75 degrees Longitude checking the very latest EURO run. The strong trough will be in the SE U.S. within the next week and likely pick up the system and keep it well east of the Florida peninsula with only a possible threat to Bermuda next week. Hope the folks in the NE Caribbean will keep close tabs on 90L the next few days and the extreme SE Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos specifically.

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