ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

I'll give it <10% chance at this point, the Euro tracks it over the main islands, and the only models that develop this now are the ones that develop every thunderstorm into a hurricane. And there is a good amount of dry air just to the northeast that is moving faster SW than the system itself.

[gatorcane]

Looking decent on sat imagery though. Saved loop below:

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Why would the NHC up the percentages? I do spy with my eye some dry air coming down from the north. Actually it is quite a bit of dry air or in other terms A LOT.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 90, 2014101118, , BEST, 0, 166N, 548W, 25, 1010, LO

[gatorcane]

The trough that the models think will turn this system well east of the U.S. is another powerful one. In fact below is a snippet from NWS Miami, note the bold part. Looks more like November of December out there with the pattern next week!

A COLD FRONT SPAWNED BY A CLOSED H5 LOW MOVING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEARLY 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL PER THE GEFS, WILL ENTER FLORIDA DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Is there a chance that the trough doesn't dig down enough or falls apart some?

[AJC3]

Why would the NHC up the percentages? I do spy with my eye some dry air coming down from the north. Actually it is quite a bit of dry air or in other terms A LOT.

Compared to this morning, the formative curved convective banding structure has started to look better on visible imagery this afternoon.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Why would the NHC up the percentages? I do spy with my eye some dry air coming down from the north. Actually it is quite a bit of dry air or in other terms A LOT.

Compared to this morning, the formative curved convective banding structure has started to look better on visible imagery this afternoon.

It looks VERY GOOD right now I thought the dry air would kill it off but in the last few hours it has started looking impressive. Am I the only one who sees that?

[Hurricaneman]

This because of dry air may delay but looking at the structure of the system not deny development and could get dicey for the Turks and Caicos

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[abajan]

Why would the NHC up the percentages? I do spy with my eye some dry air coming down from the north. Actually it is quite a bit of dry air or in other terms A LOT.

Compared to this morning, the formative curved convective banding structure has started to look better on visible imagery this afternoon.

It looks VERY GOOD right now I thought the dry air would kill it off but in the last few hours it has started looking impressive. Am I the only one who sees that?

No, you're not because I'm seeing it too. I had been looking at water vapor imagery all along but it's the visible imagery which shows what's really happening. Don't let your guard down on this one, guys.

The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

(Edited to include disclaimer)

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

No, you're not because I'm seeing it too. I had been looking at water vapor imagery all along but it's the visible imagery which shows what's really happening. Don't let your guard down on this one, guys.

I hope it turns out to sea because this thing is going to have a chance to become a major storm. It is small in size but those are easier to develop. Am I correct?

[chaser1]

WOW? What the heck happened in the last 36 hours?? Zero, to the Atlantic now having a storm, borderline depression, and an active wave. Funny how things somehow find a way to "just happen", LOL. Well, having not even looked at upper level maps or any real data, and in spite of looking at the satellite pretension indicating obvious shear, I can't help but think that this is quick on its way to becoming a named storm. Of course, it could go "poof" within a couple hours or develop nicely and then be quickly destroyed, but am thinking that this small compact system could prove impressive.

[cycloneye]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 13 min
What I think will be Gonzalo Plenty of rain coming for Puerto Rico, at the least

[MGC]

Mid level spin is on the increase. Convection seems to be holding it own. Odds should be increasing as Fay moves away.....MGC

[lilybeth]

Thanks to those posting pics and info this weekend. Last time I checked NHC website there wasn't much of anything on there...and that was Tuesday, I think. Goes to show me how quickly things change. I wonder will it organize a bit more this evening?

[Gustywind]

Thanks to those posting pics and info this weekend. Last time I checked NHC website there wasn't much of anything on there...and that was Tuesday, I think. Goes to show me how quickly things change. I wonder will it organize a bit more this evening?

Hi my friend. You have one thing to do: read the next TWO and TWD on this topic. You will have the best answer about 90L

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
area located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have
become better organized during the past several hours. Although
dry air may hamper development, the overall environment is
expected to be generally conducive, and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or so. The low is forecast to
move westward at around 10 mph, and interests from the Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas
should monitor its progress. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Sunday
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, areas of heavy
rains and gusty winds are expected to move across the Leeward
Islands starting early Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[Gustywind]

Up to 50%

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
area located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have
become better organized during the past several hours. Although
dry air may hamper development, the overall environment is
expected to be generally conducive, and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or so. The low is forecast to
move westward at around 10 mph, and interests from the Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas
should monitor its progress. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Sunday
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, areas of heavy
rains and gusty winds are expected to move across the Leeward
Islands starting early Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

50% oh oh something trying to form just east of Guadeloupe? Now...NHC is speaking about a possible TD formation. Hope that islanders in the EC are informed about this feature. We have to really monitor the situation.

[cycloneye]

Gusty,look what I said at the Caribbean - Central America thread

[Gustywind]

Gusty,look what I said at the Caribbean - Central America thread

I will read it Cycloneye tkanks. Luis what do you think about 90L?