ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Not looking that great on satellite tonight but the vorticity is strong underneath. Given the strong model support would expect convection to redevelop either overnight or tomorrow. In fact the ECMWF shows genesis in about 42 hours.

[ouragans]

what talk on islands about 90l?

I had an unofficial information from Guadeloupe's governing body stating they expect td or ts conditions for mainland Guadeloupe and/or the northern islands St Martin & St Barths, from the end of this week-end. I've never received this kind of info since 1999, with Lenny, overall 3 days in advance

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Building convection back up.

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan NWS:

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRST 72 HRS. IN GENERAL...THEY
SHOW AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT BUT WITH A
CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ONLY A FEW GFES MEMBERS SHOW A
CLOSED SFC LOW BUT THE MAJORITY STILL SHOW AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AND THE ONES THAT SHOW A CLOSED
SFC LOW INDICATE A TRACK JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GEFS MEAN...THE HEAVIEST RAINS
WOULD FALL OVER THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS (ZONE AMZ710) MON NIGHT
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION INDICATING THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALLING OVER PR
MON AND MON NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
TUE WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP A
"TAIL" OVR PR AS STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUE. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME AVAILABLE FOR THE MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
FOR ANY DECISIONS THAT NEED TO BE MADE.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized shower activity continues in association with a
tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands. While no significant development of this system appears
likely during the next day or two, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation by early
next week. This disturbance should move generally west-
northwestward at about 10 mph during the next several days, and
interests in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014


A TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS
BEEN RELOCATED ACCORDING TO ASCAT WIND DATA...SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MODEL GUIDANCE. THE WAVE IS ALONG 54W AND ASSOCIATED WITH A
1009 MB LOW NEAR 16N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like reality is setting in and this thing will struggle most of its life.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 90, 2014101112, , BEST, 0, 159N, 543W, 25, 1009, LO

[msbee]

We are waiting and watching!

[Gustywind]

We are waiting and watching!

Glad to hear you my friend ! Yeah we must do that in case as usual, let's wait and see if this is a false alarm or not.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the northward Islands and Puerto Rico are going to get wet from 90L but the question is when will it curve northward after it passes those areas.

The front approaching the southeast right now doesn't have that deep diving look so it might make it further west then currently anticipated.

Sat loop of the front http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&AGE=Latest&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-x&SSC=x-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&PAGETYPE=static&SIZE=Full&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-x/x-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes&&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant

[MGC]

TS Fay is causing problems for 90L. Give it a few days for Fay to get out of the picture.....MGC

[TheStormExpert]

TS Fay is causing problems for 90L. Give it a few days for Fay to get out of the picture.....MGC

I don't know the Euro and GFS which were both showing a major hurricane heading into the TCI's and SE Bahamas now really show nothing becoming of this. I think the unfavorable conditions will stick with it all of it's life, shear looks problematic all across the Atlantic.

[msbee]

We are waiting and watching!

Glad to hear you my friend ! Yeah we must do that in case as usual, let's wait and see if this is a false alarm or not.

HI Gusty!

[Gustywind]

We are waiting and watching!

Glad to hear you my friend ! Yeah we must do that in case as usual, let's wait and see if this is a false alarm or not.

HI Gusty!

Hi Barbarba

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

They are all becoming fish too and models do not show massive storms. For US interests it is looking over after this bunch curves out to sea.

[gatorcane]

My eyes are watching the Western Caribbean for possible U.S. landfall threats. Currently the GFS is showing something developing there in about a week from now and getting ejected to the NE. The ECMWF shows something in the SW Caribbean in the long-range though not strong. Discussion about this next system to watch is being discussed in the Global Models Thread:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&start=7980

[TheStormExpert]

My eyes are watching the Western Caribbean for possible U.S. landfall threats. Currently the GFS is showing something developing there in about a week from now and getting ejected to the NE. The ECMWF shows something in the SW Caribbean in the long-range though not strong. Discussion about this next system to watch is being discussed in the Global Models Thread:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&start=7980

The GFS has been showing this for months! And it does this almost every year at the beginning and end of the season, unless the Euro shows it count me out!

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
area located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have
become somewhat better organized during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for tropical cyclone formation during the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week. The low is
expected to move westward or west-northwestward at around 10 mph,
and interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to
Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor its
progress. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Sunday afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[Gustywind]

Up to 30%

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
area located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have
become somewhat better organized during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for tropical cyclone formation during the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week. The low is
expected to move westward or west-northwestward at around 10 mph,
and interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to
Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor its
progress. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Sunday afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

So continues to shows signs of organization, islanders please let's monitor closely the situation...in case of.