ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: Re:

#1281 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:47 pm

NDG wrote:
Alyono wrote:seeing unconfirmed reports of sustained cat 3 winds


No doubt, I think the NHC messed up by dropping its Cat back to 2 without the confirmation of a recon that it had weakened.


At this point, I don't see the NHC operationally going back to Cat 3 unless it is confirmed, since further weakening is expected. But the final best track would reflect those data.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1282 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:49 pm

Did the round of convective burst occurred during landfall resulted in higher winds being transported to the surface and cause the backside to be so intense?

Image
Last edited by supercane4867 on Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#1283 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:49 pm

NDG wrote:
Alyono wrote:seeing unconfirmed reports of sustained cat 3 winds


No doubt, I think the NHC messed up by dropping its Cat back to 2 without the confirmation of a recon that it had weakened.

IMO this is probably a bare minimal major hurricane hit for Bermuda no doubt!
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1284 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:06 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Did the round of convective burst occurred during landfall resulted in higher winds being transported to the surface and cause the backside to be so intense?

Image


That is what I think personally.
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#1285 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:06 pm

HURRICANE GONZALO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1200 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

...1200 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...BACK SIDE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO AGAIN LASHING BERMUDA
WITH SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...

DURING THE PAST HOUR...THE BERMUDA AIRPORT REPORTED SUSTAINED
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OF AT LEAST 93 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH A GUST
TO 113 MPH...181 KM/H.

DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 89 MPH...143 KM/H...AND
A GUST TO 144 MPH...232 KM/H WERE REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVING
SITE AT ST. DAVIDS NEAR THE BERMUDA AIRPORT.

DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 89 MPH...143 KM/H AND A
GUST TO 129 MPH...208 KM/H WERE REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVING
SITE AT COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM AST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 64.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#1286 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:07 pm

twc say their going stay doing coverage of hurr GONZALO want to show was error on twc part??
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#1287 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:09 pm

The South Florida Storm Chasers team on twitter posted they recorded a sustained wind of 113 mph and a gust to 146 mph, during that period one of their shutters came off the building and impacted their station, possibly damaging some of the equipment. They said they are very close to Commisioner's Point.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1288 Postby ozonepete » Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:14 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Did the round of convective burst occurred during landfall resulted in higher winds being transported to the surface and cause the backside to be so intense?

http://i58.tinypic.com/14mt7pc.gif


Very good question. From the timing of that convective burst (around landfall) and the fact that some subsidence was beginning to occur on the west and southwest sides near the eye as usually happens with accelerating tropical cyclones at these latitudes, it would be fair to suspect that collapsing thunderstorms on the southwestern side of the eye-wall did indeed transport more wind energy to the surface in the left rear quadrant. But there is another intriguing aspect: there were indications on radar that an eyewall mesovortex was rotating around the northwestern side of the eye-wall moving toward the southwestern side of it, and this also could explain the very high winds there (that may have been higher than the right front quadrant). I've been doing some research on eyewall mesovortices so I'm going to look into this much further. But either scenario or even a combination of the two could contain the answer. I'm hoping a lot of researchers join in to find out.
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Re:

#1289 Postby ozonepete » Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:15 pm

floridasun78 wrote:twc say their going stay doing coverage of hurr GONZALO want to show was error on twc part??


Great question and I'm glad you included the answer. I was very disappointed in their coverage.
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#1290 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:24 pm

Dreading the daytime pictures of the damage tomorrow. Hope they all made it okay. When was the last time a hurricane made a direct landfall over Bermuda? I know Fabian passed just west of the island.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: Re:

#1291 Postby AJC3 » Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:35 pm

NDG wrote:
Alyono wrote:seeing unconfirmed reports of sustained cat 3 winds


No doubt, I think the NHC messed up by dropping its Cat back to 2 without the confirmation of a recon that it had weakened.


Unless these winds are AOB 10M, calling out NHC as having "messed up" is completely unwarranted and unnecessary here. A statement concerning higher wind speeds at elevated locations has been in every public advisory issued by NHC since early Thursday, so cat 3 sustained winds would not at all be a surprise at elevations above 10M (the elevation that MSW is defined as occurring at).
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1292 Postby ozonepete » Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:48 pm

spiral wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Did the round of convective burst occurred during landfall resulted in higher winds being transported to the surface and cause the backside to be so intense?

http://i58.tinypic.com/14mt7pc.gif


Very good question. From the timing of that convective burst (around landfall) and the fact that some subsidence was beginning to occur on the west and southwest sides near the eye as usually happens with accelerating tropical cyclones at these latitudes, it would be fair to suspect that collapsing thunderstorms on the southwestern side of the eye-wall did indeed transport more wind energy to the surface in the left rear quadrant. But there is another intriguing aspect: there were indications on radar that an eyewall mesovortex was rotating around the northwestern side of the eye-wall moving toward the southwestern side of it, and this also could explain the very high winds there (that may have been higher than the right front quadrant). I've been doing some research on eyewall mesovortices so I'm going to look into this much further. But either scenario or even a combination of the two could contain the answer. I'm hoping a lot of researchers join in to find out.


Interesting you point that out i did see what i did think at the time was a hook form on radar in the NW eyewall band to with over 50 dbz's tornado?


Yes that was a great observation on your part and your post really interested me because I saw that possible rotation there too. I can't wait to see if we can find out what kind of damage occurred there. That would be a real "find". Of course any debris blown in the opposite direction expected would support the possibility of a tornado or an eyewall mesovortex. But for reasons too complicated to discuss here, it isn't likely a tornado would occur in that area of a hurricane eyewall but a rotating mesovortex would be a real possibility. If you ever find anything more related to damage in that area please let me know. I'm going to look there as closely as I can. :)
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1293 Postby AJC3 » Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:54 pm

ozonepete wrote: Yes that was a great observation on your part and your post really interested me because I saw that possible rotation there too. I can't wait to see if we can find out what kind of damage occurred there. That would be a real "find". Of course any debris blown in the opposite direction expected would support the possibility of a tornado or an eyewall mesovortex. But for reasons too complicated to discuss here, it isn't likely a tornado would occur in that area of a hurricane eyewall but a rotating mesovortex would be a real possibility. If you ever find anything more related to damage in that area please let me know. I'm going to look there as closely as I can. :)


I'm currently having a discussion with a couple of other NWS mets concerning synoptic scale drying/subsidence and its role in enhancing downward transport of stronger winds on the back (south) side of NHEM/ATLC tropical cyclones, where convection is sparse, or even lacking. We've cited several examples where this has taken place, and often times catches even the pros off guard as to the tenacity of the winds/gusts when the or radar presentation is relatively poor.

I'm sure some, especially our chaser friends on here, have experienced this first hand.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1294 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 18, 2014 12:04 am

AJC3 wrote:
ozonepete wrote: Yes that was a great observation on your part and your post really interested me because I saw that possible rotation there too. I can't wait to see if we can find out what kind of damage occurred there. That would be a real "find". Of course any debris blown in the opposite direction expected would support the possibility of a tornado or an eyewall mesovortex. But for reasons too complicated to discuss here, it isn't likely a tornado would occur in that area of a hurricane eyewall but a rotating mesovortex would be a real possibility. If you ever find anything more related to damage in that area please let me know. I'm going to look there as closely as I can. :)


I'm currently having a discussion with a couple of other NWS mets concerning synoptic scale drying/subsidence and its role in enhancing downward transport of stronger winds on the back (south) side of NHEM/ATLC tropical cyclones, where convection is sparse, or even lacking. We've cited several examples where this has taken place, and often times catches even the pros off guard as to the tenacity of the winds/gusts when the or radar presentation is relatively poor.

I'm sure some, especially our chaser friends on here, have experienced this first hand.


I've got my own stories from right here in NYC. :) But it was very satisfying to see how a number of our S2K friends here noticed it as well.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1295 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 12:16 am

ozonepete wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
ozonepete wrote: Yes that was a great observation on your part and your post really interested me because I saw that possible rotation there too. I can't wait to see if we can find out what kind of damage occurred there. That would be a real "find". Of course any debris blown in the opposite direction expected would support the possibility of a tornado or an eyewall mesovortex. But for reasons too complicated to discuss here, it isn't likely a tornado would occur in that area of a hurricane eyewall but a rotating mesovortex would be a real possibility. If you ever find anything more related to damage in that area please let me know. I'm going to look there as closely as I can. :)


I'm currently having a discussion with a couple of other NWS mets concerning synoptic scale drying/subsidence and its role in enhancing downward transport of stronger winds on the back (south) side of NHEM/ATLC tropical cyclones, where convection is sparse, or even lacking. We've cited several examples where this has taken place, and often times catches even the pros off guard as to the tenacity of the winds/gusts when the or radar presentation is relatively poor.

I'm sure some, especially our chaser friends on here, have experienced this first hand.


I've got my own stories from right here in NYC. :) But it was very satisfying to see how a number of our S2K friends here noticed it as well.


Another factor might be wind funnelling from a preferred direction catching those instruments.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1296 Postby AJC3 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 12:20 am

ozonepete wrote: I've got my own stories from right here in NYC. :)


Hanna from 2008 was one of the storms that was mentioned. :D
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#1297 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Oct 18, 2014 12:39 am

The good thing about this fascinating discussion about eyewall mesovortices and subsidence, etc. is that we almost certainly have gotten a mountain of excellent close-range data since the storm happened to pass right over a rather well-equipped island... which is horrible news for Bermuda, of course, but as they say, rising from the ashes of tragedy...

Usually when we get land observations from hurricanes, the land mass has changed the storm's structure significantly. Bermuda is small enough that we're basically (and technically) sampling a mid-ocean storm at surface level. Talk about needle in a haystack. But really, "I'll see your dropsonde and raise you a weather balloon!" How awesome is that?!
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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#1298 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 12:55 am

Both balloons would provide interesting data. The first one they said was caught in downdrafts and then trees. I don't know how far it made it. The second one is the one that got off the ground, so to speak. Awesome and amazing they got it off at all!
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1299 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:39 am

Hey Equus and Bru yeah this one left a ton of good data. I think a lot of good research papers can come out of this. And yes we hope there wasn't any suffering on the island other than some loss of property, which, unlike lives, can be replaced.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1300 Postby abajan » Sat Oct 18, 2014 4:59 am

Daybreak at Port Bermuda! The first thing you notice is the clouds coming from a different direction (for obvious reasons).

EDIT: Someone is now moving the camera around and my initial impression is that that area fared pretty well. But we'll see.
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