ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re:

#1321 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:03 am

CrazyC83 wrote:How can an island withstand 145 mph wind gusts without extreme damage? Did they strengthen building codes after Fabian?


they did not have extreme damage from Fabian either. 300 million is not that significant for an island like Bermuda.

Compare that to the Leewards that experience more than a billion from a similar hurricane as Fabian
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1322 Postby hurricaneCW » Sat Oct 18, 2014 12:14 pm

Yeah Bermuda is one tough little island and they do better than most locations during strong hurricanes. Any other place with a Fabian or Gonzalo and the damage could be anywhere from 2 to 5X as worse. It helps that they are a wealthy nation with a strong infrastructure. It would probably take a strong Cat 4 or greater for true devastation.
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#1323 Postby RL3AO » Sat Oct 18, 2014 12:32 pm

Thankfully outside of coastal areas, Bermuda is not the most surge prone place. Also due to its latitude, storms are usually moving quite quickly which limits rainfall totals.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1324 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:02 pm

JahJa wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:How can an island withstand 145 mph wind gusts without extreme damage? Did they strengthen building codes after Fabian?


Not to my knowledge but as I've said before I really believe that TS Fay that blew over us just 1 week prior to Hurricane Gonzalo really was a BIG blessing in disguise because as off guard as it caught everyone, it did just enough damage to the island to make everyone take Hurricane Gonzalo very serious.

If memory serves me correctly the intensity or Fabian caught everyone off guard hence the reason it caused so much destruction.

The coastguard and Royal Navy are flying over surveying the damage now but I'm going to be the first to go ahead and say that I don't think Gonzalo will be getting retired on the back of the damage it caused in Bermuda! Although it may be retired due to the destruction and loss of life it sadly caused down in the Caribbean.


There is still one more place that it is going to hit. Will it be as bad as Igor though?
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1325 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:Breaking News: Is great news!!

Police confirm there was no loss of life, and said early reports from the hospital indicate that while there were minor storm-related injuries, there were no critical injuries due to Gonzalo.


That is some great news. Good to hear that!
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#1326 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:48 pm

Based on that ASCAT pass (with a very low resolution) and improvement in structure, I think the intensity is actually higher than 80 kt - I would have gone with 85-90 kt for the advisory.

Close call for Newfoundland...
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#1327 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 18, 2014 4:38 pm

I wonder why CHC only has a TS watch out. Are they that confident that TS winds will not occur?
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#1328 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:35 pm

Alyono wrote:I wonder why CHC only has a TS watch out. Are they that confident that TS winds will not occur?


They tend to often be fairly conservative. But I would have a warning at least for the SE corner, since NHC has Cape Race at 67% likely for TS winds. Barring a track change, hurricane winds should remain offshore.

That said, once storms move to extratropical, often the wind field shifts far off that they are weaker near the centre (case in point - Maria in 2011, made landfall in Newfoundland as a strong tropical storm but the only TS winds were offshore).
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#1329 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:34 pm

It shows the hurricane passing by the watch area between the hurricane and extratropical points on the forecast. Perhaps they expect it to be at or very close to extratropical at closest point...thus any TS force winds the area receives would not truly be caused by a tropical system? But on the off chance the system stays tropical longer, they can say they at least put out a watch? I don't know...just my guess.

As far as the category stuff goes, I have some questions about that...for example, we all know that the max sustained winds are the max possible winds based off of a 10 meter height over open water...however, if you have a hurricane coming into an area that has land right on the ocean that is 50 to 100 ft or greater, should the max winds for landfall for those elevated areas be part of the advisory?

The whole point of the SSHS and advisory bulletins is to give people a reference point on what to expect. How can it be representative of the max possible winds someone may feel if it is only for the ocean surface? I think there should be two max sustained winds listed for cases like Bermuda. One should be your surface winds, and one should be for elevated surfaces. (Yes, they did a good job putting a little sentence in about winds possibly being higher at higher elevations, but I feel this was not adequate enough...especially considering it was only one sentence, and it was buried in the bottom of the winds subsection under Hazards Affecting Land).

Like this...as Gonzalo was approaching, they stated:
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.


Take the current sustained wind, multiply it by whatever percentage is commonly seen in that region (in this case 30%) and put that in your possible elevated sustained winds part. That quote came from the 11 am advisory, when Gonzalo had 125 mph sustained surface winds. That means winds at elevation could have been as high as 162 mph sustained! How in the world does seeing 125 mph max sustained, followed by a blurb about it "likely" being higher really prep someone who is about to potentially face 160+ mph winds? Even when Gonzalo made landfall with 110 mph winds (technically no longer a "major" hurricane), you're still talking about sustained winds of up to 143 mph, or possibly higher, at elevation. This could also be used for hurricanes that are about to directly impact major cities that have really tall skyscrapers, like Wilma in 2005. Who can realistically visualize winds "30% stronger than at the surface"? I couldn't, I had to pull out the calculator and do the math!

That wind speed also needs to be at the very beginning of the public advisory.

Example, here is the beginning of the 11 am public advisory, with my additions in red:

...EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO ON BERMUDA RADAR...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 66.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT ELEVATION...UP TO 165 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


Does that make any sense?
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#1330 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 7:16 pm

The problem with elevation is that, how to define it? After all, there are so many variables that come into play - such as wind direction, exact height and topography. Also it can apply both for natural elevation and for building height (i.e. winds a lot higher on a 50-story skyscraper than at street level).
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#1331 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:10 pm

If the track goes any farther left, Newfoundland could be in for a big surprise tomorrow morning...
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Re:

#1332 Postby beoumont » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:20 pm

brunota2003 wrote:As far as the category stuff goes, I have some questions about that...for example, we all know that the max sustained winds are the max possible winds based off of a 10 meter height over open water...however, if you have a hurricane coming into an area that has land right on the ocean that is 50 to 100 ft or greater, should the max winds for landfall for those elevated areas be part of the advisory?

The whole point of the advisory bulletins is to give people a reference point on what to expect.

Like this...as Gonzalo was approaching, they stated:
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.


Yes, every advisory once warnings went out had the above prominently posted in it. The highest sustained winds at the surface station (airport) was 93 mph. What occurred at highly elevated stations built and placed purposely in the most exposed possible places is of meteorological interest; but not indicative of the true intensity visited upon a vast majority of the population during a landfalling storm.

Damage shots, at least what I have seen so far, indicate most of the island was hit by a category 2 hurricane and no more. Not just the structures, but the condition of the trees. 110+ mph sustained winds will usually totally strip the leaves from large segments of standing vegetation and completely thrash the fronds on palm trees. I did not see photos indicating that took place on Bermuda yesterday.

I think the NHC did an excellent job with their warnings, as usual.
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#1333 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:37 pm

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

NOT OFFICIAL, but this is how I would set the best track:

20141012, 0600, , TD, 16.3N, 56.9W, 30, 1009,
20141012, 1200, , TS, 16.4N, 57.9W, 35, 1007,
20141012, 1800, , TS, 16.4N, 59.0W, 40, 1005,

20141013, 0000, , TS, 16.5N, 59.7W, 45, 1001,
20141013, 0600, , TS, 16.7N, 60.6W, 55, 998,
20141013, 1200, , HU, 17.0N, 61.5W, 65, 992,
20141013, 1330, L, HU, 17.0N, 61.5W, 65, 991, Landfall, Antigua
20141013, 1800, , HU, 17.6N, 62.5W, 70, 987,
20141013, 2030, L, HU, 17.9N, 62.8W, 75, 985, Landfall, St. Barthelemy
20141013, 2130, L, HU, 18.0N, 63.0W, 75, 984, Landfall, Sint Maarten

20141014, 0000, , HU, 18.3N, 63.2W, 80, 983,
20141014, 0600, , HU, 19.1N, 64.0W, 95, 975,
20141014, 1200, , HU, 19.9N, 64.8W, 100, 973,
20141014, 1800, , HU, 20.8N, 65.6W, 105, 970,

20141015, 0000, , HU, 21.7N, 66.2W, 115, 956,
20141015, 0600, , HU, 22.6N, 67.0W, 120, 953,
20141015, 1200, , HU, 23.2N, 67.7W, 120, 950,
20141015, 1800, , HU, 23.8N, 68.3W, 110, 952,

20141016, 0000, , HU, 24.3N, 68.6W, 110, 953,
20141016, 0600, , HU, 25.0N, 68.7W, 115, 948,
20141016, 1200, , HU, 25.6N, 68.7W, 130, 940, Peak intensity
20141016, 1800, , HU, 26.5N, 68.3W, 125, 941,

20141017, 0000, , HU, 27.4N, 67.8W, 120, 941,
20141017, 0600, , HU, 28.7N, 67.1W, 110, 944,
20141017, 1200, , HU, 29.9N, 66.5W, 105, 946,
20141017, 1800, , HU, 31.1N, 65.6W, 100, 948,

20141018, 0000, , HU, 32.2N, 64.9W, 95, 950, Landfall, Bermuda
20141018, 0600, , HU, 33.7N, 63.8W, 90, 954,
20141018, 1200, , HU, 35.5N, 62.6W, 85, 956,
20141018, 1800, , HU, 38.2N, 61.0W, 85, 956,

20141019, 0000, , HU, 41.0N, 58.6W, 85, 958,
20141019, 0600, , HU, 44.5N, 54.8W, 80, 960,
20141019, 1200, , HU, 47.8N, 50.1W, 80, 960,
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1334 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:52 pm

This is huge:

Gonzalo has been maintaining a central dense overcast feature over
the large eye feature noted in microwave satellite imagery since the
previous advisory. A 19/0116 UTC ASCAT-B high-resolution overpass
indicated 78-80 kt surface winds in the eastern quadrant about 45
nmi southeast of the center, so the intensity remains 80 kt for
this advisory, which could be a conservative estimate. The same
ASCAT pass also indicted that the wind field in the southeastern
semicircle had expanded significantly, and the respective wind radii
have been increased accordingly.

IMO, SE Newfoundland needs a Hurricane Warning given the potential of landfall.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1335 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:56 pm

:uarrow: THE WIND FIELD OF GONZALO HAS EXPANDED. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOW
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.
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Re:

#1336 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:10 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This is huge:

Gonzalo has been maintaining a central dense overcast feature over
the large eye feature noted in microwave satellite imagery since the
previous advisory. A 19/0116 UTC ASCAT-B high-resolution overpass
indicated 78-80 kt surface winds in the eastern quadrant about 45
nmi southeast of the center, so the intensity remains 80 kt for
this advisory, which could be a conservative estimate. The same
ASCAT pass also indicted that the wind field in the southeastern
semicircle had expanded significantly, and the respective wind radii
have been increased accordingly.

IMO, SE Newfoundland needs a Hurricane Warning given the potential of landfall.

That's what I was just thinking, there needs to be at least a Hurricane Watch for New Foundland.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1337 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:12 pm

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: THE WIND FIELD OF GONZALO HAS EXPANDED. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOW
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

Definitely explains why they at least need to put up a Hurricane Watch for New Foundland.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1338 Postby Frank2 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:59 am

Atlantic weather radar from Evironment Canada:

http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=ERN
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#1339 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:13 am

Is Gonzalo the northernmost hurricane or one of, in this basin? I mean, it is almost off the NHC TWO chart.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Hurricane - Discussion

#1340 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:14 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
cycloneye wrote::uarrow: THE WIND FIELD OF GONZALO HAS EXPANDED. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOW
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

Definitely explains why they at least need to put up a Hurricane Watch for New Foundland.
The tropical storm force winds extend even farther now that Gonzalo is beginning to undergo transformation into an extratropical system: 310 miles, mostly to the south and east of the center.
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