ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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#1341 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:14 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Is Gonzalo the northernmost hurricane or one of, in this basin? I mean, it is almost off the NHC TWO chart.

I'm pretty sure Igor(2010) was the northernmost hurricane in this basin.
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#1342 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:27 am

Although reanalysis will likely change that, right now 1966's Hurricane Faith is listed as the northernmost Atlantic hurricane.
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#1343 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:33 am

Hurricane Gonzalo appears to be clearing Newfoundland and on its way to the British Isles. It could be a strong extratropical cyclone over there as is often the case with storms of this scope.

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#1344 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:07 am

Still a hurricane! Shocking storm indeed for a season like 2014 here.
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Re:

#1345 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:50 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Still a hurricane! Shocking storm indeed for a season like 2014 here.
Moreover, it hasn't weakened any since the 5 AM advisory. The maximum sustained wind speed and minimum central pressure are unchanged. Tenacious fellow!
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#1346 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:53 am

If anything it might be stronger now...and producing deep convection at 50N latitude is quite something. Hibernia Oil Field may have saw Category 2 conditions?
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#1347 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:01 am

:uarrow: Not to mention water temps are less than 50°F!! Very impressive that it could even maintain hurricane status!
:double:
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#1348 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:06 am

It still has to produce deep convection for at least 30 hours to hit the British Isles as a tropical system...not likely to happen.
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#1349 Postby leanne_uk » Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:23 pm

Well what will be left of Gonzalo will be with us here in the UK from around 8pm GMT tomorrow but the time frame is likely to change a little.
Wind and rain will obviously blue a huge factor but the mountains in Scotland could end up experiencing some blizzard conditions.
I am very much looking forward to watching this system track across the Atlantic to our shores. Fingers crossed that the potential damage is as minimal as possible.
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#1350 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:58 pm

AL, 08, 2014101918, , BEST, 0, 507N, 450W, 70, 972, HU,

Still a hurricane in the heights of the Atlantic. At what point do you put out tropical advisories for northwestern Europe?
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#1351 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 2:21 pm

Well, there goes the decoupling. At about 50N, you can see the clear low level circulation pop out and the mid level center and convection shunts off to the NE. Death by transition, or decoupling? Seems to me the low level flow changed (the lower level circulation clearly drastically slowed down as it reached 50N).
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#1352 Postby leanne_uk » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:22 pm

The Met Office for the UK has issued the following warning....
..............................................................................................
Issued by the Met Office

Sunday 19th October

YELLOW EARLY WARNING of WIND

Gales are expected to affect much of the country on Tuesday. Whilst Monday night will see wet and windy conditions sweeping eastwards, the strongest winds are expected as the rain clears eastwards and winds veer northwesterly through Tuesday morning. Gusts exceeding 50 mph are likely inland, with 60 to 70 mph gusts in exposed coastal areas in the west and north.

The public should be aware of the potential for disruption to travel and perhaps some damage to trees. Difficult driving conditions will result, exacerbated by surface water and spray. This alert is an update of the warning first issued on Saturday, including adjustments to the areas at risk; a further update is likely to be issued on Monday morning.

Valid from 0001 to 1500 on Tuesday.
..................................................................................

I can see the yellow warning being quickly updated tho as to me yellow seems a little too tame for this system.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1353 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:39 pm

Adios to Gonzalo as Tropical.

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.6N 41.8W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM NE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1354 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:48 pm

Gonzalo got big ACE units that has helped the North Atlantic season be like a normal one. The ACE for Gonzalo closes preliminary at 26.7625 and the North Atlantic got to 66.5725.
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#1355 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:51 pm

Here's a good joke:
Gonzalo went off the TWO chart for this last advisory. No symbol to be seen because it's so far north! :lol:
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#1356 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 4:13 pm

And that is all he wrote.

Does he go into the :Door: for a 2020 return, or the :Can: for good?
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Re:

#1357 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:And that is all he wrote.

Does he go into the :Door: for a 2020 return, or the :Can: for good?

I vote,
:Can:
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1358 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:Gonzalo got big ACE units that has helped the North Atlantic season be like a normal one. The ACE for Gonzalo closes preliminary at 26.7625 and the North Atlantic got to 66.5725.


As per wikipedia
Below-normal season: An ACE value below 66 (71.4% of the 1981–2010 median), or none of the following three parameters are exceeded: number of tropical storms: 9, hurricanes: 4, and major hurricanes: 1.


Interestingly with that said, by the technical definition, since the only thing failed to be met on here is the number of storms (and that may change next week) this season qualifies on the low end of the average range.
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1359 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:32 am

Image
Gonzalo a near perfect hit on Bermuda, bullseye... That's a good shot for such a tiny island in the middle of the huge Atlantic...
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Re: ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1360 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:05 pm

Somebody asked what was the last hurricane to make landfall on Bermuda prior to Gonzalo.

It was Hurricane Emily in 1987.

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However, Hurricane Dean in 1989 passed just to the west of Bermuda.

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