ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds affecting this
system are forecast to strengthen further during the next few days,
and development of this low into a tropical cyclone is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Gustywind]

Low pressure has disappeared... and hostile conditions seems to hindering at least short term developpment.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014



...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM
20N49W TO 13N49W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
PRESENT AT THIS MOMENT AS MODERATE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
PREVAILING IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N45W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N
BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
38W AND 43W.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although this system has become a
little better organized overall during the past few hours,
any further development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur due to strong upper-level winds. The low is forecast to move
northwestward and then northward over the central tropical Atlantic
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

91L hanging there despite the strong shear.Saved loop.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15.5N44W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 38W AND 43W.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system, if any, is
expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds while
the low moves northward or northwestward over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014



AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N44W DRIFTING
NW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-
17N BETWEEN 37W-44W.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2014101418, , BEST, 0, 157N, 425W, 30, 1009, DB

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located midway between the Lesser
Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not
favorable for significant development while the low moves
northward or northwestward over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[EquusStorm]

I get the feeling that we would have been easily talking about Hanna perhaps tomorrow were it not for the strong shear... it looked fairly impressive earlier.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N42W MOVING NW.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N43W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 40W AND 43W.

[StormTracker]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014


1. A broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms to the east of the center. Strong upper-level winds
should limit significant development of this system while it
moves generally northward over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[StormTracker]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N43W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 17N
BETWEEN 40W AND 43W.

[abajan]

I wonder what happened to its symbol on the S2K map.

[TheStormExpert]

I wonder what happened to its symbol on the S2K map.

I'm guessing invest deactivated.

[cycloneye]

It has been deactivated but that occurred a few days ago and ATCF put it back so for now this thread will stay here to see if it comes back once again.

[cycloneye]

Since NHC doesn't mention this area anymore in the Tropical Weather Outlook,the thread will go to the archieves forum in the next few hours.