CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS shifts to the west once again. Seems to have trouble with analyzing those mountains on the Big Island.





I wish the SSD floater was up for Ana...

[Yellow Evan]

00z GFS shifts to the west one again. Seems to have trouble with analyzing those mountains on the Big Island.

That should protect Hawaii a bit and thus spit it out and make it more likely to turn NE after approaching the island.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS shifts to the west one again. Seems to have trouble with analyzing those mountains on the Big Island.

That should protect Hawaii a bit and thus spit it out and make it more likely to turn NE after approaching the island.

Yeah Alyono was saying that if goes NE, a high may build again to send it back to the West over the Islands.

Also, this could remain weak and track west and then bomb out like the HWRF has been saying. After that it may feel a trough (ala Iniki in 1992) and be picked up. Really tough to say.

[jaguarjace]

I wish the SSD floater was up for Ana...

SSD has issues maintaining their floater homepage, so here's the floater page for Ana
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02C/02C_floater.html

Saved image.

[Kingarabian]

I wish the SSD floater was up for Ana...

SSD has issues maintaining their floater homepage, so here's the floater page for Ana
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02C/02C_floater.html

Thanks !

[Kingarabian]

00z GFDL now brings Ana much closer to Hawaii. Shifs to the west.

Maintains a strong hurricane.



00z HWRF also shifts to the North bringing it closer to Hawaii.

Also maintains a strong hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro continues to lose Ana, doesn't make much of it.

SAB says 45kts:
14/0600 UTC 12.9N 142.7W T3.0/3.0 ANA -- Central Pacific

[Kingarabian]

Back to the left once again.

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPA45 PHFO 140840
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST MON OCT 13 2014

INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE LLCC FOR ANA IS ONCE AGAIN COVERED BY
DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION
LIKELY LIES WEST OF IT. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER WELL
ORGANIZED...WITH A 150 TO 160 MILE WIDE CDO NOTED AS OF 1000 PM HST.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0/45 KT WERE DERIVED BY PHFO AND
SAB...WHILE 2.5/35 KT WAS DERIVED BY JTWC. SINCE PAST FORECAST
CYCLES HAD ANA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...WE WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND ASSIGN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KT.

ANA MAINTAINS A MOTION OF 315/06 KT...WITH THE STORM BEING STEERED
BY A RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE AS A WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SLIDES WESTWARD AND THE RIDGE REMAINS
DISPLACED NORTHWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT
AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND DUE TO A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE TVCN CONSENSUS
TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NOW TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AT 72
HOURS AND BEYOND.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT STEADY STRENGTHENING CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
OVER THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY DIMINISHES AND THEN REMAINS LIGHT. WITH
WATER TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48
HOURS...WITH ANA BECOMING A HURRICANE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. SHIPS
SUGGESTS A STEADY-STATE INTENSITY JUST BELOW 70 KT AT 72
HOURS...THEN A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEYOND. FOR CONSISTENCY...WE WILL
KEEP ANA AT 70 TO 75 KT AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 13.2N 142.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 13.6N 143.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 14.0N 144.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 14.4N 145.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 14.7N 146.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 15.4N 149.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 16.6N 151.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 18.0N 153.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[Alyono]

6Z MU now has this over Hawaii in a little more than 96 hours. Doesn't slow the system until after landfall

[supercane4867]

06z HWRF end of the run...

[Yellow Evan]

A little surprised at the W shift. Is the trough being delayed?

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to 45kts.

02C ANA 141014 1200 13.3N 143.1W CPAC 45 1000

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 AM HST TUE OCT 14 2014

OVERNIGHT INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED FIRMLY WITHIN
A WELL-PROPORTIONED AND SYMMETRICAL 220 TO 250 MILE WIDE CDO. DEEP
CONVECTION NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE MERELY PULSING AROUND THE CENTER.
THE COMBINATION OF FAINT BANDING IN ENHANCED IR AND THE AVAILABILITY
OF RECENT GMI DATA INCREASES INITIAL POSITION CONFIDENCE. ALL THREE
SATELLITE AGENCIES...PHFO...SAB AND JTWC...DERIVED A DVORAK
INTENSITY OF 3.0/45 KT THIS MORNING. THIS CONSENSUS...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUOUSLY IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION...PROMPTS US TO
INCREASE THE INITIAL INTENSITY THIS FORECAST CYCLE TO 45 KT.

ANA HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH A MOTION OF
305/04 KT...AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. SLOW MOVEMENT GENERALLY TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE AS
A WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
SLIDES WESTWARD AND THE RIDGE REMAINS DISPLACED NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER...ANA IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A WEST NORTHWEST MOTION IN THE
MID-TERM...FROM 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS...AS RIDGING TEMPORARILY
STRENGTHENS TO ITS NORTH. THIS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AGAIN
AFTER 48 HOURS AS DEEP TROUGHING FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING ANA TO ASSUME A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BEYOND 48 HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...TVCN CONSENSUS
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 48 HOURS...NOW CLOSELY
MATCHING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THIS...AND THE SEEMINGLY
WELL-BEHAVED INITIAL MOTION...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST TRACK
UNCHANGED FOR THIS CYCLE.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE RAPID STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36
HOURS...WITH SHIPS SHOWING ANA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 24
HOURS...AS EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES AND THEN REMAINS LIGHT. SO...IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE
IN INITIAL INTENSITY...OUR FORECAST NOW HAS ANA BECOMING A HURRICANE
AT 36 HOURS...OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE PAST FEW FORECAST
CYCLES...SHIPS EITHER CAPPED OR SLIGHTLY WEAKENED ANA AT 96 AND 120
HOURS. WITH THIS RUN...SHIPS PEAKS ANA INTENSITY BETWEEN 48 AND 72
HOURS...THEN WEAKENS THIS SYSTEM BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY
120 HOURS. WE WILL NOW FOLLOW THIS TREND...CAPPING ANA AT 75
KT...THEN SLIGHTLY WEAKENING IT AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. NOTE THAT ANA
IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AT 120 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 13.4N 143.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 13.8N 144.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 14.2N 145.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 14.6N 146.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 14.9N 147.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 15.7N 149.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 17.0N 151.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 18.4N 153.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[AFWeather]

They didn't elaborate on it in the discussion, but the weakening forecast late in the period is due to dry air to the north from the STR getting wrapped up in Ana as she approaches 20°N. The SST's decrease less than 1°C between where she is now and the big island, and actually begin warming west of the big island towards Oahu so I don't think that's as much of a factor.

[Kingarabian]

A little surprised at the W shift. Is the trough being delayed?

I just think some models were just too quick with it. Right now thr consensus is a Hawaii track.

That GFDL track to the NE and a close call with Hawaii seems possible as well.

[cycloneye]

We are going to have Recon!

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ANA
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. 16/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0102C ANA
C. 15/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A G-IV FLIGHT DEPARTING AT
16/1730Z FOR 17/0000Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: FIX TS ANA AT 17/1200Z
NEAR 15.6N 150.0W. 6-HRLY FIXES BEGIN 18/0000Z.

[AFWeather]

12Z GFS coming in. Now it's taking the center up along the northeast shore of the big island, stalling her out in the Alenuiha'ha Channel for 12 hours, then moving due north from there. That would be terrible for the northern communities on the big island.

[Alyono]

How much of the SHIPS weakening is due to MU being much faster than the CPHC forecast, resulting in Ana being located in the MU shear

[wxman57]

CPHC track is way slower than most model guidance. I have the center reaching Hawaii south of Hilo by Saturday afternoon, quite possibly as a hurricane.