CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[AbcdeerHI]

Alright, well aloha to Ana. Thanks for your guy's insight and knowledge.

Keep your eyes peeled, however!

Of course! I will be watching all weekend, hoping for something more exciting than this humidity and light showers.

[Kingarabian]

Ana has take a significant westward jog in the last few hours. Model guidance has shifted quite a bit west. In addition, Ana's wind field and squalls have contracted. Ana should pass far enough west of the main islands that no significant impact will be felt there. No TS winds, no heavy rain. Just a little windier than normal with a few showers.

Yep what a bullet Hawaii dodged on this one. May be a long time before they get a threat like this again.

ECMWF had it south of Hawaii from the get-go and it looks like it will verify. I am starting to think that for tropical systems in general, if the ECMWF does not show anything significant threatening land in either the Atlantic or E Pacific basin, there probably is not much to worry about. This model just keeps showing why it is the best out there time and time again.

Not sure how the ECMWF has done in the WPAC as I don't follow that basin much.

It still does have trouble sniffing out new development compared to other storms, though.

[Kingarabian]

Location: 17.0N 156.6W
About 185 miles (295 km) SSW of KAILUA-KONA Hawaii
About 310 miles (495 km) SSE of Honolulu Hawaii
Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph (130 km/h)
Present movement: NW or 310 degrees at 13 mph (20 km/h)
Minimum central pressure: 986 MB or 29.12 inches



Hurricane Category: 1

[Kingarabian]

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY,

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT,

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR,
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, MOLOKAI, LANAI,
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS, DEPENDING ON WHICH ISLAND. THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII WILL
REMAIN CLOSEST TO ANA THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE REST OF THE
STATE DURING THE WEEKEND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

[Kingarabian]

WTPA45 PHFO 180252
TCDCP5

HURRICANE ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ANA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH HINTS OF AN EYE PERIODICALLY OBSERVED IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALL THREE FIX AGENCIES AGAIN CAME IN AT 4.0/65 KT.
U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT TO BE 70 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 310/11 KT AS THE EXPECTED TURN TO
NORTHWEST IS UNDERWAY...THOUGH AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FOUND THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPECTED LOCATION. THE TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE DEEP ANTICYCLONE STEERING
THE SYSTEM IS NUDGED EASTWARD AND WEAKENED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH. THE PRIOR DELAY IN THE TURN...PRESUMABLY
DUE TO THE LINGERING STRENGTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE...HAS LED TO A
PRONOUNCED SHIFT OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE TO THE LEFT. THE
FORECAST WAS NUDGED TO THE LEFT BUT STILL REMAINS ON THE RIGHT EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A NEW DEEP
LAYERED ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF ANA AND SHOULD PUSH
THE SYSTEM BACK ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF
THE TURN CONTINUES TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...AND A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BY
DAYS 4 AND 5...ANA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LYING OVER AND WEST OF ANA IS MAINTAINING A WELL DEFINED
OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS...BUT AS ANA
MOVES INTO THE RIDGE AXIS...IT IS BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS RESTRICTING OUTFLOW IN
THE WESTERN QUADRANT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL SATURDAY...AND WITH OCEAN TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WARM...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM.
SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ANA
WILL REMAIN A DANGEROUS TROPICAL STORM. ON DAY 5...REINTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD RELAX. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 16.9N 156.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 17.8N 157.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 18.9N 159.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 19.6N 160.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 20.1N 161.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 21.0N 164.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 22.6N 166.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 24.2N 168.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[supercane4867]

Just for entertainment

[Macrocane]

With Ana now a hurricane there have been 15 hurricanes in the East Pacific/Cental Pacific basins combined, the most since 1992.

[euro6208]

EURO wins again...

[galaxy401]

You guys are reacting as if Ana was just upgraded to a hurricane. It's been a hurricane for over 6 hours now.

[Kingarabian]

Recon just found 85kts Flight level winds. I'd go with that intensity.

[Kingarabian]

How far do tropical storm winds extend? Do you think the CPHC should assign a tropical storm warning?

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro is out and I'm not sure what to make of it.

00z:

12z:

[AbcdeerHI]

Ana's eye

[Kingarabian]

WTPA25 PHFO 180832
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
0900 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
AND KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE ISLAND. ANA WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT
OF APPROACH TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII TONIGHT...MAKING ITS CLOSEST
POINT OF APPROACH TO THE OTHER ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 157.4W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 80SE 70SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 157.4W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 157.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.8N 158.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.6N 159.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.2N 161.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.6N 162.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 165.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 167.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.5N 168.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 157.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Kingarabian]

WTPA45 PHFO 180903
TCDCP5

HURRICANE ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ANA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT DATA FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT SUPPORTED INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 76 KT IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHILE REDUCED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS RESULTED
IN AN ESTIMATE OF 74 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE NOAA G-IV COMPLETED ITS
FINAL SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON ANA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CPHC IS GRATEFUL FOR THE CRITICAL OBSERVATIONS IN A DATA SPARSE AREA.

INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 310/11 KT...AS ANA IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BUT A RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE DATE LINE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE GENERAL MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY...BUT AS THIS NEW RIDGE
SLIDES EAST OF THE CYCLONE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ON AN INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD TRACK. THE UPDATED
TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE RIGHT
HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST TVCN CONSENSUS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...ANA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

ANA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH MODEST WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANA FROM INTENSIFYING OVER THE ANOMALOUSLY
WATER LOCATED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS OFFERING A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWING THE TRENDS PRESENTED BY SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. THE IVCN
CONSENSUS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE LONGER
RANGES...AS HWRF AND GFDL STRENGTHEN ANA TO A STRONG HURRICANE ON
DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A DECREASE IN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...WHILE OTHER MODELS INDICATE THAT WIND SHEAR WILL
PERSIST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.8N 157.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 18.8N 158.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 19.6N 159.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 20.2N 161.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 20.6N 162.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 21.5N 165.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 23.5N 167.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 25.5N 168.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Kingarabian]

06zGFS slightly to the right as well.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: : Euro 00Z is adopting a NW/NNW track

Yeah that's what it was. I wonder why the sudden change? It definitely has it weaker though. Maybe a shallower Ana would drift NNW?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

For some reason, Ana keeps ending up right of the track lately. Recon sat on the runway for a bit. I wonder if there was any decision about whether to continue missions. Recon is on the way now though.

[Kingarabian]

It's definitely to the right of the CPHC track currently.

Why would they not continue missions?