CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#481 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:48 pm

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION


Location: 20.8N 161.3W
About 150 miles (240 km) SW of Lihue Hawaii
About 220 miles (355 km) W of Honolulu Hawaii
Maximum sustained winds: 70 mph (110 km/h)
Present movement: W or 270 degrees at 8 mph (13 km/h)
Minimum central pressure: 994 MB or 29.36 inches
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#482 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2014 5:37 am

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF ANA IN SPITE
OF MORE THAN 30 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY
CIMSS. U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DEPARTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CPHC THANKS THEM FOR THE CRUCIAL DATA RECEIVED
THROUGH THEIR EFFORTS. FIX AGENCIES CAME IN AT 3.5/55 KT FROM JTWC
AND 4.0/65 KT FROM HFO AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FIX AGENCIES...HEDGED TOWARD WHAT
RECONNAISSANCE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED OFF OF THE PAST MOTION DETERMINED FROM AFTERNOON
RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES AT 0235Z AND
0453Z...THE INITIAL MOTION OF ANA IS SET TOWARD THE DUE WEST WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION...270/08 KT. THIS MOTION WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A DEEP ANTICYCLONE PASSES NORTH OF ANA. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE DEEP ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS TURN IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ANA OVER THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS OR NECKER ISLAND TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PAST PACKAGE
AND TRENDS TOWARD THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANA IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MAY
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE FORECAST ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ENVELOPE.

SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RESILIENT SYSTEM IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT
TERM AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX MONDAY NIGHT...GIVING ANA AN OPPORTUNITY TO REINTENSIFY INTO
A HURRICANE AGAIN AS IT APPROACHES THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY DAY 5 AS ANA
INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING DEEP TROUGH. THE FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND ROUGHLY MATCHES THE TRENDS OF THE CONSENSUS.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 20.7N 162.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 20.9N 163.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 21.6N 165.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 22.7N 166.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 23.6N 166.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 25.8N 168.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 29.1N 168.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 33.0N 166.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#483 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:48 am

Image

Image
The Hurricane Warning is for a runway on the French Frigate Shoals... :D
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#484 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:05 pm

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST MON OCT 20 2014

THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF ANA HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 30
KT CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM. DVORAK FIXES FROM JTWC AND
SAB CAME IN AT 3.5/55 KT...WHILE CPHC REMAINED AT 4.0/65 KT. SINCE
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ANA HAS DEGRADED...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

IT APPEARS THAT ANA HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH ITS PRESENT MOTION BEING 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THIS NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING ANA
OVER THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT NEAR FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS TVCN NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ANA IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANA INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH.

THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
PRESENCE OF ANA FOR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH DURING THE 36 THROUGH 72 HOUR TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO LOWER SHEAR
AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 AS ANA BEGINS
EXPERIENCE MORE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS ALONG CLOSELY
WITH SHIPS BUT REMAINS BELOW THE HIGHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE OF THE
HWRF AND GFDL WHICH APPEAR TO BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 20.9N 164.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 21.4N 165.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 22.3N 166.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 23.3N 167.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 24.5N 168.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 27.5N 168.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 31.1N 166.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 35.8N 161.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#485 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:31 am

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 AM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

AN 0803Z ASCAT PASS MISSED THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF ANA...BUT
SAMPLED SOLID 40 TO 45 KT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OUTSIDE DEEP
CONVECTION. PHFO PROVIDED A DVORAK-DERIVED INTENSITY OF 3.0/45
KT...WHILE JTWC PROVIDED 2.5/35 KT. SAB PROVIDED A BELOW-TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY OF 2.0/30 KT. ANA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY HEALTHY
IN THE FACE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WITH AN EXPOSED LLCC AND
DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED NOW TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THE
ASCAT PASS PROVIDES JUST ENOUGH WEIGHT TO KEEP ANA AT A POSSIBLY
GENEROUS 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

AFTER TRICKING THIS FORECASTER WITH A FEINT TOWARD 305 DEGREES JUST
PRIOR TO THE LAST FORECAST CYCLE...ANA HAS WOBBLED BACK TO AN ALMOST
DUE WESTERLY 275/08 KT MOTION WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN SPITE OF
THIS MOTION...ALMOST ALL DYNAMIC TRACK GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT ANA
WILL BEGIN RECURVING NORTHWESTWARD IMMEDIATELY. CONTINUED MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST MUST BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT HOWEVER...SO THE FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED LEFT BEYOND ALL GUIDANCE
EXCEPT BAMMS. THE FORECAST TRACK THEN REJOINS THE LARGER DYNAMIC
ENVELOPE AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE LEFT AT
ALL TAU FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO KEEP UP WITH SIMILARLY ADJUSTED
ECMWF AND TVCN CONSENSUS TRACKS. ANA IS STILL EXPECTED TO RECURVE
THROUGH DAY 5...EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 48
HOURS...AND ACCELERATE.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH 12 HOURS...THEN STABILIZE AS
SOUTHWEST VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO DECREASE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
STRENGTHEN FROM 36 THROUGH 72 HOURS AS THE DIMINISHED SHEAR ALLOWS
ANA TO BENEFIT FROM ANOMALOUSLY WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. NORTHWEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
RAPIDLY BY 72 HOURS AND THIS...COMBINED WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WILL CAUSE ANA TO BEGIN WEAKENING AGAIN. THESE
FORECAST TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THOSE SEEN IN INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE AMPLITUDES VARY AS EACH MODEL HANDLES THE
SHEAR DIFFERENTLY. ANA WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT 120
HOURS AS IT NEARS 40N.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 20.9N 165.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 21.4N 167.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 22.8N 168.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 24.8N 169.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 27.0N 169.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 30.9N 166.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 34.6N 162.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 39.0N 156.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#486 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 21, 2014 4:30 pm

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF ANA CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED THIS
MORNING...AND HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 18
HOURS OR SO...MAKING ANA LOOK MORE LIKE A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. AS
SUCH...DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LOWER...AND
NOW RANGE FROM 2.0/30 KT TO 2.5/35 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR
THIS ADVISORY KEEPS ANA AS A MINIMAL 35 KT TROPICAL STORM.

OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...ANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW AND MID
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE. ON DAYS 4 AND 5
ANA WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...THEREBY MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT
TERM...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED IN THE LONGER RANGES...AFTER
CONSULTING WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. THE LATEST TRACK
FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ANTICIPATE A RELAXATION OF THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
SHEAR VALUES GREATLY DIMINISHED BY DAY 2. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW ANA TO MAINTAIN THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ANA WILL
BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE SHEAR IN THE SHORT TERM. THE INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO PEAK AT THE TIME EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS...WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER...WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASED ON
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM...AND ON THE GLOBAL MODELS AT
THE LONGER TIME RANGES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 21.2N 165.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 21.9N 166.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 23.6N 168.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 25.6N 168.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 28.0N 168.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 32.0N 165.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 36.0N 160.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1800Z 42.5N 150.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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#487 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:31 pm

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 PM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF ANA REMAINED EXPOSED FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IT HAS RECENTLY CREPT CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH...AND IS NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE JUST SOUTH OF EXPLOSIVELY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5/25 KT TO
2.5/35 KT...WHILE A 2031Z ASCAT PASS DETECTED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30
KT...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...WHICH
TENDS TO HAVE A SLIGHT LOW BIAS AT THESE WIND SPEEDS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35 KT. THE WIND
RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON
DATA FROM THIS WELL-PLACED ASCAT PASS.

ALTHOUGH ANA EXHIBITED AN EASTWARD WOBBLE JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...A LONGER TERM AVERAGE YIELDS 315/08 KT FOR THE INITIAL
MOTION. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW AND MID
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON DAY 3 AS ANA BEGINS TO ROUND THE RIDGE.
ON DAYS 4 AND 5 ANA WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND GET CAUGHT
UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS
NUDGED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS...MOST NOTABLY ON DAYS 2 AND 3...
AS LATEST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
LONGER THAN EARLIER INDICATED. THIS ALSO RESULTED IN A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD SPEED ON DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...AND IS NEAR THE
GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER AT DAYS 4 AND
5.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL RELAXATION
OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...
WITH SHEAR VALUES EASING BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS. THE SHEAR SHOULD
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS AS WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF
ABOUT 29N. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS
THROUGH DAY 3...AND MIRRORS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY OPC
ON DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 21.9N 166.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 22.9N 167.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 24.2N 168.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 25.9N 169.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 27.4N 169.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 30.6N 167.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 38.0N 159.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/0000Z 45.5N 146.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#488 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:58 am

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE LLCC LIES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION...WITH WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRLS
LEAVING LITTLE DOUBT AS TO POSITION AND MOVEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM.
LATEST DVORAK-DERIVED INTENSITIES FROM THE SATELLITE CENTERS ARE
2.5/35 KT FROM PHFO AND 2.0/30 KT FROM JTWC AND SAB. THE OVERALL
SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOWS A SYSTEM UNDERGOING MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN
APPEARANCE FROM THE LAST FORECAST CYCLE...SO WE WILL ASSIGN AN
INITIAL INTENSITY THIS TIME OF 35 KT.

UNLIKE 24 HOURS AGO...WHEN ANA WAS WOBBLING BETWEEN WESTERLY AND
NORTHERLY MOTION...WE NOW SEE A MORE STEADY MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...WITH A 315/08 KT MOTION OVER 12 HOURS
NOTED. ANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN TURN NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF A LOW
AND MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS AS ANA BEGINS TO ROUND THE
RIDGE. AT 96 AND 120 HOURS ANA WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SLIDE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AS
IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGH RECURVATURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE WITHIN THIS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...SPLITTING
THE INCREASING SPREAD BETWEEN UKMET AND TVCN CONSENSUS AT 96 AND 120
HOURS.

WITH MINOR VARIATIONS...INTENSITY GUIDANCE DESCRIBES RELAXED
VERTICAL SHEAR BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...ALLOWING ANA TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TO STRENGTHEN A BIT ALONG ITS
RECURVING TRACK. BEYOND 72 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN AS ANA BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER. THESE
DETRIMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SINCE ANA WILL LIKELY UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...WE WILL USE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
PROVIDED BY OPC FOR THESE TAU...UTILIZING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. INSTEAD
OF DISSIPATING...ANA IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A 50 KT
EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM LOW BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 22.4N 167.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 23.4N 167.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 24.9N 168.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 26.5N 169.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 28.1N 169.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 32.4N 165.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 39.7N 156.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/0600Z 47.2N 142.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#489 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:54 am

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 AM HST WED OCT 22 2014

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE LLCC HAS MOVED BENEATH THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION...AND NEW DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN CUMULUS BANDING SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC...AS SOUTHWEST
VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO EASE. WHILE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ESTIMATED
WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 320/07 KT. ALL THREE SATELLITE
FIX AGENCIES PROVIDED A DVORAK-DERIVED INTENSITY OF 2.5/35 KT. WHILE
AN 0743Z ASCAT PASS MISSED THE CENTER...A SWATH OF SOLID 35 KT WINDS
WERE IDENTIFIED WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. LITTLE CHANGE IS
NOTED IN OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION FOR ANA...SO WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN ASSIGN THIS SYSTEM AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 36
HOURS...THEN TURN NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF A LOW AND MID
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BEYOND 36 HOURS AS ANA BEGINS TO ROUND THE
RIDGE. AFTER 48 HOURS HOURS ANA WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
AND SLIDE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST AS IT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH RECURVATURE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE WITHIN THIS GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...ALMOST MATCHING TVCN CONSENSUS.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DESCRIBE RELAXING VERTICAL SHEAR
THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALLOWING ANA TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SUFFICIENTLY
WARM WATER TO STRENGTHEN A BIT ALONG ITS RECURVING TRACK. BY 72
HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AS ANA BEGINS
TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER. THESE DETRIMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD
QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SINCE ANA
WILL LIKELY UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT 96 AND 120
HOURS...WE WILL USE INTENSITY GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY OPC FOR THESE
TAU. INSTEAD OF DISSIPATING...ANA IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A 45
KT EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST TRACK. OPC RAISES
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANA BECOMING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW AT 120 HOURS...SO SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY BE SHORTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 22.8N 167.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 23.8N 168.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 25.3N 168.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 27.0N 168.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 28.8N 167.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 33.9N 162.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 41.2N 152.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1200Z 48.7N 139.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#490 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:15 pm

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST WED OCT 22 2014

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WAS BRIEFLY EXPOSED EARLY LAST
NIGHT AND HAS NOW BEEN DRAWN BACK TOWARD A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL FIX AGENCIES CAME IN AT 2.5/35 KT...AND THAT IS WHERE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN. THE CENTER MIGRATING BACK NEAR THE
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS LED TO A SLIGHT DEVIATION OF THE
FORWARD MOTION TO A MORE NORTHERLY BEARING...345/08 KT...AND THIS
CHANGE IN MOTION IS ASSUMED TO BE A SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENT.

ANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST THEN WESTERN EDGE OF DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE. DURING THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ALONG THE
FAR RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE HWRF...MAINLY DUE
TO THE DEVIATION IN SHORT TERM MOTION THAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LIKELY
BEGIN THE PROCESS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON SATURDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS TURN
HAS BEEN DELAYED SLIGHTLY...LEAVING ANA A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE
PRIOR FORECAST PACKAGE. BY SUNDAY...ANA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
UNDERGONE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
DEEP TROUGH AND RAPIDLY MOVES TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND WAS
SLOWED IN COORDINATION WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DOWN
TO LESS THAN 15 KT AT 18Z. THIS HAS PROBABLY ALLOWED THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER TO MIGRATE BACK TOWARD THE DEEP CONVECTION. WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE DECLINE...SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS GUIDANCE
AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE CONSENSUS...WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE HWRF AND
GFDL. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SOME
WEAKENING DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE
AS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETED. THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WAS CONDUCTED IN COORDINATION WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 23.8N 167.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 24.9N 167.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 26.2N 168.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 27.1N 169.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 28.1N 169.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 32.1N 166.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 40.0N 153.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1800Z 49.0N 141.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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#491 Postby weathernerdguy » Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:28 pm

This season is this crazy.
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#492 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:24 pm

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 PM HST WED OCT 22 2014

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE OBSCURED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REMAIN AT 2.5/35 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE OBSERVED IN THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE SHEARED SYSTEM...THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT.

ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...335/10 KT. THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A SIMILAR MOTION INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS IT
IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST EDGE OF DEEP HIGH PRESSURE.
ANA WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...CAUSING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. ANA WILL THEN ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE WEEKEND AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BY DAY 5. THE FORECAST TRACK RUNS ALONG
THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND WITH INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTIONS CENTER...THE
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

ANA HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY TODAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
SHIFTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE REMAINS
UNDER 15 KT ACCORDING TO A 00Z CIMSS ANALYSIS AND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AS ANA TRAVELS BETWEEN A RIDGE ALOFT TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK LOW ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOMALOUSLY WARM OCEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
FROM THE CURRENT 28.5C TO 26.5C...ACCORDING A RECENT NASA SPORT
ANALYSIS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION. SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ON
DAYS 4 AND 5 AS ANA COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS
LIKELY ABSORBED BY A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE TREND OF SHIPS AND THE CONSENSUS BUT IS BEING HELD SLIGHTLY
LOWER DUE TO WHAT IS DEEMED AS EXCESSIVE CONTRIBUTIONS BY THE HWRF
AND GFDL. THE DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WAS
CONDUCTED IN COORDINATION WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 24.8N 167.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 25.8N 168.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 26.9N 169.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 170.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 29.2N 169.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 33.1N 165.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 42.6N 149.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/0000Z 49.7N 139.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#493 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:49 am

Ana during daylight hours.
Image
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#494 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:27 am

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST WED OCT 22 2014

SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THE LLCC LIKELY LIES JUST BENEATH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SHIELD OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE OVERALL
PRESENTATION IS UNCHANGED FROM LAST TIME...NAMELY THAT OF A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM UNDERGOING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FLANKING LINE OF CB FORMING ALONG A RAIN BAND EAST OF
CENTER...PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. THE LATEST DVORAK-DERIVED INTENSITY FROM ALL
THREE SATELLITE FIX CENTERS IS 2.5/35 KT...SO THAT WILL BE THE
ASSIGNED INITIAL INTENSITY THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE
PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES SINCE ANA BEGAN MOVING FIRMLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. INITIAL MOTION IS 325/09 KT...WITH A SLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE
LEFT OF PREVIOUS MOTION NOTED WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. ANA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN NORTHWARD BY 48
HOURS...AS IT IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST EDGE OF DEEP
HIGH PRESSURE. ANA WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY 48 HOURS...CAUSING A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ANA WILL THEN ACCELERATE
TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THROUGH 96
AND 120 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES WITHIN A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN BEGINS TO DEVIATE LEFT
FROM CONSENSUS AND FAVOR ECMWF AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.

OUR INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ANA TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
120 HOURS...INITIALLY AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN
AS A TRANSITIONING EXTRATROPICAL LOW AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS...AN
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WOULD ALLOW ANA TO BENEFIT FROM ANOMALOUSLY WARM
OCEAN WATER NEAR AND SOUTH OF 30N. BY 72 HOURS...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DECREASING RAPIDLY ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...CAPPING ANA AT 50 KT THROUGH 96 HOURS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...DEEP TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH IT...BAROCLINICALLY STRENGTHENING ANA...AS A
TRANSITIONING EXTRATROPICAL LOW...TO 55 KT. THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER CONTRIBUTED TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE AT 72...96 AND 120
HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 25.5N 168.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 26.6N 169.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 28.3N 169.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 30.0N 169.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 31.4N 167.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 35.8N 161.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 44.3N 146.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/0600Z 51.6N 136.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#495 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:42 pm

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 AM HST THU OCT 23 2014

ANA CONTINUES TO HAVE A RATHER MEDIOCRE OVERALL SATELLITE
PRESENTATION THIS MORNING...WITH AN LLCC LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE
OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. THE CDO PATTERN WHICH HAS BEEN
PROMINENT FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS IS DEVOLVING INTO A SINGLE LONG
CYCLONICALLY-WRAPPED BANDING PATTERN. THE LATEST DVORAK-DERIVED
INTENSITY FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES IS 2.5/35 KT...BUT
AN 0903Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SOLID SWATH OF 45 KT WITHIN A RATHER
WELL-SAMPLED NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ONE OR TWO 50 KT FLAGS WERE NOTED
AS WELL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE OVERALL MEDIOCRE PRESENTATION...WE WILL
INCREASE THE INITIAL INTENSITY ONLY TO 45 KT.

THE 0903Z ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED THAT ANA HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE
PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS ALONG ITS FORECASTED NORTHWEST HEADING...AND
INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 340/12 KT. ANA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWEST THROUGH 12 HOURS...THEN NORTHWARD BY 24 HOURS...AS IT IS
STEERED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF DEEP HIGH PRESSURE. ANA WILL BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT 36 AND
48 HOURS...CAUSING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ANA WILL THEN ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT
UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THROUGH 72 AND 96 HOURS. GUIDANCE
FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS THAT ANA WILL BECOME ABSORBED
BY A LARGER MID-LATITUDE LOW AT 120 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES WITHIN A TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS
ALONG THIS TRACK HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AT ALL TAU TO ACCOUNT FOR FASTER
INITIAL MOTION...AND FOR 72...96 AND 120 POSITIONS PROVIDED BY THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

OUR INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ANA TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN...INITIALLY AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN
AS A TRANSITIONING EXTRATROPICAL LOW BEYOND 48 HOURS. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 36
HOURS...AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ANA TO BENEFIT FROM
ANOMALOUSLY WARM OCEAN WATER NEAR AND SOUTH OF 30N. BEYOND 48
HOURS...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN DECREASING RAPIDLY ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...CAPPING ANA AT 55 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS. AS ANA
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...DEEP TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL BEGIN MERGING WITH IT...BAROCLINICALLY SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM
AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND IS ABSORBED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 26.6N 168.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 28.3N 169.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 30.7N 169.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 32.6N 167.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 34.2N 165.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 39.1N 155.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1200Z 48.2N 140.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#496 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:43 pm

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION


Location: 27.1N 169.7W
About 135 miles (215 km) NNE of MARO REEF
About 305 miles (495 km) NW of FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph (85 km/h)
Present movement: NNW or 330 degrees at 8 mph (13 km/h)
Minimum central pressure: 999 MB or 29.50 inches



TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST THU OCT 23 2014

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ANA HAS EVOLVED FROM A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST TO A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS...
WHILE A CLEAR CONVECTION-FREE CENTER IS NOTED IN MOST RECENT
INFRARED IMAGES. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS
2.5/35 KT...BUT RECENT OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT ANA IS STRONGER. AS AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS
INDICATED WINDS NEAR 50 KT...AND RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES...
INCLUDING A 1751Z WINDSAT IMAGE AND A 1925Z SSMIS IMAGE...INDICATE A
STRUCTURE CONSISTENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE IS THEREFORE SET AT 45 KT.

ANA IS MOVING ON A TRAJECTORY THAT IS TO THE LEFT AND SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANA BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE EAST. A RAPID ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS ANA GETS
CAUGHT UP IN STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 48 HOURS...WITH ANA BECOMING AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 72 HOURS...SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA BY DAY 4. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE SUPPLIED BY
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. THE UPDATED FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS IN THE SHORT TERM...AND CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WHILE ANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING AS A
TROPICAL LOW IN THE SHORT TERM. AS ANA TRANSITIONS TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW...BAROCLINIC PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW ANA
TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH...WITH WIND RADII EXPANDING RATHER
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THIS OCCURS...PER OPC GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 27.1N 169.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 28.3N 170.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 30.4N 169.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 33.5N 167.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 37.2N 162.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 45.0N 148.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#497 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:58 am

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST THU OCT 23 2014

RELATIVELY WEAK NORTH TO NORTH NORTHWEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ESTIMATES CONTINUES IN
THE VICINITY OF ANA. THE MOST RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT ANA IS ENTRAINING SOME DRY AIR INTO ITS NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. AS A RESULT OF THIS WEAK SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS PULSING DEEP CONVECTION
MAINLY ALONG ITS SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS IS EVIDENT IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY OBTAINED FROM THE FNMOC/NRL WEB SITES...FOR
EXAMPLE THE 0303Z AMSU AND 0328Z SSMS IMAGERY. THE MOST RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AGAIN RANGE FROM
2.0/30 KT TO 2.5/35 KT. HOWEVER...OTHER DATA SOURCES RECEIVED
EARLIER TODAY SUGGESTED THESE ESTIMATES MAY BE TOO LOW. THE MOST
RECENT OBJECTIVELY-BASED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS
SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF 40 TO 42 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN 45 KT UNTIL WE HAVE ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE THAT
ANA HAS WEAKENED.

THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF FORWARD MOTION FOR ANA APPEAR TO SHOW THE
SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST. AS
A RESULT...THE LATEST FORWARD MOTION IS 330/07 KT. THERE HAVE BEEN
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK FOR ANA. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE FROM THE DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS REMAINS RATHER TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS. THESE MODELS ARE RESPONDING TO A
FLATTENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF ANA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS IN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS THIS
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...ANA WILL LIKELY BE CARRIED RAPIDLY
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY DEEP MID-LATITUDE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST SHOWS ANA/S FORWARD MOTION HAS BEEN
REDUCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO CONFORM TO THE
LATEST CONSENSUS...THAT IS IVCN...GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT THE 72 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION...INTENSITY AND RADII ARE PER GUIDANCE FROM THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE...EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WITH ANA
COMPLETING THE TRANSITION BY DAY 3. AFTER THAT...FORMER ANA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOMING ABSORBED BY A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW
APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA BY DAY 4. NOTE THAT THE GFS MODEL
MAINTAINS ANA AS A SEPARATE ENTITY...BUT WE WILL WAIT FOR
ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE 96 HOUR
FORECAST.

EVEN THOUGH ANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER
OCEAN WATERS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE
FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE SHORT-TERM. AS
ANA TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...BAROCLINIC PROCESSES ARE
EXPECTED TO ALLOW ANA TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...WITH WIND RADII
EXPANDING RAPIDLY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AS THE
LATITUDE OF THE SYSTEM INCREASES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 27.9N 170.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 29.4N 169.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 31.8N 167.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 35.0N 163.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 38.9N 157.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 46.1N 143.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#498 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 24, 2014 8:50 am

What is the longest lasting CPAC storm? Is Ana getting close?
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Tropical Storm

#499 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 24, 2014 10:16 am

Seems like lack of attention since this cleared hawaii...I expected more since CPAC storms are kinda rare... and this far north...
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#500 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 24, 2014 2:52 pm

Image

becoming better organized as it moves away from Hawaii
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