CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

If the track is on the left edge of the cone, then the recurve could be the worst case scenario. But on the right edge, cooler waters would likely weaken it. So much uncertainty.

Is there Recon planned for 2C?

They'll wait until it's a TS first and if the conditions remain conducive.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS slightly weaker minimal TS; same track to the East.

[Kingarabian]

Not much dry air in front of it.

[AFWeather]

One frustrating item of note is that the South Shore radar has been down for some time... I can't seem to find the latest status update on it either. So one less tool as Ana approaches.

[AFWeather]

Found it. We're at the 3 week point now, so I would expect we'll be without this for Ana.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1205 PM HST TUE SEP 23 2014

...EXTENDED OUTAGE OF THE SOUTH HAWAII WEATHER RADAR...

THE SOUTH HAWAII WSR-88D /WEATHER SURVEILLANCE RADAR
88-DOPPLER/...LOCATED NEAR NAALEHU ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 29...AND LASTING ABOUT 4
TO 6 WEEKS.

DURING THIS PERIOD...THE TOWER STRUCTURE THAT SUPPORTS THE RADAR
WILL BE REPLACED DUE TO EXTENSIVE CORROSION. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE
INCONVENIENCE. AS ALWAYS...WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO CONTACT US IF YOU SEE
DANGEROUS WEATHER DEVELOPING OR IN PROGRESS.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF has an intense hurricane heading due west

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track upgrades to TS Ana.

02C ANA 141014 0000 12.7N 142.3W CPAC 35 1005

[Alyono]

really wish Ana was NOT used. If this causes massive Hawaii damage, people will wonder why the first Atlantic storm will be named Ana. People do not know about the different basins names.

In my opinion, if future Ana devastates Hawaii, the name should not be used in the Atlantic, to avoid any confusion (the whole point of retiring names to begin with)

[Kingarabian]

GFDL has a strong hurricane going NNW safely missing the islands.

[AFWeather]

New track is slower in the latter half of the period and ever so slightly to the right of the previous track.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
0300 UTC TUE OCT 14 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 142.5W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 10NE 10SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 10SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 142.5W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 142.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.3N 143.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.9N 144.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.2N 145.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.5N 146.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.2N 148.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 16.5N 150.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 152.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 142.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION


Location: 12.9N 142.5W
About 955 miles (1540 km) ESE of Hilo Hawaii
About 1170 miles (1880 km) ESE of Honolulu Hawaii
Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph (65 km/h)
Present movement: NW or 315 degrees at 7 mph (11 km/h)
Minimum central pressure: 1005 MB or 29.68 inches

[Kingarabian]

Shift to the East

[Yellow Evan]

Note the declaimer, I'm firmly in the camp it will miss Hawaii for now. The GFDL and HWRF call for big time intensification, which appears likely, and move it NW rather than WNW. Hawaii should get some effects, but the core seems like it will stay offshore.

[Kingarabian]

Note the declaimer, I'm firmly in the camp it will miss Hawaii for now. The GFDL and HWRF call for big time intensification, which appears likely, and move it NW rather than WNW. Hawaii should get some effects, but the core seems like it will stay offshore.

Sure hope so. Would love some harmless EPAC ACE units. But for those HWRF and GFDL scenarios to verify, Ana needs to get going. Plus 27C and 28C waters along with 15kt of shear are not that great for RI.

[Kingarabian]

Unimpressive. Maybe the Euro is right?

[Yellow Evan]

Note the declaimer, I'm firmly in the camp it will miss Hawaii for now. The GFDL and HWRF call for big time intensification, which appears likely, and move it NW rather than WNW. Hawaii should get some effects, but the core seems like it will stay offshore.

Sure hope so. Would love some harmless EPAC ACE units. But for those HWRF and GFDL scenarios to verify, Ana needs to get going. Plus 27C and 28C waters along with 15kt of shear are not that great for RI.

It has an advantage that most EDR hurricanes don't in that it has 4-5 days to intensify.

[Kingarabian]

Note the declaimer, I'm firmly in the camp it will miss Hawaii for now. The GFDL and HWRF call for big time intensification, which appears likely, and move it NW rather than WNW. Hawaii should get some effects, but the core seems like it will stay offshore.

Sure hope so. Would love some harmless EPAC ACE units. But for those HWRF and GFDL scenarios to verify, Ana needs to get going. Plus 27C and 28C waters along with 15kt of shear are not that great for RI.

It has an advantage that most EDR hurricanes don't in that it has 4-5 days to intensify.

Yeah time is on its side.

Tough to say for sure where it will go. The CPHC has this particular track because the Euro's scenario that Ana will be too weak and go south (although it has begun to slowly shift to the East) does not make sense because of the favorable conditions. I think they're ignoring the HWRF for now.

[Yellow Evan]

Tough to say for sure where it will go. The CPHC has this particular track because the Euro's scenario that Ana will be too weak and go south (although it has begun to slowly shift to the East) does not make sense because of the favorable conditions. I think they're ignoring the HWRF for now.

I would not be ignoring the HWRF/GFDL. They both have done great this season. All in all, right now, most signs point to this staying offshore Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

Tough to say for sure where it will go. The CPHC has this particular track because the Euro's scenario that Ana will be too weak and go south (although it has begun to slowly shift to the East) does not make sense because of the favorable conditions. I think they're ignoring the HWRF for now.

I would not be ignoring the HWRF/GFDL. They both have done great this season. All in all, right now, most signs point to this staying offshore Hawaii.

I just don't understand how a MH would be moving that much to the west and not feel that trough. If there were to be a MH, the GFDL track would be the most likely IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Tough to say for sure where it will go. The CPHC has this particular track because the Euro's scenario that Ana will be too weak and go south (although it has begun to slowly shift to the East) does not make sense because of the favorable conditions. I think they're ignoring the HWRF for now.

I would not be ignoring the HWRF/GFDL. They both have done great this season. All in all, right now, most signs point to this staying offshore Hawaii.

I just don't understand how a MH would be moving that much to the west and not feel that trough. If there were to be a MH, the GFDL track would be the most likely IMO.

Oh, if it's strong it'll feel the trough. 0z GFS still keeps this very close to Hawaii.