CPAC: ANA - Post-Tropical

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#441 Postby AbcdeerHI » Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:04 am

spiral wrote:Image


ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2014 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 19:51:32 N Lon : 159:09:38 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 982.8mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#





2014OCT18 213000 4.0 988.0 65.0 4.0 4.4 4.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -76.66 -76.74 UNIFRM N/A 4.3 19.35 158.96 FCST GOES15 35.4
2014OCT18 220000 4.1 986.4 67.4 4.1 4.4 4.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -76.66 -77.15 UNIFRM N/A 4.3 19.39 159.03 FCST GOES15 35.5
2014OCT18 223000 4.2 984.7 69.8 4.2 4.4 4.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -75.56 -76.71 UNIFRM N/A 4.3 19.44 159.09 FCST GOES15 35.6
2014OCT18 230000 4.2 984.7 69.8 4.2 4.4 4.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -75.06 -75.10 UNIFRM N/A 4.3 19.48 159.15 FCST GOES15 35.7
2014OCT18 233000 4.3 983.0 72.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -72.06 -73.09 UNIFRM N/A 4.3 19.53 159.21 FCST GOES15 35.8
2014OCT19 000000 4.3 982.9 72.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -68.86 -71.04 UNIFRM N/A 4.3 19.57 159.27 FCST GOES15 35.8
2014OCT19 003000 4.3 982.9 72.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -66.36 -69.45 UNIFRM N/A 4.3 19.61 159.33 FCST GOES15 35.9
2014OCT19 010000 4.3 982.9 72.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -65.46 -68.10 UNIFRM N/A 4.3 19.65 159.39 FCST GOES15 36.0
2014OCT19 013000 4.3 982.9 72.2 4.3 4.2 4.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -71.66 -67.93 UNIFRM N/A 4.3 19.69 159.44 FCST GOES15 36.1
2014OCT19 020000 4.3 982.9 72.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF -75.06 -67.58 UNIFRM N/A 4.3 19.73 159.50 FCST GOES15 36.1
2014OCT19 023000 4.3 982.8 72.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF -74.56 -69.61 UNIFRM N/A 4.3 19.86 159.16 FCST GOES15 35.9


SAB is much more in line with what recon has found over the past several hours (most recent pass is around 992mb. Ill post the vortex message when it becomes available). CIMSS is a little too strong.

2014OCT18 210000 3.5 994.7 55.0 3.5 3.7 3.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -76.66 -75.75 UNIFRM N/A 6.1 19.30 158.90 FCST GOES15 35.3
2014OCT18 213000 3.6 993.4 57.0 3.6 3.8 3.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -76.06 -76.11 UNIFRM N/A 6.1 19.20 158.81 SPRL GOES15 35.2
2014OCT18 220000 3.6 993.5 57.0 3.6 3.8 3.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -76.66 -76.54 UNIFRM N/A 1.0 19.14 158.87 SPRL GOES15 35.2
2014OCT18 223000 3.7 992.1 59.0 3.7 3.8 3.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -74.56 -76.71 UNIFRM N/A 1.0 19.19 159.04 SPRL GOES15 35.4
2014OCT18 230000 3.7 992.2 59.0 3.7 3.8 3.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -74.06 -75.20 EMBC N/A 1.0 19.03 158.99 SPRL GOES15 35.2
2014OCT18 233000 3.7 992.2 59.0 3.7 3.8 3.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -71.66 -73.26 UNIFRM N/A 1.0 19.08 159.05 SPRL GOES15 35.3
2014OCT19 000000 3.7 992.0 59.0 3.7 3.8 3.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -68.86 -71.04 UNIFRM N/A 1.0 19.57 159.27 FCST GOES15 35.8
2014OCT19 003000 3.7 991.9 59.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -66.36 -69.45 UNIFRM N/A 1.0 19.61 159.33 FCST GOES15 35.9
2014OCT19 010000 3.7 991.9 59.0 3.7 3.7 3.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -65.46 -68.10 UNIFRM N/A 1.0 19.65 159.39 FCST GOES15 36.0
2014OCT19 013000 3.7 991.9 59.0 3.7 3.7 3.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -71.66 -67.93 UNIFRM N/A 1.0 19.69 159.44 FCST GOES15 36.1
2014OCT19 020000 3.7 991.9 59.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -75.06 -67.58 UNIFRM N/A 1.0 19.73 159.50 FCST GOES15 36.1
2014OCT19 023000 3.7 991.9 59.0 3.6 3.5 3.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF -73.56 -65.89 UNIFRM N/A 1.0 19.77 159.55 FCST GOES15 36.2
2014OCT19 030000 3.7 991.8 59.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF -72.56 -69.84 UNIFRM N/A 14.3 19.90 159.20 FCST GOES15 36.0
2014OCT19 033000 3.7 991.8 59.0 3.6 3.7 3.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF -78.26 -70.83 UNIFRM N/A 14.3 19.94 159.24 FCST GOES15 36.1
2014OCT19 040000 3.7 991.8 59.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF -77.66 -71.72 UNIFRM N/A 14.3 19.97 159.28 FCST GOES15 36.1
2014OCT19 043000 3.7 991.8 59.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF -76.66 -73.03 UNIFRM N/A 14.3 19.96 159.17 SPRL GOES15 36.0

added:

Last pass from mission #7

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 5:12Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2014
Storm Name: Ana (flight in the North Central Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 23
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 4:39:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°00'N 159°13'W (20.N 159.2167W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,033m (9,951ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NNE (12°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 84° at 59kts (From the E at ~ 67.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (8°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.30 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) which was observed 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the NE (52°) from the flight level center at 5:01:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 325° at 5kts (From the NW at 6mph)
Last edited by AbcdeerHI on Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are not official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are solely the opinions of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to Central Pacific Hurricane Center or National Hurricane Center products.

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#442 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:11 am

Most recent pass was 988.

Edit: Guess they adjusted it to 992. But this was the case for the previous advisory. CPHC ignored the VDM data and went with the raw data. We'll see.
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#443 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:21 am

Latest recon fix was to the right of the CPHC fix at 5:00 advisory.
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#444 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:22 am

CPHC goes with 987mb in the intermediate advisory:

Location: 20.0N 159.1W
About 135 miles (220 km) S of Lihue Hawaii
About 120 miles (195 km) SW of Honolulu Hawaii
Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph (130 km/h)
Present movement: NW or 320 degrees at 8 mph (13 km/h)
Minimum central pressure: 987 MB or 29.15 inches



Hurricane Category: 1
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#445 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:32 am

Ana is pretty weird. It was struggling from non existent shear and now it's holding its own against 30kts of shear.
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#446 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 1:45 am

Image

Very fortunate this behemoth missed us (although Kauai is not out of the woods just yet). I just wonder how long can the Hawaiian Island's luck hold?
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Hurricane

#447 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:10 am

Posting the image here:

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#448 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:14 am

It may be wobbling too, but the overall movement is like the CPHC says when they say:



HURRICANE ANA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1000 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...10 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE ANA STILL MOVING NORTHWEST AND CONTINUING TO APPROACH
NIIHAU AND KAUAI...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 159.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD



An actual update to the track would have been nice though. Have to wait another hour until the full advisory to see what they think. But it is definitely heading very right of the track. It will be up to wobbles to see how close it gets to Kauai. It could potentially over or just next to Niihau.
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#449 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:24 am

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Re:

#450 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:24 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:It may be wobbling too, but the overall movement is like the CPHC says when they say:



HURRICANE ANA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1000 PM HST SAT OCT 18 2014

...10 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE ANA STILL MOVING NORTHWEST AND CONTINUING TO APPROACH
NIIHAU AND KAUAI...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 159.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD



An actual update to the track would have been nice though. Have to wait another hour until the full advisory to see what they think. But it is definitely heading very right of the track. It will be up to wobbles to see how close it gets to Kauai. It could potentially over or just next to Niihau.


Agreed.

I think a Hurricane watch should be placed just in case those wobbles continue. Maybe even a Tropical Storm warning for Oahu since Ana has slowed considerably and Oahu is very close to the TS wind field radius.
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#451 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:33 am

There should definitely be a hurricane watch for Kauai County, but they really need a hurricane warning at this point. It meets the criteria:

"Hurricane Warning:
An announcement that sustained winds of 64 knots (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or higher are expected somewhere within the specified area in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. The warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force."

From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

They don't separate between Niihau and Kauai (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints.php) and Niihau should have a hurricane warning.
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#452 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:35 am

That is not to say that the island of Kauai itself might not possibly see sustained hurricane force winds, but it is obviously much more likely on Niihau given the current movement.

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Re:

#453 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:41 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:There should definitely be a hurricane watch for Kauai County, but they really need a hurricane warning at this point. It meets the criteria:

"Hurricane Warning:
An announcement that sustained winds of 64 knots (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or higher are expected somewhere within the specified area in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. The warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force."

From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

They don't separate between Niihau and Kauai (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints.php) and Niihau should have a hurricane warning.


Niiahu is considered as the island of Kauai. The same as Molokai and the islands around it belong to the Island of Maui.

But yeah, but this is the CPHC were talking about. They shouldve mentioned some sort of possibility yesterday when the Euro shifted to the right. I dont mean to bash or criticize, but did they not learn from Iniki?? It wouldnt hurt to at least mention that a shift in track may happen. The NHC does it all the time in full detail. Ah well.
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#454 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:42 am

WTPA25 PHFO 190833
TCMCP5

HURRICANE ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
0900 UTC SUN OCT 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 159.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 159.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 159.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.7N 160.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.0N 161.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.5N 163.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.3N 165.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 167.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 169.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.5N 169.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 159.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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#455 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:49 am

They only give a cumulative 4% chance of Niihau seeing 50 knot winds. I think they needed a hurricane watch for sure, and really needed a warning in my opinion, but since that would include Kauai too, which would be very unlikely in my opinion to see sustained hurricane force winds, I guess they decided not to. I think Niihau has a much, much greater chance of 50 knot winds.

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Re:

#456 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:51 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:They only give a cumulative 4% chance of Niihau seeing 50 knot winds. I think they needed a hurricane watch for sure, and really needed a warning in my opinion, but since that would include Kauai too, which would be very unlikely in my opinion to see sustained hurricane force winds, I guess they decided not to. I think Niihau has a much, much greater chance of 50 knot winds.

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Maybe they will eventually. I dont think they have a very good handle on that High right now.

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#457 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:58 am

Iceman56 from the CPHC is on!

Enlighten us, please!
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Re: CPAC: ANA - Hurricane

#458 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 3:59 am

It better turn soon. The yellow line is 45 nautical miles to the NE of the next forecast point which represents the 50 knot wind field according to the CPHC. The CPHC gives a cumulative 4% chance that those winds will reach Niihue.

Edit: That's the 11pm HST track too, which Ana is already north of.

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#459 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 19, 2014 4:03 am

The 10:00 pm update was @ 320. 11:00 pm update has 315. I personally don't see much of a turn to the left @ 315.
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#460 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Oct 19, 2014 4:12 am

I'm not sure what kind of movement they are going by. The twelve hour movement from 11am HST to 11pm HST would be 330 degrees if they had the 11am HST position correct. I didn't see radar then, but it seems like they were likely off.

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