EPAC: TRUDY - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2542
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

EPAC: TRUDY - Remnants

#1 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:09 am

EP, 92, 2014101412, , BEST, 0, 110N, 910W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112139
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:41 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20379
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#3 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:25 am

This should be a real interesting one for those in the GOM as it looks like it has a decent chance of crossing over into the BOC with good model support for that. Latest GFS run actually has it crossed over by day 4.

Luis, is this one of those times we should open up an "EPAC:Invest 92E Model Runs" thread so we can posted model runs due to the possible GOM threat with this invest?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112139
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:20 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 14 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
Guatemala. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for continued development of this system during the next several
days while the low moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Blake
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20379
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#5 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:57 pm

12Z BAMs:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112139
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 14, 2014 1:26 pm

18z Best Track:

EP, 92, 2014101418, , BEST, 0, 112N, 919W, 20, 1008, DB
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20379
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#7 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 14, 2014 1:28 pm

12Z Euro crosses it over into the BOC by day 5, from the SW. Model consensus is growing on this crossover event. Big question is what does it do once in the BOC?
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8580
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#8 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 14, 2014 1:37 pm

I think the Euro was showing it retrograding back into South America. :uarrow:
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20379
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re:

#9 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 14, 2014 1:52 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I think the Euro was showing it retrograding back into South America. :uarrow:


12Z Euro has it heading ENE over the South-central Gulf just north of the Yucatan. Looks like a large system, maybe subtropical?

At 216 hours below below moving ENE, then it moves E then ESE towards the Eastern Yucatan area / NW GOM at 240 hours but very long-range and will likely change. Not sure I buy into that.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 730
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Miami, Fla.
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#10 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:38 pm

Is there any cold fronts coming down that would cause this to really take off ENE through the straights and totally miss Florida/ I can't recall the name but a few years back there was one that became a cat 1 and got DR & PR moving from west to east verses the norm east to west.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8580
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#11 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:40 pm

All I know is that waters in the Caribbean are pretty toasty if it were to take off ENE.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6018
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#12 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:43 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Is there any cold fronts coming down that would cause this to really take off ENE through the straights and totally miss Florida/ I can't recall the name but a few years back there was one that became a cat 1 and got DR & PR moving from west to east verses the norm east to west.


The AO and NAO currently in a negative phase, along with positive PNA, deep troughing across the Eastern CONUS is anticipated in the next 7-10 days. I would probably suspect that strong cool front will be deep into the SE U.S. and to the GOM by next week this time. I am thinking what ever becomes of anything down in the BOC/Southern GOM will be frontal in nature. Could be wrong, just my educated guess. We shall see if anything materializes down there.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2018 Meteorological Summer Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 730
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Miami, Fla.
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#13 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:49 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Is there any cold fronts coming down that would cause this to really take off ENE through the straights and totally miss Florida/ I can't recall the name but a few years back there was one that became a cat 1 and got DR & PR moving from west to east verses the norm east to west.


The AO and NAO currently in a negative phase, along with positive PNA, deep troughing across the Eastern CONUS is anticipated in the next 7-10 days. I would probably suspect that strong cool front will be deep into the SE U.S. and to the GOM by next week this time. I am thinking what ever becomes of anything down in the BOC/Southern GOM will be frontal in nature. Could be wrong, just my educated guess. We shall see if anything materializes down there.


So a possible large area of stretched out rain and some wind.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6018
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#14 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:53 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Is there any cold fronts coming down that would cause this to really take off ENE through the straights and totally miss Florida/ I can't recall the name but a few years back there was one that became a cat 1 and got DR & PR moving from west to east verses the norm east to west.


The AO and NAO currently in a negative phase, along with positive PNA, deep troughing across the Eastern CONUS is anticipated in the next 7-10 days. I would probably suspect that strong cool front will be deep into the SE U.S. and to the GOM by next week this time. I am thinking what ever becomes of anything down in the BOC/Southern GOM will be frontal in nature. Could be wrong, just my educated guess. We shall see if anything materializes down there.


So a possible large area of stretched out rain and some wind.



That's what I am possibly thinking could be the scenario yes.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2018 Meteorological Summer Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20379
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#15 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:56 pm

12Z UKMET supports crossover too and shows a 1007MB low in the SE BOC at 144 hours:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20379
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#16 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:15 pm

Here is what the 12Z Euro shows at 192 hours showing a 1002MB system, maybe frontal in nature, can't tell. It doesn't seem conditions will be ideal in the GOM, so both the GFS and ECMWF show large, spread out systems. Of course, first we need the system to cross over first which is not an easy task for systems crossing over from the EPAC over that part of Mexico.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20379
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#17 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 14, 2014 4:33 pm

Latest saved vis loop shows our invest (which could crossover into the BOC this weekend) coming together:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10536
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re:

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:10 pm

Looks promising, but if it does not deepen quickly, could end our hurricane streak.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20379
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#19 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:24 pm

Looks like the 18Z GFS has another crossover run with the system moving slowly NE in the BOC through 168 hours getting down to 1002MB.

Looks like a sheared system, maybe even frontal in nature by 192 hours not moving much.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112139
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:46 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 14 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of
Guatemala are showing signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by
late this week. The low is forecast to move slowly northwestward
toward the coast of southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest