EPAC: TRUDY - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Steve820
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 180
Age: 18
Joined: Sat May 17, 2014 8:04 pm
Location: Southern California

#61 Postby Steve820 » Wed Oct 15, 2014 7:32 pm

So this could enter the BOC? Looks like this invest might only have a small window to develop before striking Mexico, but I'm certain we'll see something from this. If it's Trudy it'll most likely break the extreme record-breaking hurricane streak we've had in this basin and peak as a TS.
0 likes   
Hurricanes are an amazing natural phenomena. While many are spiraling pits of evil that kill people or cause devastation, some are tame and stay clear of land.

I wish for you to :Bcool:

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2185
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re:

#62 Postby chaser1 » Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:00 pm

gatorcane wrote:It looks like the GFS is splitting invest 92E into two with one area moving more north over Mexico and into the BOC and the other moving more WNW just south of the southern coast of Mexico.

The 18Z GFS is shows the low crossing over into the BOC within the next 48 hours now. Looking at the SAT imagery, it does appear that the right part of 92E is starting to move slowly NW toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec where it will try to cross over. The SW part of the blob of convection is moving more W or WNW.

Image


Nice "pick-up" Gatorcane; looks pretty reasonable and I see to clearly see that NE segment appearing to be pulling northward. If the energy from this system is to be already in the BOC by 48 hrs., than time is getting really short for this to technically qualify for an actual "cross-over" system. If it reaches only depression status on the Pacific side, then no doubt enough weakening will occur prior to regeneration as a seperate entity. Should enough deepening occur that we have a pretty solid, and decent sized T.S. make landfall from the south, then I can see perhaps enough of an identity of circulation might make it into the BOC to clearly qualify as an actual cross-over storm.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5636
Age: 38
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#63 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:19 pm

This looks like a 2 low scenario with 1 heading west and the other ending up in the BOC so IMO we should see development from the northeastern lobe in 60 to 72hrs but track is the most important thing with this as a few of the models eject it NE into Florida and a higher percentage of the models have a stall or even a backtrack into the southern BOC so could be an interesting system

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5636
Age: 38
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#64 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:52 pm

The 0zGFS show part of this in the BOC at 48hrs and at about 180hrs starts to move this ENE and at 216 is ejecting possibly towards Florida. with that 500MB pattern modeled on the GFS it would be a Florida impact but its several days away and the pattern is unpredictable with this one

PS: The 0zGFS has this landfalling between Tampa and Ft Myers between 240 and 252hrs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10524
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#65 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:55 am

Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized in
association with a trough of low pressure that extends from the
Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward for several hundred miles.
Environmental conditions remain favorable for development of a
tropical cyclone somewhere within this area over the next couple of
days, and if one were to form it would likely move northward or
northwestward toward the coast of Mexico. Regardless of whether or
not development occurs, heavy rains are likely along portions of the
Pacific coast of Mexico from the Gulf of Tehuantepec westward over
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
0 likes   

Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2011
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#66 Postby Steve H. » Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:24 am

Off topic here slightly, but early morning visible sat imagery seems to showing some development beginning in the Extreme SW BOC.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112117
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#67 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:28 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure extending from the Gulf of Tehuantepec
southwestward for several hundred miles is producing a large area of
cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although this system is currently
disorganized, there is potential for slow development over the next
few days as it moves slowly northward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Avila
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 730
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Miami, Fla.
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#68 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Oct 16, 2014 7:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure extending from the Gulf of Tehuantepec
southwestward for several hundred miles is producing a large area of
cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although this system is currently
disorganized, there is potential for slow development over the next
few days as it moves slowly northward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

I was one of the many that felt we would get something in the BOC, now I am starting to wonder.

Forecaster Avila
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3083
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#69 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:37 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
cycloneye wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure extending from the Gulf of Tehuantepec
southwestward for several hundred miles is producing a large area of
cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although this system is currently
disorganized, there is potential for slow development over the next
few days as it moves slowly northward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

I was one of the many that felt we would get something in the BOC, now I am starting to wonder.

Forecaster Avila
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3083
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#70 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:40 pm

still may move into boc outlook say may move north if happen wont be untill next week
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112117
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#71 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2014 7:01 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Concentrated showers and thunderstorms have developed in association
with an area of low pressure centered about 150 miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for
further development and a tropical depression may form later today,
as the system moves slowly north or northwestward. If a tropical
cyclone does develop, tropical storm watches or warnings may be
necessary for a portion of the southern Mexico coast. Heavy
rainfall and localized flooding associated with this system could
produce flash flooding and mudslides in portions of southern Mexico,
especially near areas of elevated terrain during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours..high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Landsea
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10524
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#72 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 17, 2014 8:02 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922014 10/17/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 37 45 51 55 55 53 51 53 54
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 37 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 29 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 9 7 5 3 2 8 6 5 5 11 12 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 -5 -5 -5 -6 -4 -3 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 31 15 359 5 19 105 184 189 274 290 237 227 230
SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 161 162 164 163 159 156 156 154 154 155 156
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 6 10 7 9 7 10 7 10 6
700-500 MB RH 76 73 72 69 67 69 70 68 62 59 56 53 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 13 12 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 24 34 42 48 59 78 84 100 100 105 91 59 33
200 MB DIV 31 31 62 71 100 112 79 79 19 12 11 -2 4
700-850 TADV -4 -4 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 2 1 4 1 2 2
LAND (KM) 242 182 123 75 26 -59 -146 -202 -219 -247 -241 -237 -200
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.2 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.4
LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.0 99.2 99.2 99.3 99.4 99.5 99.6 99.9 99.9 100.0 100.2 100.8
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3
HEAT CONTENT 33 37 37 32 26 45 48 49 0 0 0 0 0
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14046
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#73 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:19 am

Image

WTPN21 PHNC 170630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 98.7W TO 16.8N 99.4W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170600Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 98.7W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 13.5N 98.7W,
215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A
170419Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE
NORTH QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A
170418Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180630Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112117
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: TWENTY-E - Tropical Depression

#74 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2014 3:57 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 99.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE BEGINNING
THIS EVENING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND
IS LIKELY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO IN ABOUT A DAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INTENSIFICATION TO A TROPICAL STORM IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO
12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES FROM THE DEPRESSION WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

The tropical disturbance south of Mexico has developed deep
convection organized in rainbands today. Correspondingly, the
subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB have come in at
1.5 and 2.0, respectively. Additionally, ship and ASCAT
scatterometer observations suggest that a well-defined closed
circulation has formed. Thus the system is being started as
a tropical cyclone in this advisory. The two ASCAT passes this
afternoon suggest peak winds of 30-35 kt, though these are along the
edge of the swath and may not be reliable. Finally, a couple of
ships at 18Z indicated winds of 30-35 kt. This relative bounty of
observations indicates an intensity of 30 kt, though this may be
somewhat conservative.

The tropical depression appears to be in an environment conducive
for further intensification in the short term, as water temperatures
are near 30C, vertical shear is very weak, and the atmosphere is
quite moist in the low levels and supportive of deep convection.
Intensification is shown, quite similar to a blend of the SHIPS
statistical model and the GFDL and HWRF dynamical models. A 48 hr
point is shown for continuity, but the system is unlikely to exist
that long as a tropical cyclone over the high terrain of Mexico. An
alternative scenario - supported by the ECMWF and GFDL models - is
that the cyclone reaches the coast, but does not press inland,
meandering just offshore as a tropical cyclone for a longer time
than indicated here.

The location and motion of the cyclone's center have substantial
uncertainty, though it appears to be moving toward the north at
about 7 kt. The tropical depression is being steered primarily due
to the interaction of deep-layer southwesterlies equatorward of the
cyclone with a weak ridge to its northeast. The system should slow
its forward speed during the next couple days as the steering flow
weakens. The NHC forecast track is based upon the TVCE multi-model
ensemble.

The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall that will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides in
portions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially
near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 15.4N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 16.1N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 16.7N 99.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 19/0600Z 17.2N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 19/1800Z 17.5N 99.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112117
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: TWENTY-E - Tropical Depression

#75 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:54 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014
500 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 99.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND IS LIKELY TO
MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO
12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES FROM THE DEPRESSION WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2643
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

#76 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:35 pm

Any best track data on this?
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112117
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: TRUDY - Tropical Storm

#77 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:53 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TRUDY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 99.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST. TRUDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK IS LIKELY...WITH TRUDY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING
EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOW LIKELY SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES FROM TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Satellite images indicate that the cyclone is becoming better
organized with very deep convection near the center and significant
bands in the southern semicircle. Microwave satellite data and
radar data from Acapulco also confirm this trend, with some evidence
of some inner-core features forming. Dvorak intensity estimates are
increasing, and the initial intensity is set to 35 kt, in best
agreement with the Data-T number from TAFB. Although the
environment is quite favorable for intensification, the cyclone
doesn't have much time before it makes landfall. Thus, the official
forecast keeps the previous peak intensity prediction of 45 kt,
which lies on the higher side of the consensus.

Best estimate of initial motion is northward at about 4 kt.
Deep-layer southerly flow should steer Trudy generally northward
until landfall within 24 hours. Guidance has trended a little
slower after 12 hours, and the new NHC forecast reflects that trend.
Although there is still some chance that the cyclone lingers near
the coast, the surface circulation will probably get disrupted by
the very high terrain, so dissipation is expected in 36-48 hours.

The primary threat from this system is still expected to be heavy
rainfall that will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides in
portions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially
near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 16.5N 99.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 16.8N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 19/1200Z 17.0N 99.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8564
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#78 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:54 pm

On our T storm :double: ....
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10524
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#79 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:54 pm

Call me crazy, but it won't shock me if this somehow becomes a hurricane prior to landfall.
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4201
Age: 29
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: EPAC: TRUDY - Tropical Storm

#80 Postby Macrocane » Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:30 pm

Trudy is the 21st tropical storm of the season (Central+East Pacific), the highest number since the record 1992 season.
0 likes   


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest