EPAC: TRUDY - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: TRUDY - Tropical Storm

#81 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:33 am

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Corrected typo in sentence referring to rapid intensification

Microwave imagery and radar data from Acapulco suggest that Trudy is
intensifying. The cyclone has recently formed an inner core, and
the nascent central dense overcast (CDO) is quickly becoming better
defined. A 10 to 15 n mi eye feature within the CDO has also closed
off and become more circular within the past few hours as seen on
radar imagery. Dvorak intensity estimates are generally increasing,
and the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, slightly above the
latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value. Trudy is embedded in a very moist and
light-shear environment over 30 deg C waters, all of which favor
continued intensification. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a
nearly 70 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity
during the next 24 hours. The only inhibiting factor is the
cyclone's proximity to land, which would end the current
intensification phase. Given the current trend, the NHC intensity
forecast is increased significantly over the previous one and is
much higher than all of the available intensity guidance. A major
caveat to the forecast is that the predicted intensity could be too
low should the cyclone remain offshore longer than anticipated.

Radar imagery shows that Trudy has been drifting slowly eastward,
with a rather uncertain initial motion estimate of 080/02. The
synoptic pattern suggests that Trudy should generally be steered
very slowly toward the northeast or east around the northern
periphery of a mid-level ridge located well to the southeast during
the next day or so. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the
east of the previous one and is farther east than the HWRF and GFS
ensemble mean on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, with
landfall predicted in roughly 12 hours.

Based on the revised track and intensity forecast, the government of
Mexico has issued a hurricane watch from east of Acapulco to Laguna
de Chacahua.

It is worth emphasizing that the primary threat from this system is
will be the torrential rains, which will likely produce flash
flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico during the
next few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 16.2N 98.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 16.4N 98.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 19/0600Z 16.5N 98.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 19/1800Z 16.6N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: TRUDY - Tropical Storm

#82 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:34 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Call me crazy, but it won't shock me if this somehow becomes a hurricane prior to landfall.


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED AS TRUDY QUICKLY INTENSIFIES...
...SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE THREATENS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING...



SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 98.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF
ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. TRUDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE TRUDY MAKES LANDFALL...WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#83 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:54 am

immediate worry is for Pacific Mexico as this could be a hurricane at landfall but after it moves into the BOC it will need to be watched in the Yucatan, Cuba and maybe Florida in the long run so it may not be done doing landfalls after Pacific Mexico

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#84 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:55 am

Looks like it made landfall.
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Re: EPAC: TRUDY - Tropical Storm

#85 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:56 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...SLOW-MOVING TRUDY THREATENS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 98.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
COMPLETEL
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...RADAR FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED ON THE COAST NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
TRUDY INLAND LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INLAND...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES
FARTHER INLAND LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA NOW.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: TRUDY - Tropical Storm

#86 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:52 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY MOVED INLAND BUT HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 98.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND
MAINTAINED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE EAST OF ACAPULCO TO
LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8
WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...BUT
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER
WATER. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY OR
SOONER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...LIKELY CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Radar from Acapulco Mexico and microwave data show that the center
of Trudy crossed the coast about 60 n mi east of Acapulco around
1000 UTC this morning. Since that time, surface observations and
satellite images indicate that the circulation is becoming disrupted
by the high terrain. However, it is estimated that winds of 40 kt
are still occuring near the coast associated with the southern
portion of the circulation.

Trudy has been moving northward or 360 degrees at 4 kt. The
steering currents are very weak and track guidance shows little
motion during the next 24 hours or so. On this basis, the NHC
forecast calls for little motion. Since Trudy is already inland
over high terrain, additional weakening is anticipated, and the
cyclone is forecast to be a remnant low by Sunday or even sooner.

Given that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to move little,
torrential rains are expected to continue during the next couple
of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in portions of
southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 17.2N 98.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 19/0000Z 17.5N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 19/1200Z 17.5N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0000Z 17.5N 98.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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#87 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:58 am

Danm, it almost pulled a Barbara. Oh well, it tried.
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Re: EPAC: TRUDY - Tropical Storm

#88 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 1:02 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY BARELY A TROPICAL STORM BUT DRENCHING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 98.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8
WEST. TRUDY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER
WATER. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES GENERATED BY TRUDY ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...LIKELY CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#89 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:50 pm

They transferred Trudy to the Atlantic side

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
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Re:

#90 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:51 pm

StormingB81 wrote:They transferred Trudy to the Atlantic side

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html


Yeah I've seen. Interesting. Never witnessed a crossover before.
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Re: EPAC: TRUDY - Remnants

#91 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...TRUDY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES STILL LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 98.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


REMNANTS OF TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the
low-level circulation of Trudy has dissipated. Thus, this will be
the last advisory on this system. Even though the cyclone has
dissipated, the global models only move the remnants slowly
northeastward over the next couple of days. This pattern should
continue the threat of heavy rains, resulting in flash flooding and
mudslides in portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of
elevated terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 17.4N 98.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF TRUDY
12H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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