ATL: Ex NINE

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ATL: Ex NINE

#1 Postby blazess556 » Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:19 am

For Bay Of Campeche area.

AL, 93, 2014102006, 01, CARQ, 0, 195N, 955W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Thread that was the topic at the Talking Tropics forum for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116867&hilit=&start=0



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves eastward to east-northeastward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:56 pm, edited 7 times in total.
Reason: To edit the title
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#2 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:21 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#3 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:31 am

Convection really increasing this morning.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#4 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:32 am

seems to be doing what models predicted, lets see if it can get anything going at the surface
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#5 Postby blazess556 » Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:45 am

Pressure in the Bay of Campeche is slowly falling too. Buoy 42055 is reporting pressure of 1008.8 mb as of 4:50 am EDT and VERV4 in Veracruz Harbor, MX is showing 1006.8 mb as of 5 a.m. EDT


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#6 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:39 am

Image
A few storms have moved ENE from BOC and crossed Florida... Pretty rare...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:51 am

8 AM TWO:

An area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.
This system has some potential to become a tropical cyclone during
the next two to three days while it moves slowly eastward to
east-northeastward, before it interacts and possibly merges with a
frontal system towards the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#8 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:54 am

its been a strange year but october is our month in florida...nice ramp up in the nhc probabilities, they are liking this system
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#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:01 am

:uarrow: They also think that it will merge with a frontal system by the end of the week, which explains why the models had it looking subtropical once near Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#10 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:02 am

Blown Away wrote:http://i58.tinypic.com/2u8awl1.jpg
A few storms have moved ENE from BOC and crossed Florida... Pretty rare...

By the way, where do you get these maps with all those storms on them? I had that site bookmarked a while back but lost it.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby fci » Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:22 am

Looks like NWS-Miami sees this as issue next week.
Next Wednesday forecast:
Wednesday
Overcast with thunderstorms. High of 79F. Windy. Winds from the NE at 30 to 40 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.5 in. possible.
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Re:

#12 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:27 am

fci wrote:Looks like NWS-Miami sees this as issue next week.
Next Wednesday forecast:
Wednesday
Overcast with thunderstorms. High of 79F. Windy. Winds from the NE at 30 to 40 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.5 in. possible.


you have link for that..thx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#13 Postby blp » Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:28 am

Blown Away wrote: A few storms have moved ENE from BOC and crossed Florida... Pretty rare...


Thanks for the graphic. What system is the one the rides up the keys? It looked pretty strong.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#14 Postby blp » Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:34 am

06z GFS Ensembles
Image
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#15 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:55 am

12Z position and movement:

At 1200 UTC, 20 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL93) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.5°N and 95.4°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 3 kt at a bearing of 45 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realti ... /al932014/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#16 Postby weatherwindow » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:15 am

blp wrote:
Blown Away wrote:A few storms have moved ENE from BOC and crossed Florida... Pretty rare...


Thanks for the graphic. What system is the one the rides up the keys? It looked pretty strong.


Inez 1966...however it traversed the Carib, E to W, crossing Cuba
SW to NE beginning to recurve, stalled near Nassau by a building ridge and reversed course over the Keys. a Cat 1-2 over Keys
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#17 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:27 am

Pretty good 850MB vorticity in the SW BOC:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#18 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:30 am

One thing that is consistent with all the models is the forecast of moderate advection of cool, dry air southward across the Gulf all week, with a frontal boundary across the southern Gulf and into the BoC. Lows can sometimes form on the trailing ends of cold fronts. I like the Euro's solution in this case. Low pressure forms in the BoC over the next day or two then tracks northeastward across the Yucatan. Increasing advection of cool, dry air into the southern Gulf by Thu/Fri as the low and cold front merge and the low loses any tropical characteristics it might have acquired up until Friday.

And with this week's weather pattern, you can throw out all those historical tracks that take a storm northward toward the northern Gulf Coast. Not going to happen with cold air advection across the central and northern Gulf all week. At most (in Florida), you're looking at increased rain chances across the lower peninsula by this weekend.
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#19 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:37 am

I discussed last night on the other thread "Possible development in the BOC". I noted the AO and NAO is reverting back to positive and if this verifies, this could play big with our developing system down in the BOC. The troughing pattern which has been in play for quite some time across the Eastern CONUS may ease up in the coming days. This may allow ridging to set up during the next week across either the SE U.S., or Eastern seaboard. This set-up may trap this potential entity or keep the developing cyclone from getting taken out to sea into the Atlantic. Thus, we may be seeing a real strong potential rain/wind event for much of the peninsula, especially South Florida within the next week.

This is strictly my educated opinion and not official forecast. But, this is definitely a situation that bears watching over the next week or so.
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#20 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:48 am

Convection on the increase:

Image
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