ATL: Ex NINE

[AdamFirst]

NWS Miami changed their forecast a bit from last night, as they reintroduce POPS on Tuesday with the potential for enhanced coverage starting Wednesday.

THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY AND REACH NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

[gatorcane]

With the 12Z guidance coming in stronger and the way that it looks today, NHC should be increasing the development chances for the upcoming outlook they will release at 2pm EST.

Both the GEM and NAVGEM are back to showing what look like hurricanes.

[AdamFirst]

Interesting run by the GEM indeed...

[Sanibel]

TWC Mexico radar has the center over land still. The visible 21-96 LLC is an illusion. If correct that would mean we haven't seen anything yet as far as convection.

[gatorcane]

Latest floater and to me it is looking better and better. Let's see what the NHC says soon with they release their outlook:

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the low is at 21N 97W just off the Mexican coast

[Sanibel]

This thing is drawing to the south all the way into EPAC. That means it is big which is usually a bad sign.

[psyclone]

there's pretty impressive cyclonic turning evident on the east side. It's certainly trying

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO up to 50%-60%

Surface and upper-air observations indicate that the low pressure
system located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche is gradually
becoming better defined. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone during the next two to three days while it moves
slowly eastward to east-northeastward, before it interacts and
possibly merges with a frontal system towards the end of the week.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[gatorcane]

2 PM TWO up to 50%-60%

Surface and upper-air observations indicate that the low pressure
system located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche is gradually
becoming better defined. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone during the next two to three days while it moves
slowly eastward to east-northeastward, before it interacts and
possibly merges with a frontal system towards the end of the week.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Code red:

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, it is coming together gradually. I agree that I see turning right near the coast approx 21N and just past 97 longitude.

[gatorcane]

This thing is drawing to the south all the way into EPAC. That means it is big which is usually a bad sign.

Indeed when you look at the big picture (loop posted below), it has the "look" it could develop. You can see what could be the seminal stages of some "banding" starting to form with a plume of moisture it is sucking up from the EPAC. It is large and something you would see more out in the open Atlantic:

[ronjon]

Well a couple of the models are really blowing this thing up in the BOC and move it very very slowly. This is an area where storms can really wind up. But in this case, it would be drifting east rather than west into Mexico.

[jhpigott]

I know a lot can change, but it sure looks like, based upon modeling, that SFL is going to get some weather from this entity - whether it be a frontal low, sub-tropical or a TC

[jlauderdal]

2 PM TWO up to 50%-60%

Surface and upper-air observations indicate that the low pressure
system located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche is gradually
becoming better defined. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone during the next two to three days while it moves
slowly eastward to east-northeastward, before it interacts and
possibly merges with a frontal system towards the end of the week.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Code red:

they have been very aggressive with the ramp up

[chaser1]

Good point; looks like it has good inflow. It there's 30 knot shear overhead, you wouldn't know it. That bursting convection is helping to warm the upper levels and probably (at least temporarily) negating the shear. I'm guessing any present LLC is a bit east/west stretched, but that a center might form around 21N & 96W. Sure can't say I see any obvious sign of motion at the moment and no way do i see this deepening that fast and suddenly hauling off to the ENE. WXman's point makes sense regarding the dryer cooler air coming down. If he's right, this lies within the general framework of what NWS is thinking and perhaps we have a depression or a weak Hannah slide up and along the front, but then lose much in the form of tropical characteristics while doing so.

I think the "Las Vegas 15 to 1 long-shot", would be something that Crownweather & NorthJaxPro eluded to (perhaps here or in the models thread), which is the concept of 93L moving due east and somehow burying itself long enough in the W. Caribbean, to potentially elude the steering ahead of the front AND the much dryer air filtering into the entire Gulf. If this were a fairly small system i'd say no way, but 93L seemingly has a fairly broad envelope developing at the moment. Unlikely as it is, I large fairly well developed tropical cyclone does have the capacity to alter and modify conditions itself. With the type of season we're having, that would seem unlikely.... then again, those living on Bermuda might tend to disagree

[South Texas Storms]

Storms can spin up quickly in the Bay of Campeche, so this is certainly something we should watch closely. The shape of the curved coastline down there can help get the spin going in areas of disturbed weather.

[northjaxpro]

Storms can spin up quickly in the Bay of Campeche, so this is certainly something we should watch closely. The shape of the curved coastline down there can help get the spin going in areas of disturbed weather.

Spot on STS! That is a good point. I have seen several waves/ tropical cyclones spin up quickly through the years down there in the BOC.

[northjaxpro]

This system may make a direct impact on the Yucatan Peninsula moving due east later this week and head for the NW Caribbean. Looks real plausible right now.

[HurriGuy]

Not sure if you guys have access to the CMA model, but it builds a big ridge over east U.S. and at hour 240 it has storm out in Gulf paralleling north with Florida coast. Obviously one run means nothing, but I thought it was intriguing.