ATL: Ex NINE

[HurricaneRyan]

I knew this would eventually become Hanna!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1200 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...1200 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...CENTER OF HANNA ALONG THE COAST OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 83.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM N OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Sanibel]

The Floater trop points has this headed WSW to its doom over Central America. It obviously would have threatened hurricane if it stayed over water.

This was 100% a TS and certainly disproved the poof claims.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The Floater trop points has this headed WSW to its doom over Central America. It obviously would have threatened hurricane if it stayed over water.

This was 100% a TS and certainly disproved the poof claims.

Wow. Wasn't it 10% this morning? Caught everyone off guard.

[galaxy401]

This is why we can never say never with regards to chance of development. I still kept an eye on it despite the low chances. Did end up becoming Hanna after all.

It was 30% earlier today. But it was only 10 last night.

[ozonepete]

The Floater trop points has this headed WSW to its doom over Central America. It obviously would have threatened hurricane if it stayed over water.

This was 100% a TS and certainly disproved the poof claims.

Wow. Wasn't it 10% this morning? Caught everyone off guard.

Didn't catch me off guard. Go see what I posted for the last few days and especially last night. Just look in between the dozens of poof predictions.

[blp]

NHC still playing catch up with Hanna. Looks to be further North than previous update.

1200 PM POSITION UPDATE... ...CENTER OF HANNA ALONG THE COAST OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...

12:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 27
Location: 14.9�N 83.3�W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[northjaxpro]

The Floater trop points has this headed WSW to its doom over Central America. It obviously would have threatened hurricane if it stayed over water.

This was 100% a TS and certainly disproved the poof claims.

Wow. Wasn't it 10% this morning? Caught everyone off guard.

Didn't catch me off guard. Go see what I posted for the last few days and especially last night. Just look in between the dozens of poof predictions.

Yeah, I was definitely in the never say never contingent, especially concerning any low level vorticity meandering around in the Northwestern Caribbean. Even when it appeared the system had intera0ted with the front, iI never totally discounted that the low level vorticity would not be able to stay as a separate entity. Hanna was able to do just that. I will give kudos to Gatorcane and a few others who were diillegent following the proigress of this system throughout this event!

[ozonepete]

Yeah, I was definitely in the never say never contingent, especially concerning any low level vorticity meandering around in the Northwestern Caribbean. Even when it appeared the system had intera0ted with the front, iI never totally discounted that the low level vorticity would not be able to stay as a separate entity. Hanna was able to do just that. I will give kudos to Gatorcane and a few others who were diillegent following the proigress of this system throughout this event!

Yeah I remember for sure you and gatorcane and there were others. We were just being cautious.

[DESTRUCTION5]

TD or weak TS looks very possible on most modeling but all agree On dissipation in or before a Yucatan landfall.

Ditto

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[blp]

I would not give up on Hanna just yet. The High over Georgia is moving east and the western flank of the ridge is starting to erode some causing more of a WNW motion on the charts. In the last three hours it has switched from West to WNW. Let's see if it can emerge off the coast.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2014102718, , BEST, 0, 147N, 836W, 35, 1005, TS

[cycloneye]

CrazyC83,they already made changes to the best track file making it a TD at 00z and a TS at 06z.

AL, 09, 2014102700, , BEST, 0, 152N, 819W, 30, 1006, TD,
AL, 09, 2014102706, , BEST, 0, 149N, 824W, 35, 1005, TS,

[gatorcane]

I would not give up on Hanna just yet. The High over Georgia is moving east and the western flank of the ridge is starting to erode some causing more of a WNW motion on the charts. In the last three hours it has switched from West to WNW. Let's see if it can emerge off the coast. http://oi60.tinypic.com/178zo5.jpg

For the past several runs now, GFS shows a vorticity breaking off and heading into the Gulf of Honduras, but it does show it inland into Belize by hour 30.

Convection is increasing north of Honduras the past few hours, could be a little shear-induced.

[BZSTORM]

I would not give up on Hanna just yet. The High over Georgia is moving east and the western flank of the ridge is starting to erode some causing more of a WNW motion on the charts. In the last three hours it has switched from West to WNW. Let's see if it can emerge off the coast. http://oi60.tinypic.com/178zo5.jpg

For the past several runs now, GFS shows a vorticity breaking off and heading into the Gulf of Honduras, but it does show it inland into Belize by hour 30.

Convection is increasing north of Honduras the past few hours:

Those of us who remember H. Iris, H. Mitch and TS Harvey (which formed in similar place to Hanna in 2011 all be it Aug) are still watching this closely - I personally do not see this drifting South as NHC track and as you pointed out convection is hotting up on North over water almost like its trying to pull itself over there. It was still cool in South of Belize this morning till 10am 76F which is cool for average norm of 87F + . By 10am it was up to 86F and it is still warming up. Personally I would be happy to see it fizzle out but since I have been monitoring cyclones in my backyard since Iris, there is a trend for these cyclones to take their own path and its not always what NHC expects. So here in Belize a good number of us are watching and waiting to see what it does. Either way it looks like we will getting wet in next few days if Hanna keeps crawling along with her Northern end hanging out in the sea.
In meantime spare a moment for those in Honduras & Nicaragua, the drought in Honduras has left people thousands of farmers starving from nothing able to grow (was on our regional news a few days ago). So there are areas bone dry, hard ground which means little will soak in immediately, allot of surface run off, increasing the odd for floods and landslides. Slow moving is very very bad for these countries meaning inches of rain for much longer.

[gatorcane]

18z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2014102718, , BEST, 0, 147N, 836W, 35, 1005, TS

Text, slightly more towards the W and pressure maintaining:

At 1800 UTC, 27 October 2014, TROPICAL STORM HANNA (AL09) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 14.7°N and 83.6°W. The current intensity was 35 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 260 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb.

[gatorcane]

Here is another nice floater to track Hanna:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... lor=yellow

[CrazyC83]

CrazyC83,they already made changes to the best track file making it a TD at 00z and a TS at 06z.

AL, 09, 2014102700, , BEST, 0, 152N, 819W, 30, 1006, TD,
AL, 09, 2014102706, , BEST, 0, 149N, 824W, 35, 1005, TS,

That's what I figured they would do. TD at 00Z, 35 kt TS at 06Z, 40-45 kt TS at 12Z and 18Z (now) based on the ASCAT pass and satellite signature of the small storm.

[Hammy]

Winds on both coasts are out of the northwest which tells me the center is offshore, and that it is moving WNW, which may have a sizable impact on the models when this data goes into the non-MU models

Edit: if you give a good stare at NASA sped-up loop, you can see the center spinning just north of Cabo Gracias a Dios.