ATL: Ex NINE

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#21 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:58 am

Based on the buoy obs in the BOC with the lowest pressures down near Veracruz, that indeed may be where the Low pressure area is beginning to organize near the coast there.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6355
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#22 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:09 am

Really hard to say with this setup whether it gets trapped or not, expect some model variations.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re:

#23 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:26 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Really hard to say with this setup whether it gets trapped or not, expect some model variations.


Yeah, I know Dean. I was simply pointing to the possible scenario in my post above about the +AO/NAO and the potential implications on Invest 93 down the road.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#24 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:26 am

That thing is beefing up now. Goes to show how unpredictable the tropics are that a late season kick you in the rear on the way out the door for the season wrongway system can threaten you when you don't expect it.


There could be an LLC in the 96-21 area.
0 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4487
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

#25 Postby psyclone » Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:43 am

what's the possibility that this (assuming it develops) slides far enough south to miss most, if not all, of Florida? that scenario seems a reasonable outcome.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re:

#26 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:48 am

psyclone wrote:what's the possibility that this (assuming it develops) slides far enough south to miss most, if not all, of Florida? that scenario seems a reasonable outcome.


Yes, that possibility is on the table as well.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#27 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:19 am

This is looking better by the hour. I wonder if we may be seeing the beginning of genesis around 21.5N, 96W, further north than where NHC has the X? Some of the globals have showed genesis happening further north in the BOC.

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:22 am, edited 4 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 893
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

Re:

#28 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:19 am

psyclone wrote:what's the possibility that this (assuming it develops) slides far enough south to miss most, if not all, of Florida? that scenario seems a reasonable outcome.


As you said it is a possible scenario, if you have a strong front coming down that steers the system further south than east, that might cause it to slide passed to the south.
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6771
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: Re:

#29 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:34 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
psyclone wrote:what's the possibility that this (assuming it develops) slides far enough south to miss most, if not all, of Florida? that scenario seems a reasonable outcome.


As you said it is a possible scenario, if you have a strong front coming down that steers the system further south than east, that might cause it to slide passed to the south.


slide to the south or if it stays farther north run into hostile conditions..either way this is going to have trouble as it approaches florida
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#30 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:37 am

RAMMB has moved the loader onto it and it is updated more frequently...here is the link:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:41 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2800
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#31 Postby blp » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:41 am

gatorcane wrote:RAMMB has moved the loader onto it and it is updated more frequently...here is the link:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12


Thank you. You are right this starting to take off. Good sping getting going now.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 893
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

Re: Re:

#32 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:42 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
psyclone wrote:what's the possibility that this (assuming it develops) slides far enough south to miss most, if not all, of Florida? that scenario seems a reasonable outcome.


As you said it is a possible scenario, if you have a strong front coming down that steers the system further south than east, that might cause it to slide passed to the south.


slide to the south or if it stays farther north run into hostile conditions..either way this is going to have trouble as it approaches florida


Or get caught in a stalled out mess over us with several days of rain and wind.
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2800
Age: 45
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#33 Postby blp » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:46 am

Dr Master's take:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2836

Moisture from Tropical Storm Trudy, which made landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico about 75 miles east-southeast of Acapulco on Saturday morning, has moved northwards across Mexico into the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. A large area of low pressure (93L) is forming there, and will bring heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida on Wednesday through Friday. Satellite loops show the low has plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, but these thunderstorms are poorly organized, due to high wind shear of 30 knots. Water vapor satellite images show there is dry air from Mexico flowing eastwards over the central Gulf of Mexico, which may slow development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are very warm, about 29.5°C. The 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Wednesday - Friday, giving 93L a better chance to develop in the later part of the week. The Monday morning runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all showed support for some slow development of 93L this week. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 40%, respectively. The low should move generally eastward or east-northeastward during the week, spreading heavy rains, with rainfall amounts of 4 - 8" likely over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
weatherwindow
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Joined: Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:48 am
Location: key west/ft lauderdale

Re: Re:

#34 Postby weatherwindow » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:49 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
psyclone wrote:what's the possibility that this (assuming it develops) slides far enough south to miss most, if not all, of Florida? that scenario seems a reasonable outcome.


As you said it is a possible scenario, if you have a strong front coming down that steers the system further south than east, that might cause it to slide passed to the south.


slide to the south or if it stays farther north run into hostile conditions..either way this is going to have trouble as it approaches florida


In addition to the trof strength, trof sharpness may be a determining factor wrt the track...ie a broad based trof would likely result in a flatter more southerly track
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#35 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:52 am

Recon on standby for tommorow. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml
0 likes   

User avatar
FireRat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1138
Age: 36
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:38 pm
Location: North Carolina

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#36 Postby FireRat » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:58 am

Wow, the invest is really becoming more and more impressive, with this amazing scenario beginning to show up for Florida! Late October is an infamous time of year for the peninsula, Wilma in 2005 and the Tampa hurricane of 1925 to name a few...both struck around October 25. That is a cutoff date here in Florida for majors it seems...way too early to say we will see another big storm strike us from the southwest, but I agree that this setup is one to watch closely as the week progresses in case history decides to repeat itself.
0 likes   
Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 893
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#37 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:16 am

When do we anticipate the rain will start here in South Florida, I have a major series 6 CE exam to take on Wednesday.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4156
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#38 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:25 am

I know we are a long way from determining eventual strength and track of this system but here is something to consider. Regardless of the strength of the actual system I think we can expect to get some pretty good rain and winds out of this. The pressure gradient will be on the increase and I would expect the winds to accelerate well in advance of the system. Something else to consider is that storms that ride along a front such as this one can be enhanced by the trough. Wilma immediately comes to mind as does Tropical Storm Mitch from 1998. Mitch only came across us as a 55 mph tropical storm but was being so enhanced by the front that it packed a pretty good punch when it came through. The one saving grace is just like Mitch and Wilma the exit to the NE should come quick if it gets grabbed by the front.

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2487
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#39 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:27 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:When do we anticipate the rain will start here in South Florida, I have a major series 6 CE exam to take on Wednesday.


Wednesday should be the start as NWS Miami reintroduces POPS to the forecast, but the end of the week has the chance of being the worst.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 893
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#40 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:31 am

Thanks Adam,

So hopefully Wed will be a normal S. Florida day with a normal chance for rain.
0 likes   


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 36 guests