ATL: Ex NINE

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gatorcane
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#761 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:23 pm

Hammy I am not seeing anything north of Cabo Gracias a Dios. Center looks inland now to me and heading generally west. I just saw the 12Z UKMET run and it turns it more WNW within the next 12-24 hours and gets it back over water briefly before going into Belize. NHC seems to be taking a blend of the GFS ensembles which take it SW. I don't see it moving that way.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#762 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:35 pm

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 83.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#763 Postby blp » Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:47 pm

:uarrow: I see the NHC dropped it back down to 14.6. It does look West when you straighten it out. Following the Euro right now. I think the only chance is the northerly vort getting going as the main vort slowly dissipates. Problem is the northern vort is not at the surface and will take time.

Image
Last edited by blp on Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#764 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:47 pm

it look other low forming to north of other
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#765 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:20 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-rgb-long.html

I still see something to the north skirting the coast. At or perhaps just south of 15.4/83.5, and the convection is blowing up and moving east, well to the north of where the official position is.

Image

Follow the deepest convection and what appears to be the LLC or at least the northern end of it. I still believe the center is north of the official position, and likely just offshore. Felix 2007 once inland could be an example that they tracked the MLC west after weakening, but post-analysis showed the center actually moved back offshore and into Belize.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#766 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:35 pm

floridasun78 wrote:it look other low forming to north of other


This is pretty crazy stuff. I hate to say it, but I also see some kind of change in the circulation where the center may be reforming to the north or shifting north in a complex circulation. I'm just going to watch it and try to keep quiet for now like I did on Friday and Saturday. But if this has any more tricks up its sleeve the NHC will be pulling their hair out lol.
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#767 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:09 pm

There appears to be an area of deeper convection still firing north of the northeastern coast of Honduras well north into the NW Caribbean sea. Doesn't appear to be moving much and latest frame from 21:45Z shows high towers starting to show up there.

Meanwhile the center of Hanna continues to move slowly west over land.

Stepping back and looking at the entire area, almost looks like a strong tropical wave with axis aligned north-south moving slowly west.

Could the "northern axis" possibly spawn something in the Gulf of Honduras?
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Re:

#768 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:25 pm

gatorcane wrote:There appears to be an area of deeper convection still firing north of the northeastern coast of Honduras well north into the NW Caribbean sea. Doesn't appear to be moving much and latest frame from 21:45Z shows high towers starting to show up there.

Meanwhile the center of Hanna continues to move slowly west over land.

Stepping back and looking at the entire area, almost looks like a strong tropical wave with axis aligned north-south moving slowly west.

Could the "northern axis" possibly spawn something in the Gulf of Honduras?

that good question i seen storms growing that area
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#769 Postby weatherwindow » Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:01 pm

Sanibel..."Never ignore the black IR" :lol:

Serious convection offshore...respectable towers north of the eastern Honduran coast...we wait and see
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re:

#770 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:17 pm

gatorcane wrote:There appears to be an area of deeper convection still firing north of the northeastern coast of Honduras well north into the NW Caribbean sea. Doesn't appear to be moving much and latest frame from 21:45Z shows high towers starting to show up there.

Meanwhile the center of Hanna continues to move slowly west over land.

Stepping back and looking at the entire area, almost looks like a strong tropical wave with axis aligned north-south moving slowly west.

Could the "northern axis" possibly spawn something in the Gulf of Honduras?


Something very unusual is going on there. Definitely needs to be watched.
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#771 Postby Annie Oakley » Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:36 pm

Don't mean to sound ignorant-what/where is the gulf of Honduras? Never heard that phrase in my life.....would love to see the graphic. Apology in advance to Honduranzzz et al
Last edited by Annie Oakley on Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#772 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:37 pm

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 84.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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#773 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:39 pm

Puerto Lempira now reporting SW wind at 20kts, which is consistent with movement and where I thought the center was at earlier. Probably inland now, still north of official position. It would be nice if there was a radar available from the area.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#774 Postby blp » Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:39 pm

Intersting microwave pass early today would suggest center was above 15N then.

Image
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#775 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:40 pm

blp wrote:Intersting microwave pass early today would suggest center was above 15N.

Image


That effectively confirms that was the LLC I was seeing on satellite earlier. :D

Image
Image

for comparison.

NHC discussion tonight as well as the next set of ASCAT passes will be interesting to see.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#776 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 84.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


That position cannot be correct. Just look at the microwave image blp posted. If the system was not stacked then you could say the surface low could be south of where the microwave shows it, but there were no indications from the other data that the center was not upright. So the center has to be north of 15 degrees north.
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Re:

#777 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:52 pm

Annie Oakley wrote:Don't mean to sound ignorant-what/where is the gulf of Honduras? Never heard that phrase in my life.....would love to see the graphic. Apology in advance to Honduranzzz et al


Hi Annie! Got it now?

Image
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#778 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:52 pm

ozonepete wrote:That position cannot be correct. Just look at the microwave image blp posted. If the system was not stacked then you could say the surface low could be south of where the microwave shows it, but there were no indications from the other data that the center was not upright. So the center has to be north of 15 degrees north.


If anything, it may be tilted southward hence why I think the (old) MLC is being tracked at the moment, while it seems to be restacking itself at the moment.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#779 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:00 pm

maybe new low taking over one want over land?
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#780 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:09 pm

Hammy good call. That microwave pass does confirm it. Now can it start reorganizing once it gets over water?
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