ATL: Ex NINE

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Annie Oakley
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Re: Re:

#781 Postby Annie Oakley » Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:17 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Annie Oakley wrote:Don't mean to sound ignorant-what/where is the gulf of Honduras? Never heard that phrase in my life.....would love to see the graphic. Apology in advance to Honduranzzz et al


Hi Annie! Got it now?

Image


Yes Brooklyn and I have bookmarked it. Thanks
Last edited by Annie Oakley on Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#782 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:18 pm

Annie Oakley wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Annie Oakley wrote:Don't mean to sound ignorant-what/where is the gulf of Honduras? Never heard that phrase in my life.....would love to see the graphic. Apology in advance to Honduranzzz et al


Hi Annie! Got it now?

Image


Yes Brooklyn and I have bookmarked it. Thanks


I learned something too, I thought it was the entire NW Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#783 Postby TJRE » Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:42 pm

MIMIC loop

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2014_09L/webManager/mainpage.html

gif with 5 sec hold last frame
23:45 UTC or 07:45pm EDT

hows that grab ya! 8-)

Image
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#784 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:50 pm

spiral wrote:All i see now is this low washing out on satellite and nothing more i do know there are a few very astute posters here (Hammy,Gatorcane) but i don't agree with another low full stop. I do think 93E has a very good chance to recurve as a weak low into the GOM and next week may be interesting in the Bay of Campechee.


I'm personally of the belief that there is and always has been one single low, but that the NHC is tracking the MLC while the LLC has continued to be further north.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#785 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:02 pm

00z Best Track is well inland:

AL, 09, 2014102800, , BEST, 0, 145N, 843W, 30, 1006, TD
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#786 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:07 pm

Hammy wrote:
spiral wrote:All i see now is this low washing out on satellite and nothing more i do know there are a few very astute posters here (Hammy,Gatorcane) but i don't agree with another low full stop. I do think 93E has a very good chance to recurve as a weak low into the GOM and next week may be interesting in the Bay of Campechee.


I'm personally of the belief that there is and always has been one single low, but that the NHC is tracking the MLC while the LLC has continued to be further north.


If you step back and look at the data carefully it does indeed seem like there's been one low since this consolidated last night, and that one low center came ashore around the border of Nicaragua/Honduras and is now moving west-northwest. If this continues the surface center (LLC) will probably come over water again around Roatan/La Ceiba on the central Honduran coast and then move into Belize. That gives it a shot at staying a tropical storm until it goes inland over Belize. We've seen other Tropical Storms maintain strength on that path; just recently TS Harvey in 2011.
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#787 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:28 pm

Definitely looks like another LLC has/is forming just north off the NE Coast of Honduras moving WNW. You could easily see the low level clouds rotating northward toward it on the northern periphery of the old LLC.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#788 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track is well inland:

AL, 09, 2014102800, , BEST, 0, 145N, 843W, 30, 1006, TD


The Text:

At 0000 UTC, 28 October 2014, TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA (AL09) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 14.5°N and 84.3°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 260 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb.
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Re:

#789 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:46 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Definitely looks like another LLC has/is forming just north off the NE Coast of Honduras moving WNW. You could easily see the low level clouds rotating northward toward it on the northern periphery of the old LLC.

It does seem like something may be spinning just off the NE Coast of Honduras. Look carefully at this RGB loop:

Image
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#790 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:01 pm

going interesting what nhc say 11pm if picking up what we see
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#791 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:06 pm

Here's my best guess for the center. Definitely north of 15 degrees.

Image
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#792 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:10 pm

ozonepete wrote:Here's my best guess for the center. Definitely north of 15 degrees.

Image

so likely wont go back in water stay on coast or go sw
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#793 Postby blp » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:12 pm

Convection is dying off over NHC llc. We should start to see what is underneath. I like using the shortwave and see the low level clouds. Still not clear but as I said earlier I think the NHC is playing catch up again. They did mention uncertainty in locating the center at 5pm. I wonder if they had the microwave pass which clearly disagreed with there location.

Image
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#794 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:17 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Here's my best guess for the center. Definitely north of 15 degrees.
http://s189.photobucket.com/user/philny ... 4.gif.html


so likely wont go back in water stay on coast or go sw


No. I said earlier and still think the center is now moving WNW and will come out over the water around La Ceiba on the north central Honduran coast.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#795 Postby blp » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:19 pm

Looking as best I can I am seeing a decaying llc where the NHC has it heading SW it almost looks to have been ejected and could be just a vort max now. The charts showing greatest convergence on the coast right now.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#796 Postby TJRE » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:23 pm

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Image

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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#797 Postby blp » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:30 pm

Regardless of how good the modles are, all the ingrediants are here historically for a busted forecast.

1. You have a very small system which global models historically have trouble resolving intensity.

2. You have weak steering right now causing erractic motion.

3. Land interaction. Which normally leads to erractic motion.

4. No radar and limited observations in the area.

Not an easy forecast for the NHC.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

#798 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:35 pm

Well,they say kaput.

...HANNA DISSIPATES BUT HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

#799 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:36 pm

:uarrow: True. The biggest problem is the paucity of good local observations. That's a real hindrance to finding the center.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

#800 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:Well,they say kaput.

...HANNA DISSIPATES BUT HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


Again they do, lol!
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