ATL: Ex NINE

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Re: ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

#821 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:52 am

Seeing its durability it would have been something to deal with had it tracked 150 miles north. The center is inland according to the visible Floater.
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#822 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:58 am

If you loop tolakram's floater above, it seems a center may be trying to form just offshore and just SE of the island offshore Honduras. I don't see anything low-level inland. That island is reporting north winds so it would make sense.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

#823 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:02 am

When was the last time a single feature was identified by 3 invests? ;-)


TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1346 UTC TUE OCT 28 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962014) 20141028 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
141028 1200 141029 0000 141029 1200 141030 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 86.0W 16.6N 88.0W 17.3N 89.9W 17.8N 91.7W
BAMD 15.8N 86.0W 16.2N 87.3W 16.7N 88.5W 17.0N 89.3W
BAMM 15.8N 86.0W 16.3N 87.7W 16.7N 89.3W 17.0N 90.7W
LBAR 15.8N 86.0W 16.6N 87.6W 17.5N 89.0W 18.7N 89.8W
SHIP 20KTS 19KTS 18KTS 20KTS
DSHP 20KTS 19KTS 21KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
141030 1200 141031 1200 141101 1200 141102 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.2N 93.1W 18.1N 95.7W 18.3N 99.7W 20.4N 103.8W
BAMD 17.0N 89.7W 17.2N 88.8W 21.0N 82.1W 27.3N 70.1W
BAMM 17.0N 91.9W 16.9N 93.8W 16.7N 95.7W 17.0N 98.3W
LBAR 19.5N 90.4W 21.4N 89.5W 24.8N 85.5W 27.4N 78.1W
SHIP 20KTS 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 84.5W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 83.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

#824 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:03 am

I can just make out a center swirl tracking west right down the spine of the coastal mountains on SSD Floater. We'll see if it can relocate itself to the water. I think Belize got spared a crop wrecker.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

#825 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:06 am

Looks to be 16.2N/86W. Not at 15.8N as per Invest 96L.
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ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#826 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:10 am

Here we go for third time on this system. It's actually looking pretty good to me and you can see a LLC just ESE of the island offshore Honduras.
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#827 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:11 am

I opened up a new 96L thread so I assume we will lock this thread, for the third time? :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#828 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:17 am

Looks more impressive than Hanna yesterday afternoon. Should be inland into Belize this evening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#829 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:19 am

Good grief. Every time I post for this thing I come back and there's something new.


Looks like a closed low, booking west.

live loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-87&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=yellow

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#830 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:21 am

Yeah looking really good on that link Mark but I don't see it booking west. I am looking at the area just E of that island offshore Honduras. Looks like a slow NW movement?
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#831 Postby drezee » Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:26 am

Hanna will not die. Wxman57...I agree on your position. It looks to be moving WNW. Belize may be in for a tropical surprise. There are at least two cruise ships that are going from Belize to Roatan this evening. It will be a bumpy ride...
Last edited by drezee on Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#832 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:26 am

It's like a cockroach - it keeps getting slapped but it won't die! It should dissipate for the third and final time after moving inland tonight. A strong cold front will reach the BoC by late Thursday, so conditions there will be quite hostile.

The question is, would it become "Hanna" or "Isaias"?

P.S.
Note - it would definitely be "Hanna" again.
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#833 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:20 am

The way I see it by if this is Hanna again this thread, the Hanna thread and TD9 thread IMO should be merged

On topic: This is like one weird system, if it does redevelop will it be one continuous system or retained as 3 separate systems because I would think that they would make it one continuous system as its the same vorticity

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#834 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:22 am

It would definitely become Hanna again (we contacted NHC and they confirmed).

My thinking is that it will become TD Hanna again this afternoon, move across the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche by Thursday, where it will interact with the next cold front there. By Sunday, it will regenerate into a depression in the Bay of Campeche then track eastward across the Yucatan. It dissipates over the Yucatan only to redevelop near Honduras/Nicaragua. It then tracks west across the Yucatan and eventually into the Bay of Campeche, where it interacts with the next front. This goes on all winter...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#835 Postby blp » Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:26 am

The NHC was too quick to jump the gun last night and kill this IMO. With the microwave pass yesterday showing the llc north of 15 and convection flaring up most of the night it could be argued that the llc never opened up and the NHC was following a vort max that was moving SW instead of the real llc. Does not matter much now but it goes to show everyone that just because the NHC says something does not mean we here on the board need to take it as the final word.

Also, for all the greatness of the Euro it has not done well in the last few runs on this system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#836 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:27 am

wxman57 wrote:It would definitely become Hanna again (we contacted NHC and they confirmed).

My thinking is that it will become TD Hanna again this afternoon, move across the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche by Thursday, where it will interact with the next cold front there. By Sunday, it will regenerate into a depression in the Bay of Campeche then track eastward across the Yucatan. It dissipates over the Yucatan only to redevelop near Honduras/Nicaragua. It then tracks west across the Yucatan and eventually into the Bay of Campeche, where it interacts with the next front. This goes on all winter...

lol, very funny! :roflmao:

So Hanna appears to be rising from the grave, perfect timing given the week...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#837 Postby blp » Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:28 am

wxman57 wrote:It would definitely become Hanna again (we contacted NHC and they confirmed).

My thinking is that it will become TD Hanna again this afternoon, move across the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche by Thursday, where it will interact with the next cold front there. By Sunday, it will regenerate into a depression in the Bay of Campeche then track eastward across the Yucatan. It dissipates over the Yucatan only to redevelop near Honduras/Nicaragua. It then tracks west across the Yucatan and eventually into the Bay of Campeche, where it interacts with the next front. This goes on all winter...


Lol !! Crazy that we have been at this 12 days and it may end up where it started.
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#838 Postby BZSTORM » Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:54 am

Thanks to gatorcane I have been able to see the latest GFS run (which 12.00UTC puts it pretty close to my doorstep) Placencia Peninsula which iris kindly trashed in 2001 and Harvey then trashed some piers in 2011. Anyone got a composite image of tracks for the other models please. Not sure there is time to open a thread just for models as this will likely be on land in next 16 hrs. thanks
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Re:

#839 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:05 am

BZSTORM wrote:Thanks to gatorcane I have been able to see the latest GFS run (which 12.00UTC puts it pretty close to my doorstep) Placencia Peninsula which iris kindly trashed in 2001 and Harvey then trashed some piers in 2011. Anyone got a composite image of tracks for the other models please. Not sure there is time to open a thread just for models as this will likely be on land in next 16 hrs. thanks


I don't think there's any debate about where it's heading. It will be moving ashore into Belize tonight. No significant wind, just some rain.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#840 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:40 am

There's no doubt it's trying to relocate back over water near 16.
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