ATL: Ex NINE

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#841 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:48 am

Sanibel wrote:There's no doubt it's trying to relocate back over water near 16.


Loop the link below. It's been over water for several hours. Look just north of the island offshore Honduras. Looks like the LLC may be passing just to the North on a slow WNW heading. Observations support it.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... lor=yellow
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#842 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:10 pm

Edit: There's a clear eye over water by Roatan. I'll be.


Did it track or relocate?


I'm surprised it's not bursting more.


It looks like it has enough to regain Hanna pre-shore.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#843 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:35 pm

Sanibel wrote:Edit: There's a clear eye over water by Roatan. I'll be.


Did it track or relocate?


I'm surprised it's not bursting more.


It looks like it has enough to regain Hanna pre-shore.


I think it just tracked along on a WNW course from the Nicaragua/Honduras border since last night. Convection is firing up pretty well now and LLC is very obvious. Also more NW movement now and I agree it probably has just enough time. Belize it is!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#844 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:36 pm

gatorcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It would definitely become Hanna again (we contacted NHC and they confirmed).

My thinking is that it will become TD Hanna again this afternoon, move across the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche by Thursday, where it will interact with the next cold front there. By Sunday, it will regenerate into a depression in the Bay of Campeche then track eastward across the Yucatan. It dissipates over the Yucatan only to redevelop near Honduras/Nicaragua. It then tracks west across the Yucatan and eventually into the Bay of Campeche, where it interacts with the next front. This goes on all winter...

lol, very funny! :roflmao:

So Hanna appears to be rising from the grave, perfect timing given the week...


Yeah lol wxman. Cannot be killed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#845 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:42 pm

2 PM TWO:

A well-defined low pressure system, the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Hanna, has emerged over the Gulf of Honduras near Roatan. This
system is producing scattered showers across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and adjacant areas of northern Honduras, the Yucatan
Peninsula, and Belize. Although upper-levels winds are somewhat
favorable, proximity to land is expected to prevent any significant
redevelopment of this disturbance while it moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph. The system is forecast to move inland over Belize
and northern Guatemala by Wednesday morning, ending any chance for
redevelopment after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#846 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:2 PM TWO:

A well-defined low pressure system, the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Hanna, has emerged over the Gulf of Honduras near Roatan. This
system is producing scattered showers across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and adjacant areas of northern Honduras, the Yucatan
Peninsula, and Belize. Although upper-levels winds are somewhat
favorable, proximity to land is expected to prevent any significant
redevelopment of this disturbance while it moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph. The system is forecast to move inland over Belize
and northern Guatemala by Wednesday morning, ending any chance for
redevelopment after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Here we go again!
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#847 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:47 pm

In this loop, you can see it moving WNW now NW of Roatan. Looks like it has it's eyes set on Belize.

Mid-level circulation seems to be SE of Roatan where the thicker clouds are at. So not a well-stacked system which should keep it from gaining strength quickly.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... lor=yellow

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Re:

#848 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:58 pm

gatorcane wrote:In this loop, you can see it moving WNW now NW of Roatan. Looks like it has it's eyes set on Belize.

Mid-level circulation seems to be SE of Roatan where the thicker clouds are at. So not a well-stacked system which should keep it from gaining strength quickly.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... lor=yellow



It probably has more than one LLC again and will slowly consolidate them to one since it's back to the organizing stage. Again. :roll:
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Re:

#849 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:01 pm

gatorcane wrote: So not a well-stacked system which should keep it from gaining strength quickly.




I think the shear might have picked up again.


Also the southern inflow is now over land.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#850 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:06 pm

Note about having three threads for one system.

We now have three threads of discussion for the same system.Two of them (TD NINE and TS/TD HANNA threads are already at the archieves forum.It has been decided by the staff that once this system is done for good :) the three threads will be merged at that forum.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#851 Postby blp » Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:Note about having three threads for one system.

We now have three threads of discussion for the same system.Two of them (TD NINE and TS/TD HANNA threads are already at the archieves forum.It has been decided by the staff that once this system is done for good :) the three threads will be merged at that forum.


Out of curiosity has this every happened three invests for the same system? I don't remember seeing that before. Would it not be something if it moves inland on a more NW direction today to be dropped over land again and then emerges again in the BOC to then become 97l. That would bring this full circle. You can do it Td9/Hanna/96l!!! :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#852 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:36 pm

blp wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Note about having three threads for one system.

We now have three threads of discussion for the same system.Two of them (TD NINE and TS/TD HANNA threads are already at the archieves forum.It has been decided by the staff that once this system is done for good :) the three threads will be merged at that forum.


Out of curiosity has this every happened three invests for the same system? I don't remember seeing that before. Would it not be something if it moves inland on a more NW direction today to be dropped over land again and then emerges again in the BOC to then become 97l. That would bring this full circle. You can do it Td9/Hanna/96l!!! :D


Two threads have been made sometimes since S2K has been up from 2002 but three is a first.
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#853 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:37 pm

It's got a very well-defined center of circulation appearing "eye-like" on the floaters. Convection building on the south side now. Still heading WNW and should be over land by later this evening at the rate it is heading where she should fizzle for good. Something tells me it won't be that easy with ex-Hanna. She still may have a trick or two up her sleeve :)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#854 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:50 pm

Text of 18z Best Track:

At 1800 UTC, 28 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL96) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 16.5°N and 86.7°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 9 kt at a bearing of 310 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#855 Postby blp » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:27 pm

Coming back home... :D

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#856 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:38 pm

I seem to recall one of the models nailed this track about 4 days ago.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#857 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:40 pm

The LLC looks like it's been spit out over the last few hours, but given the location and movement, I would venture to say that this likely never "dissipated" nor moved very far inland.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#858 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:44 pm

Hammy wrote:The LLC looks like it's been spit out over the last few hours, but given the location and movement, I would venture to say that this likely never "dissipated" nor moved very far inland.


That LLC has been spit out and is no longer a valid one. Pretty sure there's a new one under the convection.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#859 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:45 pm

Sanibel wrote:I seem to recall one of the models nailed this track about 4 days ago.


If you shift the entire track about 60 miles northward, the GFS is the one that nailed it 6 days ago.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#860 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:46 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Hammy wrote:The LLC looks like it's been spit out over the last few hours, but given the location and movement, I would venture to say that this likely never "dissipated" nor moved very far inland.


That LLC has been spit out and is no longer a valid one. Pretty sure there's a new one under the convection.


Are you suggesting there could be an LLC under the convection that I see with some spin SE of Roatan?
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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