ATL: Ex NINE

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#861 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Hammy wrote:The LLC looks like it's been spit out over the last few hours, but given the location and movement, I would venture to say that this likely never "dissipated" nor moved very far inland.


That LLC has been spit out and is no longer a valid one. Pretty sure there's a new one under the convection.


Are you suggesting there could be an LLC under the convection that I see with some spin SE of Roatan?


That's exactly what I'm suggesting. :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#862 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:56 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Hammy wrote:The LLC looks like it's been spit out over the last few hours, but given the location and movement, I would venture to say that this likely never "dissipated" nor moved very far inland.


That LLC has been spit out and is no longer a valid one. Pretty sure there's a new one under the convection.


SE spin appears to be mid-level, not that a new low couldn't form, but the obs indicate only one so far.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#863 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:58 pm

After checking all of the variables, the shear just looks too punishing at 20-30 knots from the west down there. I just can't see this pulling a 3rd intensification, even though it doesn't look bad on satellite. So I'm not bullish at all right now, but I won't take my eyes of it until it goes inland and dies right before my eyes. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#864 Postby blp » Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:26 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Hammy wrote:The LLC looks like it's been spit out over the last few hours, but given the location and movement, I would venture to say that this likely never "dissipated" nor moved very far inland.


That LLC has been spit out and is no longer a valid one. Pretty sure there's a new one under the convection.


Great observations to both of you. Take a look at this link you can see the llc we were tracking getting spit out and a new rotation developing East of Roatan. Wow this is interesting.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

EDIT: I got a little excited, it does look mid level and removed from the llc based on shear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#865 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:50 pm

:uarrow: Lol, yeah blp, it's a lot of fun to watch so we can get carried away. But I think the shear is way too high now. In addition to the shear the low level steering winds are very fast, at 15-20 knots according to CIMSS. That's why that one LLC went flying towards Belize so fast ahead of the MLC. IMO this is shredded wheat now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#866 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:55 pm

It was the GFS that was developing it into a hurricane and moving it toward SW Florida. I wouldn't call that a "hit". Euro kept it weak the whole time and drove it west into Nicaragua/Honduras or the southern Yucatan.

By the way, I see two LLCs now. One is about 50 miles off the coast of Belize, the other is around 16.2N/85.7W. The one farther east looks more impressive now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#867 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:It was the GFS that was developing it into a hurricane and moving it toward SW Florida. I wouldn't call that a "hit". Euro kept it weak the whole time and drove it west into Nicaragua/Honduras or the southern Yucatan.

By the way, I see two LLCs now. One is about 50 miles off the coast of Belize, the other is around 16.2N/85.7W. The one farther east looks more impressive now.


Yeah originally, even further back the GFS had that Florida thing. But after that it had the basic track and strength that panned out: a weak disturbance getting east of the Yucatan and intensifying moderately as it meandered. Actually all of the models had that general forecast except the euro which was the worst on this one. I can get the forecast charts to show it if anyone is interested.

As for Hanna, not this time around. This is done. Unless it does the scenario you described earlier, lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#868 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:23 pm

I just want to mention the one last-ditch scenario for Hanna since it has been so persistent. All of the models have the steering winds in that area shifting to south and then southwest overnight into tomorrow. Should that happen there's always the chance that most of the circulation could stay over water while moving northward off of Belize. But all of the models still keep pretty high shear there so I can't see how staying offshore would save it anyway.
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#869 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:10 pm

That spin east of Roatan is looking more and more defined but lacking convection and is a rather small circulation. How can we know for sure if that is at the surface or not?

Meanwhile the "spit out LLC" off to the west approaching Belize looks to be not as defined but clouds could be obscuring it.

If it is an LLC east of Roatan, could it be taking over?
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#870 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:21 pm

gatorcane wrote:That spin east of Roatan is looking more and more defined but lacking convection and is a rather small circulation. How can we know for sure if that is at the surface or not?

Meanwhile the "spit out LLC" off to the west approaching Belize looks to be not as defined but clouds could be obscuring it.

If it is an LLC east of Roatan, could it be taking over?


We don't have enough obs there to figure out what's going on by Roatan for sure. But as I said before, steering winds are starting to veer northward, so if there is enough remnant vorticity at mid and low levels there and it starts moving NNW or N it could redevelop, but the models show too much shear in that area. The spit out LLC is meaningless now. It's dissipating and is not part of the picture anymore.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#871 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:36 pm

It decoupled due to shear. The vortex at 16 will poof.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#872 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:05 pm

Sanibel wrote:It decoupled due to shear. The vortex at 16 will poof.


That more western vortex is sandwich meat. The LLC/MLC combo to watch is at 16.2N 85.8W (which gatorcane and wxman57 identified earlier). That's looking pretty good, I'm assuming because it's still south of the nasty shear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#873 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:30 pm

A low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Storm Hanna, is
located over the western Gulf of Honduras and is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low is expected to move
inland over Belize by early Wednesday, and significant
redevelopment is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#874 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:A low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Storm Hanna, is
located over the western Gulf of Honduras and is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low is expected to move
inland over Belize by early Wednesday, and significant
redevelopment is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent


I agree significant redevelopment is unlikely but I think they're getting the forward movement wrong again like they did last night. It's not moving west. It's turning to the north-northwest. But as I keep saying, that won't save it as long as the shear stays so high north of it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#875 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:35 pm

Euro had the boomerang track long range a week ago, and then dropped it mid range, which (as Hammy has noted) seems to be a problem with the model this year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#876 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:50 pm

tolakram wrote:Euro had the boomerang track long range a week ago, and then dropped it mid range, which (as Hammy has noted) seems to be a problem with the model this year.


Yeah but it never had much intensity at all. I only remember one run where it had a closed low and that was a really big closed isobar, ridiculously large, covering half the western Caribbean. The rest of the time it had some vorticity but no closed isobar. I thought it screwed the pooch on this storm.

The GFS, CMC and NAVGEM all had explosive intensity as it meandered south of western Cuba. We all saw yesterday how, if Hanna had been just 50-100 miles north of its path, would have likely exploded into a formidable hurricane. It was that close. But the euro never even saw a TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#877 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:09 pm

As far as current trends, look at how the convection has dropped off tremendously. Low level winds are blowing hard westward and mid to upper level winds are blowing hard northeastward and eastward. This is really getting shredded. Don't see anything that can save it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#878 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:01 pm

It burst at landfall. It was just collecting itself for overwater strengthening when it hit land. A tiny little burst.
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