ATL: Ex-NINE - Models

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ATL: Ex-NINE - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:27 am

Only models here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 20, 2014 5:30 am

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#3 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:52 am

SFWMD graphic:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#4 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:42 am

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#5 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:11 am

00z GGEM still had it headed toward the Panhandle eventually, talk about an outlier?
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#6 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:19 am

The 00z run of the China CMA has it moving ESE into the Western Carib. Sea by the 27th then takes it northward deepening to Cat 1 Hurricane by the 30th at a position near 24N 87W moving due north!
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#7 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:17 am

I guess Central FLorida needs to look at this
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#8 Postby wyq614 » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:44 am

Dean4Storms wrote:The 00z run of the China CMA has it moving ESE into the Western Carib. Sea by the 27th then takes it northward deepening to Cat 1 Hurricane by the 30th at a position near 24N 87W moving due north!


27th? You mean 7 days later? and what's the link?
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#9 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:20 am

12Z GFS showing the system crossing through the FL straits in around 4-5 days and getting absorbed by the front...would bring a lot of rain to South Florida.

But it is again, like the 00Z, showing some energy getting left behind and what looks like an intensifying cyclone in the NW Caribbean moving slowly north in 7 days and look at that trough over the Midwest :eek:

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#10 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:28 am

Down to 975MB on the GFS High res at 180 hours and moving slowly NNW. Holy crap! Good thing it is getting into the long-range. :eek:

Note: this is NOT the BOC system

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Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#11 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:28 am

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12z GFS ... 156 hours...
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#12 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:31 am

Turns into SW Florida at 240 hours and is quite intense. Wow I hope the GFS is wrong. That is a very intense cyclone. Note this is not the BOC system.

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Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#13 Postby psyclone » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:37 am

what's that like the 47th hurricane the GFS has sent to Florida this year? I hope the GFS gets a much needed tune up.
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#14 Postby crownweather » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:37 am

Am wondering if the GFS may be up to its old tricks of handing off the energy too quickly and that the end result may be one very slow and meandering storm rather than the 2 that the GFS is progging.

gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS showing the system crossing through the FL straits in around 4-5 days and getting absorbed by the front...would bring a lot of rain to South Florida.

But it is again, like the 00Z, showing some energy getting left behind and what looks like an intensifying cyclone in the NW Caribbean moving slowly north in 7 days and look at that trough over the Midwest :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#15 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:37 am

if its not the invest system.then shouldnt it be in the global models thread
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#16 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:40 am

jlauderdal wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Down to 975MB on the GFS High res at 180 hours and moving slowly NNW. Holy crap! Good thing it is getting into the long-range. :eek:

Note: this is NOT the BOC system

[img]http://i59.tinypic.com/9ztws4.jp[/i]

if its not the invest system.then shouldnt it be in the global models thread


93L gets booted out to sea... This is a classic GFS late season blowup...
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Re:

#17 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:41 am

GFS has been nothing but smoke and mirrors so what's happened in the last 12 hrs is all modeling has lessened the threat this week to virtually a frontal passage and created an new phantom for 10 days from now.

Where's my 50s..this phantom stuff is getting old..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#18 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:54 am

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12z GFS... Hurricane landfall SW Florida/Ft Myers... 240 Hours... I'm moving this to Global Models thread...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#19 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:01 pm

it's IMO part of the invest system and heres how I'll explain it

The surface low gets ejected while the MLC stays behind indicating major wind shear and a new low forms under the MLC which both the Euro and GFS are showing which is why this belongs here, its one convoluted setup that could lend to 2 tropical cyclones from one invest

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Re:

#20 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:03 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS showing the system crossing through the FL straits in around 4-5 days and getting absorbed by the front...would bring a lot of rain to South Florida.

But it is again, like the 00Z, showing some energy getting left behind and what looks like an intensifying cyclone in the NW Caribbean moving slowly north in 7 days and look at that trough over the Midwest :eek:

http://i59.tinypic.com/2hn2fxi.jpg


That GFS run, starting from that frame until it's Florida impact, reminds me of the early runs for Tropical Storm Gamma in 2005, with some differences of course in track and intensity, but they are generally similar. Also, Gamma was a huge bust.

Tropical Storm Gamma, November 18 2005:

Image
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