ATL: Ex-NINE - Models

#61 Postby **chaser1** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:33 pm

UK too?? Well, your right - thats a good deal of concensus...... at least with regards to 93L. Now, with regard to intensity there still seems to be a spread with the UK and EURO a little weaker than the other models I think. I'm looking forward to having a fairly well determined center fix and established motion, so all models will be better ingested with a more accurate point of origin, motion, and strength.

#62 Postby **chaser1** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:33 pm

For fun, I just threw this out, but in the "discussion" thread, but perhaps more fitting here with the models

Alright, I'm throwing my $5.58 lunch money "All In"! Am betting on a Max. strength GOM system as: T.S. - 60mph, 992mb Wed. night ANY TAKERS?????

#63 Postby **Jevo** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:34 pm

12z NAVGEM +144

Hurricaneman · #64 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:35 pm

Has any system ever done what is modeled or is this rarified air and setting a new precident by starting in the BOC and ending up in the western Caribbean just to hit Florida as I can't recall one looking back at past record

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#65 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:I think we have a consensus among the models now that UKMET completes the 12z package.

http://oi57.tinypic.com/t5nb51.jpg

Isn't that the 00Z UKMET run?

The RUC site doesn't seem to have updated it's model graphics to 12Z yet.

#66 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:46 pm

gatorcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:I think we have a consensus among the models now that UKMET completes the 12z package.

http://oi57.tinypic.com/t5nb51.jpg

Isn't that the 00Z UKMET run?

The RUC site doesn't seem to have updated it's model graphics to 12Z yet.

Yep you are right. Chaser erase what I said.

#67 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:34 pm

we do NOT have a strong consensus.

We have the EC/UKMET going with a frontal low while the other models are going with tropical development in the NW Caribbean. That is a major difference

#68 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:37 pm

12Z UKMET is available:

blp · #69 Postby **blp** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:49 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET is available:

[]http://i62.tinypic.com/16gfo9g.jpg[/img]

Gator, that is stronger than previous but still attached to front. Interesting...

#70 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 5:08 pm

18Z GFS rolling now appears to be doing what it did on the 12Z which is spinning off some energy ENE along the front and then taking the low-level center across the Yucatan and leaving it behind in the NW Caribbean where it intensifies. It is ramping it up by 120 hours south of Western Cuba, more north and faster than the 12Z :eek:

144 hours below:

wzrgirl1 · #71 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 5:13 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS rolling now appears to be doing what it did on the 12Z which is spinning off some energy ENE along the front and then taking the low-level center across the Yucatan and leaving it behind in the NW Caribbean where it intensifies. It is ramping it up by 129 hours south of Western Cuba, more north and faster than the 12Z

Gator,

Can you send a link to that?

I see you did thanks!!

#72 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 5:13 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS rolling now appears to be doing what it did on the 12Z which is spinning off some energy ENE along the front and then taking the low-level center across the Yucatan and leaving it behind in the NW Caribbean where it intensifies. It is ramping it up by 129 hours south of Western Cuba, more north and faster than the 12Z

Gator,

Can you send a link to that?

I posted an image above.

#73 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 5:19 pm

Down to 990MB on the 18Z GFS high-res by 150 hours moving slowly north just south of Western Cuba.

#74 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 5:22 pm

Crossing Western Cuba by 168 hours around 995MB (GFS high res) heading slowly north.

#75 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 5:29 pm

Landfall FL Keys at 192 hours heading slowly N or NNE:

#76 Postby **Jevo** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 5:30 pm

18z GFS +204

DESTRUCTION5 · #77 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 5:36 pm

Landfall yes but also much weaker the further north it gets..Similar to Euro..

Hurricaneman · #78 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 5:59 pm

The models seem to be trending more towards the split low situation and while in the next 3 to 5 days there may be a frontal lobe they stall the main energy south of Cuba or near the Yucatan channel so this may end up being a one two punch for South Florida or maybe even a little farther north

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#79 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:08 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The models seem to be trending more towards the split low situation and while in the next 3 to 5 days there may be a frontal lobe they stall the main energy south of Cuba or near the Yucatan channel so this may end up being a one two punch for South Florida or maybe even a little farther north

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yeah, it does seem consistent that significant vorticity is left behind on the reliable models after 5 days somewhere south of Cuba or east of the Yucatan. GFS is stronger while EURO is not as bullish in intensifying the leftover system at this time byond 120 hours.

#80 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:15 pm

The way the GFS has done this year frankly i have a hard buying anything on the model

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